772
AXPZ20 KNHC 102129
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Cold, dry air and strong high
pressure are pooling across southern Mexico and the western Gulf
of America, and funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec
currently. This follows a cold front that moved through the area
overnight. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong
gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, consistent with the GFS model
initialization. The scatterometer pass shows strong winds or
greater already reaching up to 360 nm to the S-SW of Salina Cruz
at the southern terminus of the Tehuantepec isthmus. All
deterministic models are indicating gap winds will increase
further overnight, and it is plausible the current strong gales
will increase to minimal storm force winds late this evening into
the overnight hours. Winds and seas will begin to slowly
diminish Tue afternoon through Wed morning before falling below
gale force around midday Wed. Strong winds are then expected to
continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri.

Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: Large NW swell,
generated by deep low pressure across the NE Pacific in recent
days, continues to cover the waters north of 15N and west of 125W,
with wave heights ranging from 8 to 12 ft and wave periods
around 14 seconds. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft north of
20N through late Tue, but 8 to 9 ft wave heights will persist
from 07N to 20N west of 120W in a mix of the decaying NW swell
and shorter-period NE wave generated by trade wind flow. Looking
ahead, another round of large NW swell will enter the waters
south of 30N and east of 140W by late Wed associated with a cold
front approaching the area. The large swell will follow the front
which will reach from northern Baja California Norte to 13N140W
by late Fri.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W to 12N135W. The
ITCZ extends from 12N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N east of 85W, and
from 07N to 12N between 90W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong high pressure is building over north-central Mexico behind
the cold front moving through the Gulf of America. Lower pressure
is evident along the Gulf of California, supporting fresh NW
winds across the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec area.
Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California and 5 to
7 ft elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters outside of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, gap winds across Tehuantepec will diminish
below storm force early Tue, but gale force winds will continue
to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu. Winds and seas
will diminish further through Sat. Farther north, a cold front
will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California late
Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the
northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Fri. Fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front off Baja
California late Thu through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Swell generated from the gale-force gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are starting to reach the waters off northwest
Guatemala beyond 90 nm. Fresh NE to E gap winds and seas to 6 ft
may be ongoing across the Gulf of Papagayo, supported by high
pressure building north of the area. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas in S swell are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the Pacific coasts of
Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night and
morning through midweek across the Papagayo region as a cold
front sweeps through the Gulf of America and the NW Caribbean,
and strong high pressure builds north of the front. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds will briefly occur across and
downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca and south of El Salvador Tue
night into midday Wed. Offshore of Guatemala, expect fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and very rough seas tonight through
Wed as a significant storm force wind event occurs in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Rough seas will expand southeastward to well
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala early Tue into Wed and
persist through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell.

A frontal boundary extends from the coast of Oregon to near
30N140W where is stationary, then farther south to 28N139W and to
20N145W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass did not indicated
a closed low near 28N140W as previously suspected. A few showers
and thunderstorms are active along this boundary. Weak ridging
persists west of the front to Baja California, north of 15N. A
few showers and thunderstorms are active near a surface trough
analyzed south of Clarion Island near 115W from 12N to 16N. Fresh
winds and seas to 8 ft are associated with this trough from 12N
to 17N between 112W and 120W. An upper low centered near 05N105W
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 07N to 12N
between 90W and 100W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
seas in a mix of NW an S swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the main forecast issue east of 110W will be
the plume of winds and swell generated by the storm-force wind
event developing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas east of 110W from 02N to 14N through
mid week. The other impacts to seas elsewhere are described
above in the Special Features section. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move across the waters north of 15N later in the week.
Strong winds and and rough seas will follow this front.

$$
Christensen