981
FXUS02 KWBC 141959
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2026


...Widespread Rain/Snow Pattern for the West and Heavy
Snow/Icy Threat from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast...


...General Overview...

An expansive upper level ridge builds in from the southern Plains
to the Midwest going into Tuesday, with widespread above normal
temperatures and breezy conditions accompanying it, and this ridge
then reaches the East Coast by Wednesday with a return to warmer
temperatures after prolonged cold weather. Out West, a pattern
change will be taking place with a large upper trough with embedded
shortwave energy building into the region, bringing badly needed
moisture after the recent dry spell, with moderate to heavy
rainfall for the California coast, and heavy snow especially from
the Sierra Nevada to the central and northern Rockies. Organized
low pressure system is expected to develop across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley to close out the work week and spread an emerging
pattern of precipitation including a threat for heavy snow/ice on
the northern edge of the expanding precipitation shield.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Recent guidance solutions have become increasingly well clustered
and generally are in good overall agreement on the main synoptic
scale pattern through the mid-later part of next week, with the
normal level of mesoscale differences. A composite blend of best
clustered guidance of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models seems good for
Tuesday-Thursday before opting to switch to these still compatible
ensemble means into late next week amid growing forecast spread.

In terms of the NBM, the main manual adjustments were applied to
address winds that remain likely too weak and dew points too high
across much of the Rockies/Plains Tuesday/Wednesday. This offers an
increasing risk of fire weather threats, particularly for the
Southern High Plains Tuesday as per the Storm Prediction Center.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It generally remains the same as indicated previously that:

A potent shortwave trough focus moving inland across the Southwest
is expected to bring moderate to locally heavy rainfall for the
lower elevations from near San Francisco to the greater Los Angeles
and San Diego metro areas. A Marginal Risk will remain valid for
these areas on Tuesday south of Monterrey, and lighter showers on
Wednesday when no risk areas are currently warranted. Additional
rainfall is likely going into the end of the week for the Pacific
Northwest, but does not appear to be heavy at this time in the
forecast. Snow levels are expected to fall quite a bit with the
shortwave and cold front moving inland, with multiple feet of
snowfall expected for the Sierra Nevada through next week, and 1 to
2 feet of snowfall is probable for the higher ranges of the
Intermountain West and the central/northern Rockies. This snowfall
will greatly help with the deteriorating drought situation across
much of the Colorado River basin.

The strong upper shortwave trough ejecting out over the Plains will
spur surface cyclogenesis over the western High Plains by Tuesday
afternoon. This low should generally track across the Midwest and
then reach the Great Lakes and weaken going into Thursday. A strong
pressure gradient south of the low will generate enhanced winds
from western Texas to Wyoming, and combined with anomalous warmth
and low humidity will likely result in fire weather threats on
Tuesday and through midweek.

To the north of the surface low will be a corridor of
wrapping/enhanced precipitation from the Dakotas to Michigan as
moisture in southwesterly flow aloft overruns slow to erode
Canadian surface high pressure, eventually affecting downstream
into the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. This will include a
heavier band of snow on the northern edge and a transitional icy
zone. A second surface low is likely to develop across Kansas by
Thursday, but likely less impactful than the first storm system.

Temperatures will feel more like late March and April across a
large portion of the Plains and the Midwest with the amplified
upper ridge in place and downsloping winds from the Rockies. Highs
are expected to be up to 30 degrees above mid-February averages
across portions of Nebraska and Iowa, with the potential for a few
record highs to be set. Except for New England, the eastern U.S.
will also get a welcomed warm-up after an extended period of very
cold weather the past couple of weeks going into Wednesday and
Thursday, as the warmth from the Plains builds eastward with a warm
front lifting north. It should remain cold closer to the Canadian
border as a strong surface high builds in behind a cold front, but
no arctic air mass intrusions are expected. Colder than average
conditions will generally be the rule across much of the West given
the upper trough and more clouds and precipitation keeping daytime
highs in check on most days.

Hamrick/Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




































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