133
AXPZ20 KNHC 281607 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Within this area of low pressure, a tropical wave is
analyzed along 112W from 06N to 19N. Latest satellite imagery
shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N
to 16N between 107W and 111W. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance
through 7 days as it moves westward near 15 kt. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas are possible with
this feature. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America. Its axis is
analyzed near 87W north of 06N to inland extreme northwestward
Nicaragua and the central portion of Honduras. It is moving
westward around 10 kt. The majority of convection is inland as
well as in the NW Caribbean Sea. Any other nearby convection is
described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb
along the coast of Colombia near 11N75W, and continues westward
across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica, to 10N91W to 10N91W
to 11N102W to 14N120W to low pressure near 13N127W 1011 and to west
of area at 11N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 04N to 09N between 78W-83W, from 09N to 14N between 95W-102W,
and within 120 nm south of the trough between 85W-86W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 84W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm south of the trough between 100W-104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California with possible tropical development possible within
the next 48 hours.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is near
26N121W with a pressure of 1009 mb. No significant
convection is noted with the low pressure. Fresh to strong winds
are within 120 nm of the low in the NE semicircle along with
seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly gap
winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen in overnight
scatterometer data, generated by high pressure building into NE
Mexico. These winds are resulting in rough seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are weakening near the southern tip
of Baja California. For the remainder of offshore waters, winds
are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in southerly swell,
with slight seas in the Gulf of California away from the entrance
and any deep convection.

For the forecast, thee remnant low of post-Tropical Cyclone
Juliette is near 26N121W 1009 mb. The low will slowly move
northward through Sat while continuing to weaken and eventually
dissipate. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and rough seas in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish early Fri. Winds will pulse
to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh winds may
impact the northern Gulf of California this afternoon and evening
due a trough rotating by to the north of Juliette. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast across the remainder
of the waters through the weekend and into early next week.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend while the system moves west-
northwestward across the central to western part of the eastern
Pacific basin. This system has a medium chance for tropical
development through the next 48 hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Papagayo with moderate seas. These winds are funneling through
passes in Central America in response to a high pressure gradient
from between high pressure N of the Caribbean and lower pressure
with the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
across the Central American offshore waters while between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, moderate to locally fresh SE to S
winds are observed. Seas are moderate in S to SE swell. Another
area of deep convection is noted within 120 nm offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to N gap winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through this weekend, possibly
increasing to fresh to strong early next week. Otherwise, mainly
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. Seas will be locally rough between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands late in the week and into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to now Post-Tropical Cyclone. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for an area of disturbed weather just beyond the
SW Mexico offshore waters.

Aside from Juliette, high pressure dominates the waters N of the
monsoon trough. Winds are moderate to locally fresh from 11N to
20N between 129W and 140W, and moderate or weaker elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough W of 110W. Winds are mainly gentle to
moderate S of the monsoon trough, except fresh E of 110W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in mixed northerly and southerly swell N of the
monsoon trough, and 7 to 9 ft in southerly swells S of the
monsoon trough, highest near and S of the Equator.

For the forecast, see Special Features section above. Elsewhere,
little change in winds is forecast through the period.

$$
Aguirre