541
AXPZ20 KNHC 302206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is showing some signs of
organization, but it is not yet clear if the system has a well-
defined center of circulation. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from 14N to 18N between 116W to
123W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by early next week while moving westward at around 10
mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The
system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin during
the middle to latter part of next week. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W, from 09N northward
through eastern El Salvador and western Honduras into the western
Caribbean Sea. Convection associated with this wave largely
remains in the Caribbean.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W, from 06N northward
into south-central Mexico, moving toward the west around 5 to 10
kt. Convection associated with this tropical wave is described
below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 120.5W, from 07N northward
through a 1010 mb low centered near 14.5N120.5W, EP93, to 19N,
moving toward the west around 5 kt. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to a 1010 mb low
centered near 14.5N120.5W, EP93, to 10N133W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from 08N to 16N between 91W and
114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N
east of 87W, and from 07N to 12N between 123W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring off the
coast of southern Mexico surrounding a tropical wave analyzed
along 98W. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas are
occurring near this activity. Moderate NE gap winds and moderate
seas are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, supported by the
pressure gradient between a trough in the Bay of Campeche and
lower pressure along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, building high
pressure over the eastern Pacific is leading to moderate NW
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas offshore of Baja California, as noted
via scatterometer satellite data. A surface trough has been
analyzed from the northern Gulf of California through Baja
California Sur, and gentle to moderate NW winds and slight seas
prevail in the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds will
occur offshore of Baja California through early next week as high
pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave will move westward offshore of southern
Mexico this weekend, accompanied by fresh to locally strong E
winds and building seas. An area of low pressure could form from
this system early next week, and it is likely to become a
tropical depression by the middle of next week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to SE winds are occurring from the Gulf of Papagayo
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, behind
a tropical wave moving westward offshore of southern Mexico.
South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail, as noted on recent scatterometer data. A long period SW
swell is moving through the Central and South America waters this
weekend, leading to 4 to 6 ft seas. Recent altimeter data show 7
to 8 ft seas are occurring south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a long period SW swell will support rough seas
offshore of Ecuador and Colombia through tonight before seas
subside on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate E winds will occur in the
Gulf of Papagayo through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala this weekend as a tropical wave moves westward offshore
of southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong NE to
E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Sun night through
the middle of next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S to SW
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is centered
near 23.5N124W, and a surface trough extends to the northwest and
to the east. The pressure gradient between these features and a
1021 mb high centered near 31N136W is supporting moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas north of 25N
between 120W and 130W, as observed on recent scatterometer data.
Broad ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific north
of the monsoon trough, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to
6 ft seas elsewhere north of 20N, and locally fresh NE winds
south of 20N. Recent altimeter satellite data and buoy
observations show 6 to 8 ft seas south of 20N. South of the
monsoon trough, a long-period SW swell is supporting 8 to 9 ft
seas between 90W and 125W, as observed via altimeter data.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds prevail over these
waters.

For the forecast, rough seas in S to SW swell south of 10N will
slowly subside into Sun. A new S to SW swell will promote rough
seas south of the equator Sun into the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, rough seas may develop north of 05N between 100W and
120W late Sun into next week as a potential tropical depression
develops offshore of southern Mexico by the middle of next week.
Looking ahead, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
an area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing some
signs of organization, but it is not yet clear if the system has
a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by early next week while
moving westward at around 10 mph across the western part of the
eastern Pacific basin. There is a high chance of tropical
formation within the next 48 hours.

$$
ADAMS