382
AXPZ20 KNHC 141551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the
waters N of 08N and W of 115W will be reinforced tonight through
Tue with new large NW swell generated behind a cold front
approaching the NW waters. This new NW swell will increase seas
in excess of 12 ft across the NW waters starting this evening,
with seas building to 12 to 18 ft N of 24N and W of 131W by Sun
evening, then continue to propagate southeastward and cover the
area N of 20N140W to 24N128W to 30N120W with seas of 12 to 17 ft
by Mon evening. Seas will then begin to diminish slightly Mon
night through Tue evening before new N swell enters the northern
waters early Wed, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through Thu
morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07.5N85W to 00.5N102W. The ITCZ extends
from 00.5N102W to 02S114.5W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 84W and 93W, and from 03N to 08N between 133W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side
of the trough and ITCZ between 98W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the
waters W of 110W this morning, producing gentle to moderate
northerly winds across the Baja California waters and inside the
Gulf of California, with locally fresh winds nearshore and to
the SW of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell
offshore Baja California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except
3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW to N
gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning before diminishing. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are forecast there Sun night through
Tue morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse on either side of Baja California Sur to near Cabo
Corrientes through the weekend, then again starting Tue. A cold
front will approach Baja California Norte early next week with
fresh to strong winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf of
California and west of the northern peninsula through early Tue,
then will diminish as the front moves through while weakening. A
reinforcing surge may bring fresh to strong winds N of 30N Wed.
Rough NW swell off Baja California Norte will linger through
early Sun. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters W of
110W through early next week toward mid-week, with very rough
seas 12 ft and greater N of Punta Eugenia.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the
Papagayo region extending offshore to near 90W this morning,
producing seas to around 8 ft. Moderate north to northeast winds
are in the the Gulf of Panama and become fresh to the S and SW of
the Azuero Peninsula, where seas have built to 6 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds, and mainly 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds and rough seas
will persist across the Papagayo region through early Sun, then
pulse to moderate to fresh into early next week. Fresh to strong
winds may return there by early Tue. Moderate to fresh N-NE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at times. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change
little through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

Weakening high pressure prevails across the waters W of 110W this
morning, ahead of an approaching cold front that is moving near
30N140W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted from
roughly 04N to 24N between 114W and 140W, with mainly moderate
or weaker winds elsewhere. Rough seas to 9 ft in fading NW swell
covers the waters mainly N of 08N and W of 115W, with moderate
seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell
forecast to enter the NW waters this evening, an associated cold
front will approach 30N140W later this morning, reaching from
30N129W to 22N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong winds behind
it, then from 30N120W to 18N140W early Mon, and from near Punta
Eugenia to 15N130W by early Tue, with winds N of 20N behind it
diminishing as the front weakens. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front and the belt of moderate to fresh trades N of
the ITCZ will increase to at least fresh to strong early next
week. Rough to very rough seas in NW swell will accompany the
increasing trades.

$$
Stripling