Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
454 FXUS64 KEPZ 200247 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 847 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 - Drier weather this weekend and into Monday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the forecast area. - A rapid return of moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the rest of next week. Heavy rain will pose a risk of flash flooding area wide. - Typical mid-September temperatures over the weekend, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Cooler temperatures expected next week with forecasted rain and lingering cloud coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 WV imagery showing short-wave now extending north-south through central New Mexico with layered moisture to the east over the eastern half of the CWA. PWs are as high as 1.2 inches in this layered moisture. Further west, the main upper trough extends from the Great Basin low down across central Arizona. So the far east still has a risk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Sacramento Mtns could see a stray storm this afternoon, with Hudspeth seeing some isolated this evening. HRRR showing good outflow hitting west Texas early this evening to aid in that development. Sunday and Monday...look to remain dry as that main upper trough and moisture plume move well east of our area. Highest PWs remain in the east, but only around .70 inches. Probably non-zero chances for a storm over Otero/Hudspeth Counties but will not mention this in the grids. Tuesday through Friday...abundant sub-tropical moisture rapidly streams up from the south with the help of a sub-tropical jet (80+ kts by Thursday). PWs approaching 1.50 inches Tuesday night (record levels) and only back off slightly Wednesday through Friday. Thus expect widespread showers/thunderstorms all these days. Small scale features will determine exactly when the heaviest rain and flood potential occur. GFS shows tropical wave/vort center moving out of Mexico to our area Tuesday night, though the ECMWF not as visible with this. ECMWF has been consistent in showing TS remnants (Odalys?) moving up Thursday night. Both these features could really enhance an already primed situation. Flood Watches will likely be issued eventually for this period. Saturday and Sunday...GFS/ECMWF patterns diverge noticeably, but their bottom lines are about the same; less moisture but still expect isolated/scattered thunderstorms each day, though Sunday transitioning downward with activity. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 839 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 VFR conditions expected overnight for DMN and TCS. Near term CAMS had been persistently showing convection developing near LRU and ELP around 04-05Z, but appeared to be dependent on outflow from thunderstorms developing in the area of Sabinal, Chihuahua. That did not happen, and much of northern Chihuahua is presently devoid of convection or outflow boundaries. Despite that, the 00Z HRRR continues to try to develop convection right over the Franklin Mountains between 02-04Z. TAFs were initially sent with PROB30s for -TSRA at ELP and LRU, but may need to rolled back soon as the model solutions are looking increasingly far-fetched as the requisite forcing mechanisms have failed to materialize. Otherwise, tomorrow (Sunday) looks to deliver a considerable downtick in thunderstorm chances, with high confidence in VFR/ fair weather. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Very little fire concerns over the next week. Brief drying period Sunday and Monday with lower humidities, but rapid moisture increase Tuesday into next weekend will raise humidities sharply, bring periods of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding to much of the forecast area. Min RH: Lowlands 18-23% Sunday/Monday increasing to 35-50% Tuesday through Friday. Mountains20-30% Sunday/Monday increasing to 60-80% Tuesday through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Tuesday, becoming poor-fair Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 93 67 93 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 10 Las Cruces 61 90 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 70 48 70 / 10 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 60 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 61 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 67 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 64 94 63 93 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 69 97 69 97 / 30 0 0 0 Loma Linda 63 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 66 94 66 95 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 91 62 91 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 91 68 91 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 62 90 62 90 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 62 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 93 64 93 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 89 61 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 83 54 81 / 10 10 0 10 Mescalero 54 79 52 80 / 10 0 0 10 Timberon 53 79 53 79 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 52 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 58 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 56 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 63 91 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman