651
AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 123.2W at 30/2100 UTC,
moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Karina
is moving toward the west. A slower westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next few days. Steady to rapid
strengthening seems likely, and Karina is forecast to become a
major hurricane in a day or so. Swells generated by Karina will
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is
located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is
expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. This
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours, and also through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89W north of 05N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the southern end of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 05N to 17N with a
1010 mb low pressure (EP95) located near 12N106W. This system is
moving NNW at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 110W. Similar
convective activity can be found from 05N to 10N between 98W and
104W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are seen on the
either side of the wave axis, particularly from 12N to 15.5N
between 102W and 108W. Please, see the Special Features section
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to
11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina,
and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia.
Part of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and
Costa Rica.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the
potential of tropical cyclone formation (EP95).

Fresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of
Hurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands.
Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone`s circulation are
also moving across the islands. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are
now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N.
Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas
dominate the Gulf of California, except the northern part of the
Gulf where fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are noted.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon
morning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning,
18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N
132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. The fresh SE winds
and rough seas impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly
Clarion Island, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane
Karina, will diminish tonight into Mon as the storm moves farther
west. In addition, the fresh to strong southerly winds in the
northern Gulf of California will also diminish tonight. Then,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected.
However, seas are forecast to build near the entrance to the
Gulf by midweek as the next tropical cyclone approaches the
Revillagigedo Islands. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is located well to the
south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue
to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then
weakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south
of the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active
near the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather located
well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential of
tropical cyclone formation (EP95).

A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone
Iselle, remains over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends
from 26N135W to 21N142W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7
to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis
and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or
weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north
and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the
aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the
waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly
moderate across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon
morning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning,
18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N
132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. Tropical Storm
Lowell is now west of the forecast area. The associated winds
and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated by
Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the
forecast region early this week.

$$
GR