331
AXPZ20 KNHC 092151
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered west of Cabo San Lazaro in
Baja California Sur near 24.4N 114.9W at 09/2100 UTC, moving
north- northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas are around 19 ft. Modest convection is noted with
90 nm to the southwest of the center. A turn toward the north is
anticipated tonight. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Fri. Flash flooding
is likely in portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas
of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona,
southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico.
Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, in
addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.

Newly named Tropical Storm Raymond is centered off the coast of
Guerrero in southern Mexico near 16.5N 101.7W at 09/2100 UTC,
moving west- northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late
Fri, followed by a northward turn by early Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of the storm is expected to be near
southern Baja California Sur Saturday and Sunday. Some strengthening
is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely over the
weekend. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will bring a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture from Raymond will
also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions
of the Southwest U.S. early next week. Swells generated by the
storm are expected to spread westward along the southwestern
coast of Mexico through Fri and reach southern Baja California
Sur on Sat. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla, Octave and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC
Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 16N99W, then resumes
SW of Priscilla near 15N120W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from
10N135W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical cyclones, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 90W, and from 11N to 14N
between 95W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla, and recently named Tropical Storm Raymond for
more details.

The offshore waters of Mexico continue to be impacted by the tropical
cyclone activity described above. Dangerous marine conditions are
present in the waters offshore Baja California Sur, including the
entrance to the Gulf of California, and the waters near the
Revillagigedo Islands due to both Priscilla, Raymond and the
remnant low of Octave centered about 100 nm southeast of Socorro
Island. Farther south, roughly between Acapulco and Cabo
Corrientes, there is a large area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Raymond. Outside
the direct influence of the tropical cyclones, moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
noted elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Light
and variable winds and slight seas dominate the N and central
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from the tropical cyclone activity
described above in the Special Features section, the main
forecast issue will be strong gap winds that will pulse across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. A long period
southerly swell is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft across these
waters. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather
pattern across most of the region for the remainder of this week
and into the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. Combined
seas may reach 8 ft off off Central America Sat and Sun primarily
due to SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla, and recently named Tropical Storm Raymond for
more details.

Outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones, a weak high
pressure dominates the remainder of the eastern Pacific forecast
waters. A weak 1016 mb low pressure system is analyzed near
22N138W, but no significant weather, winds or seas are associated
with this feature. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
moderate to locally rough seas are occurring south of the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure should build across the waters
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the wake of the tropical
cyclones during the weekend into early next week. The rough seas
in southerly swells over the southern waters will gradually decay
into the upcoming weekend. A new set of northerly swell,
bringing rough seas is forecast to propagate north of 25N and
west of 125W by the end of the weekend into early next week.
Farther south, SW swell will support combined seas to 8 ft south
of the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W early next week.

$$
Christensen