773
FXUS64 KEPZ 161131
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
531 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Weak high pressure aloft, and a dry westerly flow pattern across
the Southwestern U.S., will keep the Borderland quite warm and
very dry through mid-week this week. This means plenty of sunshine
and continued triple-digit temperatures across the lowlands
through Wednesday. After midweek, a pattern change will allow
moisture to return to the area on breezy to gusty east winds. This
will mean daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as early as Wednesday, but more so late in the week,
which will help to lower temperatures below the century mark.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

We are well within an established deep and dry west flow pattern
across the Southwestern U.S., with a flat upper ridge of high
pressure nosing in from the east over our region. This will keep
our area very dry and quite warm. NBM max temperatures across the
lowlands have all locations in the triple-digits. The means are a
tad under Heat Advisory criteria, but bumping up to the 75th
percentiles, which have been verifying more often than not, place
our temperatures w/i the criteria for our lowest elevations,
which include the Rio Grande Valley today and Monday. Thus that
headline product remains in effect. The dry air means few clouds,
and very low RH. The coupled-effects of the hot and dry conditions
mean elevated concern for dehydration.

Winds will be fairly light under this minor ridging this
afternoon, but do trend a bit breezier by Monday as the pattern
shifts a bit toward west coast troughing, with a deep SW flow
ensuing, and some better surface troughing developing. Through at
least Wednesday, most of the forecast area will remain within this
hot and dry SW flow. The exception for Wednesday, will be our far
eastern zones, where Gulf moisture is expected to make a return,
for afternoon storm chances over the SACs/Guads/Otero/Hudspeth.

The ejection of a trough across the Northern Rockies will allow a
surface front to slide south and west down the Plains into the
Central Mountain chain of NM for Wednesday. Subsequent hard pushes
from the east Wednesday night and again Thursday night should
result in overnight breezy and gusty conditions across our
southern lowlands and sky islands, with a substantial influx of
more gulf moisture. The dryline will be staged close by to our
east initially, and then smear west and become diffuse near AZ/NM
border, with 50+ dewpoints across our entire CWA by THU and FRI.
This will result in daily clouds, and chances for areawide shower
and storm activity, as an inverted trough (easterly wave)
approaches from the TX Gulf Coast. These features tend to
underwhelm, but it does give us some added dynamics, above the
heating and orographics of the airmass instability. This will
ultimately break the streak of 100s for our lowlands. Once the
moisture arrives, there appears to be no strong flushing feature
to remove it, so NBM keep the dewpoints in the 50s across the
region well into the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies SKC.
Winds SW in the 10-20kt range. No VSBY reductions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Yesterday showed us what the next several days will look like as
we continue under a deep westerly flow regime, with weak high
pressure nosing in from the west today. Through midweek that
upper high will transition to a broad Western U.S. trough anchored
to our west, but the resultant weather will continue almost the
same. This means temperatures remaining well above normal, with
very dry conditions keeping skies mostly clear, chances of rain
nil, and relative humidity exceptionally low, with single-digit
afternoons, and poor night/morning recoveries. Winds will tend on
the breezy side for the afternoons, after lighter winds today, due
to weak surface troughing.

We see a shift in the pattern, with a transition beginning
Wednesday. This shift will allow for a backdoor front to push in
from the Plains, which will import healthy gulf moisture into the
SACs and Guads for WED afternoon. So possible storms east, while
the rest of the area will still be dry. However we see strong
nightly east pushes WED and THU night, to smear that moisture all
the way west to the AZ state line. With all areas see dewpoints
rise to the 50s, RH will be elevated, and storm and shower chances
will rise for the end of the week, and through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 107  77 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           100  68 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              104  69 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              102  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               79  54  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   101  69 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              93  62  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  103  64 101  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                99  65  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      103  73 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               104  66 104  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            106  68 107  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               97  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  106  70 105  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            102  68 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          102  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           102  64 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   104  64 102  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                102  71 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               101  67 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  91  58  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                89  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 88  56  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  94  56  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                99  65  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               101  61  99  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             93  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   96  61  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   101  58 100  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               94  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  96  64  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  101  64  99  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 100  64  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          100  65  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               94  63  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird