160
ABPZ20 KNHC 171154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the East
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat with an area of
low pressure related to the remnants of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some development of this system as it moves gradually westward,
remaining east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves gradually
northwestward turning northward off the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin