Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
115
FXUS64 KEPZ 151134
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
534 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The hottest temperatures of the year will continue. Highs will
range from 104 to 108 across the lowlands through Tuesday.
- Most of the area will remain dry on Sunday, but widely
scattered thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
Mountains in the afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms
drifting into Hudspeth County in the evening. There`s an
outside chance of a stray thunderstorm in the Gila Region or
Black Range as well.
- Dry conditions will prevail in all areas Monday through at
least Friday.
- Smoke will affect parts of Grant and Sierra counties from the
Trout and Buck Fires next few days. Smoke will be particularly
thick in the Mimbres and Sapillo Valleys.
- Critical fire weather conditions are possible as breezy west
winds develop Monday and especially Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025
The Trout Fire was particularly active today with tall smoke
columns and pyrocumulus clouds noted during the afternoon.
Satellite imagery showed low level smoke spreading south towards
Silver City towards evening. Expect smoke will be particularly
thick tonight along Sapillo Creek, through Lake Roberts, and down
through the Mimbres Valley. Trapped smoke will also be noticeable
around Pinos Altos and Silver City, largely depending on
elevation.
Expect one more day with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in
Sacramento Mountains in the afternoon. Storms will attempt to
spread south along the Otero Mesa into Hudspeth County in the
evening. The NBM has shown a distinct low-PoP bias the past few
days, so PoP grids were adjusted up, leaning on good old
persistence and the HREF which has been better on its own. We have
had some impressive "virga bomb" downbursts at a few places the
past few days, and this will likely continue. Today`s event was at
Spaceport America, where a 58 mph gust was preceded by a 76
degree dewpoint depression (97 over 21). The dewpoint "spiked" to
37 after the microburst.
Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm
developing over the Black Range Sunday afternoon/evening again,
and maybe closer to the Pinos Altos Range and the Trout Fire. Not
enough moisture for any rain though...just wind.
The subtropical ridge will be centered right over us tomorrow, as
it was today, and will stay over southern NM through Monday. Highs
will likely be within a degree or two of yesterday`s highs just
about everywhere. ELP hit 107 today. It could tick to 108 or
maybe 109 Sunday or Monday. The ridge starts to retreat south on
Monday, but westerly flow could bring downsloping, balancing out
any benefit of the ridge`s retreat.
Saggy troughing over Arizona will help boost westerly flow
slightly over western NM on Monday. The ridge completely breaks
down on Tuesday, with a shortwave trough rolling across the
Central Rockies in the afternoon. Weak lee troughing will enhance
the pressure gradient, and deep mixing could tap into 30-35 knots
at and above 700 mb. BUFKIT soundings for DMN Tuesday afternoon
suggest momentum transfer gust potential around 25 knots (30 mph).
Up in northern Grant County, in the higher terrain, gusts could be
a little higher, and winds may stay up longer into the night than
usual. Not great news given the fires.
If you look at a graph of NBM forecast Max Temperature ranges for
ELP the next 10 days, and ignore the labels, you`d be relived to
see a downward trend in temperatures through the period. But read
the labels, and you`ll see we`re unlikely to drop below 105 for a
high until Wednesday (and even then it`s close), and we`ll likely
stay around 100-102 into next weekend.
The good news? Unhindered by the departing stronger westerly flow
on Wednesday, low level moisture will start its usual diurnal
lapping into our area Wednesday night, with a stronger easterly
push possible Thursday. The subtropical ridge will reorganize
itself just south of the Four Corners. The GFS also hints at the
first inverted trough of the season rolling into northeastern
Mexico late in the week. This should start getting deeper
convection going over the central Sierra Madre Occidental, a
necessary step towards bringing the monsoon moisture northward in
time. Isolated high terrain convection may make a return Friday
over the Sacramento Mountains. Beyond that, it looks like a
battle between a digging trough over the Pacific Northwest and
the subtropical ridge takes shape by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Morning light
winds will become more south to southwest at 7 to 10 kts in the
afternoon. Outflow winds from thunderstorms east of the region
will shift winds to the east southeast at 10-12 kts in the early
evening with winds become lighter and shifting to a drainage
pattern late in the evening.
Smoke from the Trout Fire was too high to cause ceilings or visby
restrictions at TCS this afternoon. Expect any visibility
reductions through the night will be located closer to the fire,
especially the Mimbres and Sapillo Valleys, possibly down towards
SVC.
Isolated convection today over the higher terrain will not affect
any TAF sites, but we`ll need to watch for any stronger outflows
that could try to come into ELP in the evening, as convection may
be more active over Hudspeth County.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Hot and dry conditions will maintain elevated fire conditions
today with very low humidity and fuel moisture across the region.
Winds through the day will be light, under 12 mph, but there is a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms over the mountains that
could generate much stronger erratic winds, and dry lightning in
the vicinity of the storms this afternoon.
Temperatures remain well above normal into next week. For Monday
and Tuesday, dryness continues but afternoon breezes will pick up
both days to west/northwest 12-17 mph, allowing fire conditions to
approach critical.
By Friday/Saturday expect wind shift to the east/southeast with
humidity slowly rising. Slight chance of thunderstorms returns to
the zones by next Saturday.
Min RH: Lowlands 5-12% through Thursday. Mountains 7-14% through
Thursday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 107 77 108 78 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 101 67 101 71 / 30 40 0 0
Las Cruces 102 70 104 70 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 102 70 104 71 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 82 56 81 57 / 10 0 10 0
Truth or Consequences 102 72 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 96 66 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 106 69 105 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 102 68 104 67 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 104 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 104 68 106 71 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 107 73 108 76 / 10 20 0 0
Loma Linda 99 70 99 72 / 10 10 0 0
Fabens 105 72 107 74 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 103 72 104 73 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 104 75 105 78 / 0 10 0 0
Jornada Range 102 66 104 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 105 67 106 68 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 106 73 106 75 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 102 70 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 91 60 92 62 / 30 10 10 0
Mescalero 92 60 92 61 / 10 0 10 0
Timberon 89 57 89 59 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 94 58 95 58 / 10 10 0 0
Hillsboro 102 64 102 63 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 102 65 103 67 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 97 49 98 50 / 10 20 0 0
Hurley 99 65 100 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 100 56 101 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 97 55 99 51 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 100 67 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 101 69 104 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 102 69 104 69 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 102 69 103 68 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 98 67 99 67 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Southern Dona
Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen