412
AXPZ20 KNHC 200248
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fausto: Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near
12.6N 114.7W at 20/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently
14 to 15 ft or around 4.5 m. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 106W and 123W. Fausto
is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion with a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected through
Tue. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wed before
gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week. Steady
strengthening followed by a period of rapid intensification is
forecast during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast
to become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near
24.1N 126.8W at 20/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 21 ft or 6.5 m. Scattered moderate convection is between
75 nm and 240 nm in the NE quadrant, and elsewhere between 150
nm and 660 nm in the N quadrant. Elida is moving toward the
north-northwest. A turn toward the north at a slightly faster
speed is expected tonight through Mon. The system is then
expected to continue northward but gradually slow down over the
following day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is
forecast to become a remnant low late Mon or early Tue. Swells
generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next
several days. These swells will likely result in life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 10N74W to 10N84W to 07N98W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N98W to 11N109W. The monsoon trough continues from SSW of
Elida from 14N126W to beyond 08N140W. Other than the convection
mentioned above with Elida and Fausto, scattered moderate
isolated strong is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 86W and
from 07N to 12N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 270 nm SSE of the monsoon trough
between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are noted in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters, with locally moderate to
fresh E to SE winds south of 20N and west of 110W near the
Revillagigedo Islands on the outer periphery of Fausto. Seas are
slight in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance, and
moderate elsewhere, except rough near the Revillagigedo Islands
due to Fausto just south of the area.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N
116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W
Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening,
16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto
will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late
Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida west of the Baja California
waters will move to 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon
evening, weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 31.6N
127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed
morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at times through the
week with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds will
pulse in the central and northern Gulf of California through Mon.
Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by the end of the
week.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 09N88W. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere. Seas are moderate across the offshore waters, except
slight in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active
convection is present near the monsoon trough from western
Colombia to offshore Guatemala as described above with locally
higher winds and seas possible in any thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri,
with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are
expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos
Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are
forecast.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate the open waters.
Moderate the fresh SE to S winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail
across the waters south of 07N between 104W and 120W. Moderate to
fresh winds and locally rough seas are near an area of disturbed
weather at 11N103W with convection present as described above.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the
remainder of the waters away from Elida and Fausto.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N
116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W
Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening,
16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto
will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late
Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 26.0N 127.3W
Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low
north of the area near 31.6N 127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue
evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening.
Also, moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the
south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually
spread northward through the early part of the week. Little
change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of
the open waters at least into midweek.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

$$
Lewitsky