532
FXUS64 KEPZ 300417
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1017 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 956 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow,
  likely continuing overnight and through Sunday. Temperatures
  will be falling into the 80s by Sunday for the lowlands.

- Thunderstorms through the weekend will have the potential to
  produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
  in the high terrain.

- Precip chances will diminish Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A messy synoptic pattern, coupled with plenty of atmospheric
moisture across the region, will lead to an active weather pattern,
with potential for a lot of areawide rainfall through the holiday
weekend. High pressure remains over the region, but it has weakened,
shifted to the SE, and getting is getting cut by an upper trough
pushing across the Rockies. Already, we have introduced increased
moisture, which has resulting in a much more active afternoon and
evening Friday. PWATs and dewpoints are forecast to continue to
increase, peaking Sunday. In addition, the loss of the high will
remove a good bit of the stability aloft, with deep moisture, and
cooler temperatures aloft.

Tonight we are anticipating a flow reversal away from our early
evening southerly flow, shifting more northerly due to a passing
shortwave disturbance overnight, and what appears to be a lot of
outflow winds from showers and storms over Central NM. Models do
suggest some additional overnight convective development, and
these showers and storms would track south across the Borderland.

Tomorrow, Saturday, we reset the atmosphere through the morning
hours, adding heat to an already marginally unstable, and quite
moist environment. There does appear to be a possible mid-level
disturbance to our south that could work its way NW toward our area
in the aftn/eve to enhance the orographic and heat instability
inducers for what we think will be scattered to numerous showers and
storms. Rainfall rates will likely be high, and storm motion looks
to be slow. The result should be some areas of localized flash
flooding. There is a Flood Watch out for the SACs for Saturday.

Sunday looks similar, but with a twist.  A frontal boundary will
push in from the NE Saturday night into Sunday morning, tracking SW
across the region. The models suggest this will be an enhancer and a
focuser of rain showers and storms in the overnight, well into
Sunday.

Honestly, Models have not be very consistent of late, so confidence
beyond Sunday is not real high. However, a couple of concurrent GFS
and ECMWF runs are rebuilding the upper high to our NW. This would
put a N and NE flow aloft over our region, and begin to scour out
moisture, pushing it to our S and W, with drier continental air
moving in from the Plains. I don`t see a complete drying that would
remove all POPs, but rain/storm coverage does look to be greatly
reduced.

Tuesday onward, the synoptic pattern is an amplified west coast
ridge and mid west trough, with our area sitting largely under the
ridge, with some potential daily recycling of residual moisture, and
a minor threat of a shortwave disturbance tracking across NM, and
possibly giving our area a slight uptick in storm probability.
Otherwise, it looks like a more dry than wet week, with temperatures
running a bit below normal, due to north flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Increasing moisture and instability has lead to widespread rain
shower and thunderstorm activity across the region lasting into
the overnight period. Showers will linger several more hours into
the overnight, but are expected to dissipate and become weaker,
less impactful, and more isolated across the region. Expect winds
to be in SW to W in the 5-15 kt range generally. However, any
remaining overnight storms may produce outflows causing briefly
erratic, and gusty winds of 35-45 kts. Skies will vary from SCT130
well away from storms, to SCT- BKN080 BKN- OVC120 in VCTY of
storms. Generally VFR conditions, but tempo/iso MVFR/IFR with
passing storms due to lower CIGs BKN060/lower VSBY 3-5SM in +RA,
or 1/2-1SM in BLDU with outflow boundaries. We should see a break
in SHRA and TSRA through the morning hours with another round of
scattered to possibly numerous storms in the afternoon and
evening, will all terminals possible impacted with temo MVFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Moisture has increased across the area and widespread rain is
expected through the weekend. Locally heavy rain is possible,
especially on the eastern slopes of the Sacs Saturday. In general,
expect around a quarter of an inch of rain out west to a half to
three-quarters of an inch further east and higher amounts in the
mountains. Drier air moves in by late Monday and into midweek with
temperatures near to slightly above normal and RH`s dropping into
the 20s lowlands and 30s/40s in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  73  95  73 /  20  70  40  50
Sierra Blanca            93  65  90  65 /  40  50  60  60
Las Cruces               95  68  91  67 /  30  70  30  50
Alamogordo               96  67  92  66 /  40  60  60  50
Cloudcroft               72  50  69  48 /  60  70  70  50
Truth or Consequences    92  67  90  68 /  60  50  40  40
Silver City              89  61  86  62 /  50  40  50  40
Deming                   98  68  94  68 /  30  50  30  40
Lordsburg                94  69  92  69 /  30  30  30  40
West El Paso Metro       97  72  92  72 /  20  70  30  50
Dell City                97  68  93  67 /  30  60  50  50
Fort Hancock             99  71  95  71 /  40  60  50  60
Loma Linda               90  65  87  64 /  30  60  50  50
Fabens                   97  71  94  71 /  20  60  30  60
Santa Teresa             95  70  92  69 /  20  70  30  60
White Sands HQ           96  70  92  69 /  30  70  40  50
Jornada Range            95  68  90  67 /  40  70  40  50
Hatch                    97  68  93  68 /  40  60  30  40
Columbus                 97  70  93  69 /  30  60  30  50
Orogrande                94  67  90  66 /  40  70  40  50
Mayhill                  82  55  79  54 /  70  70  70  60
Mescalero                84  54  81  53 /  60  70  70  50
Timberon                 81  53  77  53 /  50  70  70  60
Winston                  85  55  82  55 /  80  50  60  30
Hillsboro                93  63  90  63 /  50  60  40  40
Spaceport                94  66  90  66 /  50  60  30  40
Lake Roberts             88  56  86  58 /  70  40  60  30
Hurley                   91  63  88  63 /  40  40  40  40
Cliff                    94  65  93  66 /  50  30  50  30
Mule Creek               90  61  88  61 /  40  20  40  20
Faywood                  91  64  87  64 /  40  50  60  40
Animas                   94  68  92  68 /  40  50  40  40
Hachita                  94  67  90  67 /  40  50  30  50
Antelope Wells           93  65  90  66 /  50  60  50  60
Cloverdale               87  63  85  64 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird