691
AXPZ20 KNHC 041513
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation
developing across Central America starting today and lasting
through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation
occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to
your local weather agency and the International Desk at the
Weather Prediction Center for more details.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Invest EP95): An 1008 mb
area of low pressure located over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin near 08.5N138W continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity as described with
the monsoon trough below. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25
kt with seas of 3.0 to 4.0 m enhanced with background NW swell.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system
has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours and high chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 low pressure in the SW
Caribbean Sea near 11N75W to 11N87W to 05N99W to 08N108W to
05N131W to 1008 mb low pressure near 08N138W to 07N140W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01S
to 12N between 77W and 97W, from 03S to 14N between 102W and
126W, and from 05N to 18N between 128W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are pressure in the offshore waters of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure
building SE toward the region. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8
ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds
prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW
swell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of California, where
slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will
maintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight, locally
strong near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay in the evening. Large NW
swell will impact the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of
large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of
California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri afternoon.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, possibly increasing to gale
force Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of
America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of
Central America near 08N92.5W. A broad zone of moderate to
locally fresh S winds is noted ESE of this low, along with
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection as described with
the monsoon trough above. Locally rough seas are possible there
as well. The winds and convection extends southward to near the
Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds are light to gentle, with
moderate seas.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure is forecast to drift
northward and has some potential for gradual development. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend. There
is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours and
a medium chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of development,
this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
Central America through this weekend. See the Special Features
section above for details on this heavy rainfall potential.
Mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features Section above for information on low
pressure in the far western basin that has a potential for
tropical development.

A frontal trough is analyzed over the northern waters from
roughly 28N122W to 25N140W. Little sensible weather remains
associated with this boundary, which should fully dissolve later
today. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in
from the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is
leading to widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across
waters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong
near the area of low pressure. Long period NW swell and wind-
waves are combining to create rough seas over the same area.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
west-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.
Meanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region
through tonight, while reinforcing new NW swell will start to
arrive by early Thu, keeping rough seas. Additional reinforcing
NW swell will keep moving in through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat merging NW
and SE swell may produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator,
lingering for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky