Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
144 WTPZ45 KNHC 070848 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Octave continues to produce bursts of deep convection, with a new area of cold cloud tops redeveloping and expanding over and north of the low-level circulation center during the past several hours. A 0541 UTC METOP-C ASCAT pass showed that the storm`s compact structure remains intact, with peak surface winds around 40 kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain 3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates range from 26 to 41 kt. Based on these data and consistent satellite trends, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue today as the storm moves along the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the U.S. West Coast, and south of a much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the east-northeast. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast tonight into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward acceleration by Thursday as Octave begins to interact with, and possibly become, absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. Given Octaves compact structure, the system may be able to maintain its intensity for another day or so before succumbing to an increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscillas larger circulation. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.8N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.4N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.9N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)