220
AXPZ20 KNHC 141519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from near the Galapagos
Islands at 01N to 15N near SW Guatemala, moving westward at
15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W from 01N to 16N just
offshore SW Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120.5W from 02N to 18N,
moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 133.5W from 03N to 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 10N76W to across Costa Rica to 08N91.5W to
09N96W. The ITCZ extends from 09N96W to 10N101W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 10N104W to 12N118W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 11N122W to 11N132W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 11N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 84W and 91W,
from 11N to 13N between 91W and 94W, from 13N to 16.5N between
93W and 98W, from 10N to 16.5N between 99W and 107W, and from 09N
to 12.5N between 123W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of
California as troughing prevails over the Gulf of California and
near the Baja California Peninsula, with gentle winds south of
there. Slight seas are in the Gulf, except higher near the
entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
offshore waters of Mexico under weak surface ridging, except
locally moderate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and also near Cabo
San Lucas. Moderate seas prevail across the open waters.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high pressure
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to
strong Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens, which would build seas to rough there. Farther south,
moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo,
will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through midweek.
Fresh to locally strong S to SE winds will develop and pulse over
the northern Gulf of California early on Tue and continue
through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert
Southwest. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight in
the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American
waters, except locally rough south of the Equator and offshore
Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through late week as high
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to
fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of
Guatemala and El Salvador through midweek. Moderate to fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW
swell will continue to propagate through the South American
waters through the middle of this week, promoting rough seas
offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1036 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near
44N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the belt
from 11N to 17N. Moderate NE winds are in the NW corner from 17N
to 30N west of 135W, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W, and moderate
east of 100W. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail
across the waters south of 07N. Moderate seas in mixed swell
elsewhere, locally rough from 11N to 14N near 140W.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and mainly moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week
as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific, locally fresh to
20N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will
propagate through the southern waters promoting rough seas
south of 08N, through mid-week, then decaying through the end of
the week. A new N swell will arrive and lead to rough seas north
of 25N by midweek, decaying by the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky