143
AXPZ20 KNHC 210829
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A cold front enters the discussion waters near 30N119.5W to
25N126W to 25N140W. The front has ushered in a large set of NW
swell. Very rough seas greater than 12 ft with wave periods of
12-14 seconds will cover the northern waters N of 29N and W of
128W early this morning. Seas greater than 12 ft will then shift
SE across the waters N of 26N and W of 117W through Sat before
subsiding below 12 ft. Seas will peak near 17 ft tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N98W to
09N113W to 06N122W. The ITCZ extends from 06N122W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 09N between 79W and 84W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 07N between 134W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front is over the waters just NW of Guadalupe Island.
Moderate winds are just E and west of the front. Moderate winds
also W of the Revillagigedo Islands, as well as the entrance to
the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds generally prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range NW of Guadalupe Island
and in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere west of the Baja California
peninsula and southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 4-5
ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft
or less over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a cold front is over the Baja California Norte
offshore waters with moderate NW winds. A secondary push of cold
air accompanied by an area of low pressure will quickly follow
tonight through Sat night, generating fresh NW to W winds with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of Baja
California Norte. The front will usher in a set of large NW
swell, which will spread over the waters west of the baja
California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo islands
through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N gap
winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat night
to Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next week.
Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere during the
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front extends from 30N119.5W to 25N126W to 25N140W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of the front. A 1032 mb high
pressure is centered near 35N142W. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to
near 21N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 10
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

The cold front will progress quickly southeastward today, and is
forecast to dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches 20N. Fresh to
strong winds north of 25N on today will diminish below fresh Sat.
Seas 8 ft or greater generated from the frontal system will
propagate across the area, covering much of the discussion waters
N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before starting to slowly
subside early next week. The area of high pressure northwest of
the discussion waters will weaken tonight and Saturday. This
will loosen the pressure gradient over the tradewind zone, with
the trades diminishing.

$$
AL