Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
444 WTPZ32 KNHC 031155 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 111.1W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe. * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and Thursday and then approach the coast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through tonight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could weaken back to a tropical storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and far southeast Baja California through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, is expected from the northwest Mexico states of Sinaloa and Sonora northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe today through Thursday, and in the watch area north of Cabo San Lazaro Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning this morning and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown