574
AXPZ20 KNHC 231459
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Vance is centered near 10.7N 102.1W at 23/1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100
kt. Seas are peaking near 30 ft or 10.0 m. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 150 nm of the center. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 03N
to 16N between 95W and 106W. Vance is moving toward the north-
northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the
weekend. Steady intensification will continue during the next 24
hours, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane
tonight. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin
affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting
minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale
force through early this morning, and again tonight across the
Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N98W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N110W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and east of 83W, and
from 00N to 06N between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh
winds are west of the Baja California peninsula, locally strong
winds are from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia, extending
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.
Moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are over the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.3N 102.5W this evening,
12.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 13.3N 103.3W Sat evening, 14.4N 103.6W
Sun morning, 15.3N 103.9W Sun evening, and 15.9N 104.2W Mon
morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 16.6N 104.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale
force through early morning and again tonight across the
Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight
pressure gradient over the region. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds
offshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to across the
Baja California waters through tonight before diminishing,
locally strong from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia today. Rough
seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will
spread across those waters tonight through Sat. Moderate seas
will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are over and
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters,
except locally rough seas offshore southern Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands today through early Sat as
winds freshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Vance.

Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas
in northerly swells are from 10N to 25N and W of 120W. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.3N 102.5W this evening,
12.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 13.3N 103.3W Sat evening, 14.4N 103.6W
Sun morning, 15.3N 103.9W Sun evening, and 15.9N 104.2W Mon
morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 16.6N 104.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, fresh winds and rough seas
over the W-central waters will decrease through the evening.
Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters
Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere. A frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters
may send rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into
early next week. Combined seas may build to rough over the
S-central waters early next week.

$$
AL