Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
002
FXUS64 KEPZ 010422
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1022 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1020 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026
- Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures
Monday and Tuesday.
- Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across
Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A
Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo
Counties.
- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026
A slug of moisture will meet up with an upper trough and will
bring breezy to very breezy conditions and precipitation chances
Sunday. Anomalous moisture will still be present across the area
with PWs of around 0.9"-1.1". Plenty of shear will be at play as
well (0-6km shear of 50-70kt). Storm chances begin in the Gila
region and western areas bordering AZ in the late afternoon
(~3/4PM) and will push eastward through the evening hours Sunday.
Most recent CAMs show a line of storms initially as it gets into
the CWA but then struggles as it nears the Rio Grande Valley. This
would make sense as this trough and it`s associated pacific front
pushes towards El Paso, the sun sets and capping will start to
build up and may just transition to more showery activity after
dark. CAPE is the most uncertain in this forecast. Models continue
to suggest afternoon CAPEs will be best in far west TX and S.
Otero Co. with lower CAPEs out west where the front will reach
first.
The SPC has placed portions of our area in a Marginal risk for
severe storms Sunday with a focus for damaging wind gusts from
storms. In addition, the Gila region and portions of northern
Hidalgo Co. are in a Slight risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall
with storms. A Marginal risk (Level 1/4) covers the Sacramento Mtns,
NM Bootheel, Sierra Co. and portions of Luna Co. The Gila region,
Black Range, and northern Hidalgo are in a Flood Watch currently.
Storms will be moving fast but there will be concern for training
storms causing flash flooding.
Storms exit Monday morning in the earlier morning hours, around
sunrise. Lingering showers possible in the remaining morning hours
but much drier air will push in right behind the front leaving a
nice and dry day across the area on Monday but will be a bit breezy
like Sunday will be. This nice, quiet, and dry weather will persist
through the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Quiet conditions overnight with light winds AOB 10KT and increasing
clouds. Winds will be on the increase late morning and into the
afternoon hours with winds 15-20G25-30KT by noon. Winds will be
slightly stronger and should max out around 3/4PM. A line of storms
and showers expected to push into western NM Sunday afternoon.
Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Light and variable winds overnight with continued cloud cover for
your Halloween. Overnight temperatures will stay warm due to cloud
coverage.
Pacific storm system will approach the area on Sunday, with
breezy southwest winds winds ahead of it. Sustained speeds 20 to
30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon will lead to Good
vent rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday
morning across Gila NF will spread eastward across Southern New
Mexico and Lincoln NF Sunday night into Monday morning. Localized
heavy rain will lead to a flood risk for Gila NF Sunday
afternoon.
Conditions becoming dry again on Monday, with a week of dry
weather and light winds ahead. Vent rates generally look Poor to
Fair each afternoon going forward. Few day-to-day changes in
temperature next week, typical for early November. Fire danger
will remain low due to seasonally high ERCs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 60 81 60 71 / 0 10 30 0
Sierra Blanca 54 78 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 55 77 53 67 / 0 40 60 0
Alamogordo 55 78 52 68 / 10 40 60 30
Cloudcroft 42 57 39 45 / 10 30 70 30
Truth or Consequences 56 75 53 70 / 30 60 80 0
Silver City 51 66 46 59 / 50 80 90 20
Deming 54 77 51 66 / 10 60 80 0
Lordsburg 55 72 47 63 / 40 70 80 20
West El Paso Metro 61 80 61 70 / 0 10 40 0
Dell City 56 80 58 72 / 0 0 20 0
Fort Hancock 61 87 61 79 / 10 0 10 0
Loma Linda 55 74 54 64 / 0 10 30 0
Fabens 60 85 60 75 / 0 0 10 10
Santa Teresa 58 79 57 69 / 0 20 50 0
White Sands HQ 59 79 57 69 / 0 40 50 10
Jornada Range 56 77 52 69 / 10 50 80 0
Hatch 57 79 53 72 / 10 60 90 0
Columbus 57 79 56 70 / 10 30 40 0
Orogrande 55 77 54 69 / 0 30 60 10
Mayhill 48 69 46 58 / 10 20 70 10
Mescalero 47 68 43 56 / 20 30 70 50
Timberon 45 65 42 55 / 20 20 80 20
Winston 48 68 45 62 / 50 70 90 10
Hillsboro 55 73 51 69 / 30 70 90 0
Spaceport 55 75 51 70 / 20 60 90 0
Lake Roberts 48 64 43 60 / 50 90 100 30
Hurley 51 69 45 62 / 40 80 90 10
Cliff 57 70 50 67 / 70 90 90 30
Mule Creek 52 64 45 62 / 90 90 80 40
Faywood 54 69 48 61 / 30 70 90 0
Animas 56 73 49 67 / 20 60 70 10
Hachita 54 75 49 66 / 10 50 70 0
Antelope Wells 55 76 52 70 / 10 60 80 0
Cloverdale 54 67 49 63 / 20 70 90 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher