425
WTPZ43 KNHC 052040
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Marie continues to exhibit a large ragged eye, around 60 n mi in
diameter. Satellite estimates of the hurricane`s intensity are very
similar to what they were 6 hours ago, and therefore the initial
intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. The heading of
the hurricane has been similarly steady, albeit at a slightly
slower forward speed, with a motion estimate of 305/6 kt.

Marie is moving along the western periphery of a ridge centered over
the southern United States and will likely continue on a generally
northwestward heading for most of the weekend. A short-term bend
toward the west-northwest is still expected early next week as the
cyclone weakens but it will ultimately accelerate northwestward as a
mid- to upper-level trough digs quickly southward to the west of
Marie by late Tuesday.

A drier environment and cooler SSTs are still expected to cause
Marie to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. The rate of
weakening could increase after that as the environment gets more
hostile and the aforementioned trough causes an increase in
southerly wind shear across the cyclone. Marie is still expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low near the 96 h mark, and could
dissipate in about 5 days, though the forecast conservatively shows
a point at that time for now. The NHC track and intensity forecasts
are very close to the HCCA and GDM consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 22.1N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.7N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 23.6N 122.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 24.3N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 24.9N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 25.5N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 30.3N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 34.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky