211
AXPZ20 KNHC 051605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 21.8N 120.4W at 05/1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is present from 18N
to 25N and between 117W and 124W. A general NW motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. A gradual weakening
trend is expected to continue for the next several days. Swells
generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern
California for the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 108W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N,
moving west at 5-10 kt. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section
for convection info.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N109W, then
continues from 14N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring from 00N to 15N and east of 111W
and from 03N to 15N between 122W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie to the offshore waters
of Baja California, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident across the remaining offshore waters
of Mexico.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie will move to 22.5N 121.2W this
evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 23.3N 122.1W Sun
morning, 24.1N 123.1W Sun evening, 24.7N 124.2W Mon morning,
25.4N 125.4W Mon evening, and 26.5N 126.5W Tue morning. Marie
will weaken to a tropical depression over 29.4N 128.1W by early
Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop
in the offshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of
California early next week as Marie moves away. Looking ahead,
the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by
the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft across
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther south, moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of 04N.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off
Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher
seas.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient is expected to
tighten resulting in strong gap winds and locally rough seas.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
over the next several days, decreasing some Sun and Mon.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Aside from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh
to strong cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are
occurring from 18N to 28N and west of 136W associated with the
outer eastern quadrant of Hurricane Karina that continues to move
away from the eastern Pacific basin. Meanwhile in the eastern
waters, a cross equatorial southerly swell is producing seas to
8 ft south of 08N and between 91W and 112W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie will move to 22.5N 121.2W this
evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 23.3N 122.1W Sun
morning, 24.1N 123.1W Sun evening, 24.7N 124.2W Mon morning,
25.4N 125.4W Mon evening, and 26.5N 126.5W Tue morning. Marie
will weaken to a tropical depression over 29.4N 128.1W by early
Wed.

The cross equatorial southerly swell region west of the Galapagos
Islands is expected to diminish below 8 ft tonight. Meanwhile,
an area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern
Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system
has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.

$$
ERA