158
AXPZ20 KNHC 312148
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.5N 125.8W at 31/2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between
124W-128W. This general motion is expected to continue through
the forecast period. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
remain possible through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening
trend on Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect
portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread
northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A 1005 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning
while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-17N between
98W-114W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and largest seas 11 ft.
Because of this system, a Storm Warning is in effect for the
zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest
seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may
stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to
near-gale conditions and large to very large swell are likely to
occur in these offshore zones from Thu through Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N-19N with a
1005 mb low at 13N107W, moving west around 10 kt. This system is
also denoted Invest EP95. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is occurring from 06N-17N between 98W-114W.

Another tropical wave axis is along 94W from 05N-15N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N-10N between 90W-97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama at 08N82W to
12N117W. After ending southeast of Karina, the monsoon trough
resumes again from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-17N between
98W-114W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N-10N between 90W-97W, north of 05N between 81W-88W,
and from 04N-10W between 116W-130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest EP95.

A 1005 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds
over the Mexican Offshore Zones of 25 kt and seas to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over
Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from
06N-17N between 98W-114W.

For the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning while it moves
steadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm
Warning is in effect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Highest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While
the core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja
California Sur, fresh to near-gale conditions and large to very
large swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu
through Sat. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters with seas 5-6
ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted north of 05N between 81W-88W.

For the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the
next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.

Aside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are
moderate to locally fresh with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.7N 127.2W Tue morning,
18.1N 129.2W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 131.2W Wed morning, 18.9N
133.1W Wed afternoon, 19.3N 135.0W Thu morning, and 19.6N 136.8W
Thu afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves
to 20.3N 140.7W Fri afternoon. Invest EP95 is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow morning
while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this
system, Storm Warnings are in effect for the High Seas waters
adjacent to the Mexico Offshore zone. The system should continue
moving northwestward reaching around 23N120W by Sat night.

$$
Landsea