051
AXPZ20 KNHC 072147
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 19.8N 110.1W at 07/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with
gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is active within 120 nm of the center
of Priscilla. A northwestward motion is expected for the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected
to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja
California Sur through Thu. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Wed and continue through the
rest of the week.

From today into Wed, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected in
southern Baja California Sur, with local storm totals up to 4
inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This
rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in
areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1
to 2 inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions
of west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within
the areas terrain. From late this week into this weekend,
moisture from Priscilla leads to heavy rainfall and a flash flood
risk over portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest.

Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.3N 118.8W at 07/2100
UTC, moving east-southeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active within 120 nm in the
southwest semicircle of the storm. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next day or two, and Octave is expected to dissipate by
Thu night as the center of the storm moves to the south of
Socorro Island.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1007 mb
low pressure near 14N93W, then on to 15N99W. Another segment
continues from 14N123W to 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 12N to 15N between 93W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

The broad eye of Priscilla continues to move northward and away
from Socorro Island, although the southern inner core of the
hurricane continues to pummel the island. The northern rain band
that was over the southern portion of Baja California Sur has
mostly moved offshore. Dangerous marine conditions continue to
impact the waters from Michoacan to Jalisco and toward Socorro
Island, Los Cabos and the southern portion of the Gulf of
California. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms, fresh to
strong winds and locally rough seas persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon, associated with a 1008 mb low
pressure area off the coast near the border of Guatemala and the
Mexican state of Chiapas. Moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, except for gentle
breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 20.7N 111.9W Wed morning, 21.8N
113.2W Wed afternoon. Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm
west of Cabo San Lazaro near 22.9N 114.4W by Thu morning, then
continue to 24.2N 115.2W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 115.5W Fri
morning, and 26.7N 115.4W Fri afternoon. Priscilla will weaken to
a remnant low as it moves onshore just north of Punta Eugenia
Sat afternoon. Farther south, Tropical Storm Octave is about 300
nm to the southwest of Clarion Island, near 15.3N 118.8W at 2 PM
PDT, and is moving east-southeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Octave is forecast to still
be a small tropical storm around 120 nm south of Socorro Island
Thu afternoon, before weakening to a remnant low and dissipating
by Fri morning. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is
expected to become better organized off the southern coast of
Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more favorable for gradual development of this system
later this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the weekend while moving west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, near
and parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Interests along
the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 48 hours, and high chance through the
next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. A 1007 mb low pressure area
continues to become more organized off the coast near the border
of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. North of the
monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
noted, except moderate S to SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore
waters near the low pres. Moderate southerly winds and moderate
seas prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the north of
it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region
bringing moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.2N 117.7W Wed morning, 15.7N 115.6W
Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 16.6N 113.1W
Thu morning, 17.4N 110.5W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri
morning. Farther south, southerly swell to 8 ft will impact
waters near the Equator between 95W and 120W through Wed. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen