842
WTPZ22 KNHC 250837
TCMEP2

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE  70SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 103.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 104.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 106.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY