306
AXPZ20 KNHC 090921
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 23.3N 114.1W at
09/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 26 ft (8.0 m). Convection
continues to weaken as the system moves over cooler waters.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm north and
south of the center. Priscilla is moving toward the NW and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by
a turn toward the north- northwest and north later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is
expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja
California Sur through today. Weakening is forecast, and
Priscilla is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.
Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific
coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal
southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in
addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 16.9N 111.7W at 09/0900
UTC, moving east-northeast at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft (4.5 m).
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
210 nm in the W quadrant. Octave is moving toward the ENE and this
motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn
toward the east prior to dissipation later today or tonight.
Gradual weakening is expected, with Octave forecast to become a post-
tropical remnant low later today, and dissipate by tonight.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90): A broad area of
low pressure located near the coast of southern Mexico is
producing a large and persistent area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in these areas should
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, the system is expected to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
through the end of the week, which could lead to localized
flooding, as well as increasing winds and seas across the
offshore waters. This system has a high chance for tropical
development within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N85W to a 1005 mb low pres (EP90) near 15N99W to 15N101W. The
monsoon trough resumes near 12N120W to 08N135W and beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 03N
and east of 95W. Similar convection is found from 05N to 10N and
west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla and Octave, and low pressure system (EP90) south
of Mexico with a high chance of development.

The offshore waters of Mexico continue to be impacted by the
tropical cyclone activity described above. Dangerous marine
conditions are present in the waters offshore Baja California
Sur, including the entrance to the Gulf of California, and the
waters near the Revillagigedo Islands due to both Priscilla and
Octave. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms, fresh
to locally strong winds and locally rough seas are present south
of Mexico in association with a 1005 mb low pressure area,
Invest EP90. Moderate to locally fresh breezes and moderate seas
are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, except for
gentle breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Priscilla is near 23.3N 114.1W
at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Priscilla will move to 24.3N 114.8W this
afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 25.5N 115.1W Fri
morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.4N 115.2W Fri afternoon,
27.0N 114.9W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave is near 16.9N 111.7W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving east-northeast at 16 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Octave will weaken to a remnant low near
17.4N 109.7W this afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Also, low
pressure, Invest EP90, located south of Mexico with a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds
and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Conditions may finally
improve over the offshore waters early next week once all three
systems pass or dissipate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. A long
period southerly swell is producing seas of 5-8 ft across these
waters. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region for the remainder of this week and into
the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. The southerly swell
will gradually subside into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla and Octave, and low pressure system (EP90) south
of Mexico with a high chance of development.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storms Priscilla and Octave,
a weak high pressure regime dominates the remainder of the
tropical eastern Pacific. A weak 1016 mb low pressure system is
analyzed in the western waters, but no significant weather,
winds or seas are associated with this feature. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas
are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Priscilla is near 23.3N 114.1W
at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Priscilla will move to 24.3N 114.8W this
afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 25.5N 115.1W Fri
morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.4N 115.2W Fri afternoon,
27.0N 114.9W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave is near 16.9N 111.7W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving east-northeast at 16 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Octave will weaken to a remnant low near
17.4N 109.7W this afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Also, low
pressure, Invest EP90, located south of Mexico with a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing
winds and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. High pressure
should build across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in
the wake of the tropical/potential systems during the weekend
into early next week. The southerly swells to rough over the
southern waters will gradually decay into the upcoming weekend.
New northerly, rough swell may propagate into the N-central
waters by the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Delgado