712
AXPZ20 KNHC 290835
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 21.0N
108.4W at 29/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical
cyclone with convection limited to the NE to E side of the
system. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted between
45 nm and 420 nm in the NE quadrant including over a large
portion of mainland Mexico. Vance is moving toward the north-
northeast. A turn to the north, followed by a decrease in
forward speed, is expected over the next 24 hours. Vance should
gradually weaken today and is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low late today. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with
Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this
week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across
central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far
northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain.
Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 03N94W to 06N120W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 00.5N to 06.5N between 102W and 110W,
and from 00N to 09N between 115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance between Cabo Corrientes
and the entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip
of Baja California Sur.

Fresh to near gale force northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as noted on recently ASCAT scatterometer data. Rough
seas are likely occurring with these winds. Light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of
California, except higher in the southern Gulf through the
entrance due to swells from Vance. Elsewhere, winds are mainly
moderate or weaker with moderate seas over the open waters off
Mexico.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will weaken to a tropical
depression near 22.0N 108.0W this afternoon, become a remnant
low and move to 23.4N 108.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri
afternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh
to strong through the next several days, mainly during the
overnight into the early morning hours. A developing low pressure
and frontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula
waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential for
increasing winds and building seas. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds
look develop across the Gulf of California early next week in
the wake of the system. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas will prevail otherwise.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf
of Papagayo. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Panama as seen by
recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas generally prevail.

For the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through tonight,
then pulse to fresh to strong thereafter. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end
of the week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas
may briefly build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the
end of the week through Sat night as winds freshen there on Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A frontal trough is over the NW waters from 30N137W to 1015 mb
low pressure near 28N138W to 24.5N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is possible from 26N to 30N between 129W and 140W.
Fresh winds and locally rough seas are within 60 nm east of the
front. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 18N. Moderate
to fresh winds are found S of 04N between 108W and 120W as
confirmed by recent ASCAT data. Rough seas are found across these
same waters. Across the remainder of the waters, winds are
moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast, cross equatorial SW swell will continue to
support rough seas over the S-central waters while mixing with
distant and old NE swells generated by Tropical Storm Vance.
These rough seas are expected to linger through early Sat. A
developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters
N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with
the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the
system shifts eastward. Looking ahead, a large set of rough to
very rough NW swell may impact the NW waters early next week
behind a cold front, highest near 30N140W.

$$
Lewitsky