Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
833 FXUS64 KEPZ 281900 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 100 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms possible in Hudspeth county today, otherwise will be dry and quiet. - Showers with embedded thunderstorms expected areawide Thursday and into portions of Friday. Brief stretch of quiet weather for Halloween. - A potent upper level system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday and into Monday. Increased flooding risk from thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Mostly calm and quiet weather in store today. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening in Hudspeth and southern Otero counties. A slug of moisture will continue pushing north into our area on Thursday allowing PW values to reach a near record breaking value of around 1". A shortwave will act as the lifting mechanism for storms starting Thursday morning and persisting all day. Expecting showery activity with some embedded thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of producing flash flooding. Storm chances persists into Friday. A brief break on Saturday but a much deeper trough will be the lifting mechanism for storms Sunday and into portions of Monday. Expect areawide rain chances Sunday. PWs will be well above normal again for this time of year on Sunday nearing around 0.9" to 1.0". Better forcing will increase the flooding threat. Winds will be slightly breezy Sunday becoming even breezier Monday. Moisture looks to quickly get shoved out behind this large upper trough Monday. Temperatures also look to take a dip too on Tuesday behind the low with lowland highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Dry and quiet conditions today at terminals. Light winds generally AOB 10KT through the period and thickening high clouds. Rain showers will push in from the south Thursday morning. Expanding coverage of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Low fire weather concerns through at least Monday as min RHs stay above critical thresholds. Expect showers and thunderstorms starting tomorrow morning and persisting into Friday morning. A brief break in the rain Friday morning and portions of the afternoon but the next round of rain expected to begin out west Friday afternoon and through the evening. By Saturday morning, much of the weather will have cleared out bringing another short break in the weather. A more robust system will bring more rain and thunderstorm chances Sunday but will clear out on Monday. Flash flooding will be a concern with thunderstorms Sunday. There`ll be a lower risk for flooding Thursday (still could happen, but not as widespread), but definitely looks to be a bigger risk on Sunday. Min RHs in the lowlands will be anywhere from 30-60% tomorrow with mountain min RHs of 70-80% tomorrow. Min RHs will become 40-60% in the lowlands and 65-80% in the mountains Friday through Sunday. Min RHs dip to the 30% range in the lowlands and 50-60% in the mountains Monday through Wednesday. 20 foot winds will be 5-10 mph each afternoon starting Thursday through Saturday. Slightly breezier conditions Sunday with winds 10-15 mph, and even breezier Monday afternoon with speeds of 10-20 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 75 55 74 / 0 40 60 10 Sierra Blanca 54 70 50 71 / 20 70 80 10 Las Cruces 54 74 51 73 / 10 30 60 10 Alamogordo 55 74 49 72 / 0 60 60 20 Cloudcroft 40 54 37 53 / 0 60 60 40 Truth or Consequences 51 74 50 73 / 0 20 50 10 Silver City 49 71 47 68 / 0 20 40 40 Deming 53 77 51 74 / 0 20 40 10 Lordsburg 52 77 50 74 / 0 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 61 75 57 74 / 0 40 60 10 Dell City 55 74 53 74 / 20 30 60 30 Fort Hancock 60 78 56 78 / 20 60 60 10 Loma Linda 54 68 50 67 / 10 50 60 20 Fabens 59 77 55 76 / 10 40 50 10 Santa Teresa 57 74 53 73 / 0 40 50 10 White Sands HQ 59 75 54 74 / 10 40 60 10 Jornada Range 55 75 51 73 / 0 40 50 10 Hatch 55 78 52 77 / 0 30 40 10 Columbus 56 77 53 76 / 0 20 40 10 Orogrande 54 73 50 71 / 10 30 60 20 Mayhill 45 64 43 63 / 0 50 70 50 Mescalero 44 66 41 63 / 0 70 60 40 Timberon 44 62 39 61 / 10 50 70 30 Winston 42 68 42 67 / 0 20 50 40 Hillsboro 52 73 49 73 / 0 20 50 30 Spaceport 52 74 50 72 / 0 30 50 10 Lake Roberts 43 71 42 68 / 0 20 50 50 Hurley 48 73 46 71 / 0 20 40 30 Cliff 48 79 48 75 / 0 20 40 40 Mule Creek 46 74 46 70 / 0 20 40 50 Faywood 51 72 48 69 / 0 30 50 30 Animas 52 77 51 75 / 0 20 30 20 Hachita 51 76 50 74 / 0 20 30 10 Antelope Wells 53 77 50 75 / 0 30 40 20 Cloverdale 51 74 48 70 / 0 30 30 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher