195
AXPZ20 KNHC 180847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this
wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W, from 03N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N135W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
09N to 11N, between 83W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection to
isolated strong convection is evident north of 09N between 85W
and 88W, north of 12N between 88W and 94W, and north of 15N
between 97W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 09N to 12N between 100W and 110W, and from 17N to 20N
between 111W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered over the north-
central Pacific to near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California.
This pattern is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW breezes
and moderate seas off Baja California. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N gap winds pulsing
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and
slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. Gentle winds
and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of the
Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with
moderate seas west of the Baja peninsula through the end of the
week. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish this morning, but expect fresh gap
winds to pulse again tonight. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas in SW swell will persist across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the week while gentle to moderate
winds are expected south of 05N. Cross- equatorial southerly
swell will propagate across the regional waters, keeping seas in
the moderate range, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands
where slight seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure along with lower pressure in the vicinity
of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds
north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 135W. Seas over these
waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets south of
10N and west of 130W before subsiding Mon. Another surge of
southerly swell south of the monsoon trough is expected between
115W and 135W by midweek. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen