706
FXUS64 KEPZ 151222
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
622 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances
   will bring several days with improved thunderstorm chances.
   Storms may get off to a slow start this afternoon, but chances
   look to increase this evening and late tonight, especially near
   and west of the Rio Grande.

 - The threat of localized flash flooding will spread across the
   area tonight into Friday, and may linger in Hudspeth County on
   Saturday.

 - High temperatures will drop into the 80s across the lowlands by
   Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper high now over the southeast Gulf states. Ridging still nosing
back toward southern New Mexico. Though moisture component is good
over all the CWA, the best moisture still concentrates west of the
RG Valley. Thus our early convection for this evening has been in
that area. Hi res models show that changing though late tonight as
isolated storms move into the eastern half of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday...the upper high moves back westward, to
TexArk region by Thursday. Initially this rids the high center of
the western ridge, so that deep moisture is better distributed
across all of the CWA. PWs will be in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the best days for area wide storms
and the risk of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
the Gila/Black Range for Tuesday, and other areas will have to be
looked at for a potential watch (perhaps more so on Wednesday).
Models have sped the high`s westward movement up some, so by
Thursday the high is close enough (TexArk area) that moisture may
be nudged more out to the western CWA again.

Friday through the weekend...the upper high migrates down to
southern Texas into Mexico. Meanwhile over our area the
moisture/short waves gradually get entrained into a mid-latitude low
and trough over the Great Basin. This will slowly shunt the moisture
back east over the forecast area Friday for a brief uptick in storm
activity. This trough will move across New Mexico Saturday. Drying
will begin Saturday, though still enough moisture for
isolate/scattered thunderstorms. Pattern recognition would suggest
possible severe storms, but parameters don`t look to much out of the
ordinary. By Sunday, another Pacific low entering California will
provide a dry punch into our area with very little chance of storms.

By Monday and Tuesday, both GFS/ECMWF show the California low moving
over Nevada/Arizona, drawing up sub-tropical moisture and increasing
the chance of rain again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Plenty of convective debris and a few leftover showers around this
morning. This will limit instability and likely result in a slow
start to thunderstorm development today. However, upper level
dusturbances rolling up from the south will likely bring a few
rounds of evening and late night thunderstorms. There`s a chance
these storms will be preceded by blowing dust near the
international border, including ELP, as outflow pushes south to
north after 00Z. For ELP, thunderstorm chances increase after 01Z,
with several high res models suggesting a second round coming in
after 06-07Z. These same rounds will likely impact DMN and LRU an
hour or two later. TCS will see an earlier risk of -TSRA rolling
off the Black Range after 21Z, with a second round possible after
05-06Z. Confidence is highest down south, where the first round is
handled with TEMPOs, followed by PROB30 for round 2. Crafting the
TAF to account for preceding outflow and BLDU followed by TSRA was
nearly impossible given the timing uncertainties and overlapping
periods. Had it been a risk of BLDU alone, I`d have gone with a
PROB30, as the risk is more conditional, but intead it was all
grouped together in a TEMPO. If BLDU does push up from the south,
visibility may briefly drop to IFR, lower than what is currently
in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 606 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A steady cooling and moistening trend is expected this week as
troughing over the west coast slowly edges out persistent upper
level ridging. Wetting rain chances will increase through the
week, with excellent overnight RH recovery becoming the norm.
Below normal maximum temperatures will spread from west to east,
and most areas will see highs running 3 to 5 degrees below normal
by mid-week. Lowland highs in the 80s will be common. The main
fire weather concern will be lighter low level winds beginning to
have a negative impact on vent rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  92  68  90 /  60  30  70  30
Sierra Blanca            64  91  63  89 /  50  30  30  20
Las Cruces               65  90  63  87 /  60  40  80  20
Alamogordo               66  92  63  88 /  50  70  70  40
Cloudcroft               49  68  48  66 /  40  80  70  60
Truth or Consequences    66  86  64  84 /  60  60  90  50
Silver City              60  80  58  79 /  70  70  90  50
Deming                   64  90  61  87 /  60  40  90  30
Lordsburg                65  85  62  84 /  60  60  80  20
West El Paso Metro       70  92  68  89 /  60  30  70  20
Dell City                67  94  65  91 /  50  50  40  20
Fort Hancock             71  98  70  96 /  50  30  40  30
Loma Linda               65  87  64  84 /  60  40  60  40
Fabens                   69  95  68  92 /  50  40  70  30
Santa Teresa             67  91  65  88 /  70  30  70  20
White Sands HQ           70  92  68  89 /  70  40  70  40
Jornada Range            66  90  63  87 /  60  40  80  40
Hatch                    66  91  63  88 /  60  50  80  30
Columbus                 68  90  66  88 /  70  30  80  10
Orogrande                65  90  63  87 /  60  50  70  40
Mayhill                  55  81  54  78 /  50  80  60  60
Mescalero                53  79  52  77 /  40  80  70  60
Timberon                 53  78  51  75 /  50  80  70  50
Winston                  56  77  56  75 /  60  80  90  70
Hillsboro                64  85  62  83 /  70  60  90  50
Spaceport                64  88  61  85 /  60  50  80  40
Lake Roberts             56  79  58  79 /  70  80  90  60
Hurley                   61  82  59  81 /  70  60  90  40
Cliff                    63  86  63  86 /  70  80  90  50
Mule Creek               59  81  60  81 /  60  80  90  60
Faywood                  63  83  61  81 /  80  60  90  50
Animas                   65  85  64  86 /  60  60  80  20
Hachita                  64  86  62  85 /  70  50  80  20
Antelope Wells           64  86  63  86 /  70  50  70  30
Cloverdale               62  81  61  82 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through late tonight for
     Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman