Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
604
FXUS64 KEPZ 141150
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
550 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year are on the way, with highs
104 to 108 Luna, Dona Ana, El Paso and Hudspeth Counties
through Wednesday.
- Mostly dry, but mountains, mainly the Sacs, will see a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the weekend.
- Possible smoke impacts in parts of Grant, Sierra, and Luna
Counties from the Trout and Buck Fire next few days.
- Breezy winds Monday/Tuesday will push fire conditions to near
critical.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
It is about to get real hot. The hottest temperatures of the
season are on the way starting on Saturday and lasting through
at least Tuesday. The culprit in all of this is a large upper
level ridge centered almost directly over southern New Mexico.
This upper level ridge will park itself over the region through
Monday. High temperatures on Saturday, Sunday and Monday will run
7 to 10 degrees above average. This will have most lowland
locations easily reaching heat advisory criteria (high temps of
105) and for El Paso into the Rio Grande Valley below El Paso, we
will be close excessive heat warning criteria (high temps of 110).
Right now I`m keeping metro El Paso, just below heat warning
criteria, but probabilistic guidance has at least 25% chance that
El Paso could see a high of 110 Sunday through Tuesday. There
continues to be just enough moisture in trapped under the ridge to
give a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sacramento
Mountains mainly on Saturday and Sunday.
On Monday the upper level ridge will begin to feel the impact of
an approaching upper level trough. The upper level ridge center
will push a little to the south and west as the upper level trough
moves into California. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge center
will be to our south and the upper level trough will be moving
across northern New Mexico. The upper level trough will usher in
some breezy west winds. The zonal flow (west to east) will
continue our very warm temperatures on Tuesday. The breezy winds
on Tuesday (maybe also Monday) will raise fire weather concerns,
especially with several on going fires.
For Wednesday and Thursday the upper level trough will be well to
our east and the upper level ridge will rebound and recenter back
over New Mexico. The current models are likely under doing
Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures, so we may need to
adjust those high temperatures up a few degrees as we get closer.
Down at the surface on Thursday, we will see our surface winds
come around to the southeast and that may be the beginning of some
moisture moving into the region. For now it is too early to tell
how much, if any moisture will move in, so our forecast is dry
through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR conditions for the next 24 hours as upper level high pressure
builds over the region. We will have unlimited ceilings. Winds
will start out light this morning, but will become more westerly
and gusty in the afternoon and early evening. Heat will be a
concern. Anyone working the ramps or on the tarmacs should
prepare for excessive heat by taking plenty of breaks and staying
hydrated. Density altitude could become an issue especially at
KELP where we could see DA`s approaching 7,700 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Well above normal temperatures will continue this weekend through
the week ahead with very low humidity and low fuel moisture.
Fire conditions will remain at least elevated into much of next
week. A few daytime mostly dry thunderstorms still possible over
the mountain zones through the weekend with erratic strong wind
gusts as the main impact. Winds will be relatively light this
weekend, but they will become breezy Monday and Tuesday, possibly
creating critical fire conditions (near Red Flag).
Min RH: Lowlands 6-11% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through
Wednesday. Vent rates good Saturday, then very good-excellent
Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 107 77 108 78 / 0 0 0 10
Sierra Blanca 100 68 101 67 / 10 10 10 20
Las Cruces 103 69 104 70 / 0 0 0 10
Alamogordo 102 70 103 70 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 81 56 81 55 / 10 0 20 0
Truth or Consequences 103 72 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 96 67 98 66 / 0 0 10 0
Deming 105 68 107 69 / 0 0 0 10
Lordsburg 101 66 104 68 / 0 0 10 0
West El Paso Metro 103 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 10
Dell City 104 69 104 68 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 107 73 108 71 / 0 10 10 10
Loma Linda 97 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 10
Fabens 106 73 107 72 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Teresa 102 73 103 73 / 0 0 0 10
White Sands HQ 103 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada Range 102 66 104 68 / 0 0 0 10
Hatch 104 66 106 68 / 0 0 0 10
Columbus 104 72 106 74 / 0 0 0 10
Orogrande 101 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 92 59 93 61 / 10 0 20 0
Mescalero 91 60 91 60 / 10 0 10 0
Timberon 88 56 89 57 / 10 0 10 10
Winston 95 58 95 58 / 0 0 10 0
Hillsboro 102 68 103 67 / 0 0 10 0
Spaceport 102 65 103 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 97 60 99 61 / 0 0 10 0
Hurley 99 66 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 102 64 104 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 96 63 99 64 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 99 69 100 68 / 0 0 10 0
Animas 100 68 103 69 / 0 0 10 0
Hachita 101 66 104 70 / 0 0 10 10
Antelope Wells 101 69 104 69 / 0 10 10 10
Cloverdale 96 70 99 68 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Monday night for
Western El Paso County.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Monday night for
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen