Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
135 FXUS64 KEPZ 260926 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - Hot temperatures persisting through the rest of July and into early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses. - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico into next week. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Persistent upper high over the Southern Rockies will remain fixed over the region through at least the remainder of late July, driving the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North America Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperatures/terrain forcing producing meager instability. Precipitable water values are just over an inch through much of central New Mexico, with drier air across far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again across the southern NM high elevations and portions of the southwest New Mexico lowlands. El Paso/Las Cruces should remain dry. Main threat will be localized flash flooding, as storm motions remain very slow if not stationary and capable of 1-2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Hot temperatures will also continue into the week ahead due to this suffocating upper ridge. Highs will run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 100 to 105 degree range. Another Heat Advisory will need to be considered for El Paso and Rio Grande Valley this week. Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to- day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall weather pattern will continue to be warmer-than-normal temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly around the southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of August, which is still a poor weather pattern for rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. A widespread cu field is anticipated to develop during the morning, w/afternoon convection possible KDMN/KTCS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm outflows on localized scales for brief time frames. ERCs/Fire Danger remain low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 104 80 105 / 10 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 71 100 71 100 / 10 0 10 10 Las Cruces 73 102 73 103 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 76 102 77 102 / 10 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 57 78 58 79 / 10 20 0 20 Truth or Consequences 74 101 76 102 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 66 93 66 94 / 10 40 10 30 Deming 73 102 73 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 72 98 72 99 / 20 10 20 10 West El Paso Metro 80 104 80 104 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 74 103 74 105 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 105 78 106 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 97 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 78 104 78 105 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 102 76 103 / 10 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 80 103 81 104 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 76 102 77 103 / 10 0 0 10 Hatch 75 105 76 106 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 77 103 77 104 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 74 101 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 90 63 91 / 10 20 0 10 Mescalero 61 90 62 91 / 10 10 0 20 Timberon 59 88 60 89 / 10 10 0 10 Winston 63 92 65 93 / 10 30 10 10 Hillsboro 71 99 72 100 / 10 20 10 10 Spaceport 72 101 73 102 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 61 93 61 95 / 10 50 10 50 Hurley 68 97 68 98 / 10 40 10 20 Cliff 68 98 68 99 / 20 40 20 30 Mule Creek 66 95 66 95 / 10 30 20 20 Faywood 69 96 69 97 / 10 30 10 10 Animas 72 98 71 99 / 30 10 20 0 Hachita 71 98 70 99 / 30 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 70 97 69 98 / 30 30 30 0 Cloverdale 66 91 64 91 / 40 40 40 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99