Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
865 FXUS64 KEPZ 191141 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 441 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, focusing across southwest New Mexico. Some storms could be strong to severe. Localized flooding possible with rain totals one to two inches. - Widespread rain showers tonight into Thursday morning. Snow levels above 9,000 feet. New rain amounts 0.50-0.75 inches along the Rio Grande valley. - Next round of rain chances timed for Saturday night into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 943 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 The low pressure system that will bring the Borderland rain showers and high elevation mountain snow Wed/Thu is currently sitting over SoCal and will progress eastward. Models are suggesting pretty good areawide coverage for rain showers on Wednesday. Instability values are lackluster with values generally below 500 J/kg, but plenty of shear will be around (0-6km shear of 50-75kt). Overnight tonight and into the morning hours Wednesday we can expect rain showers but turns more convective as we head into the afternoon hours. The strongest storms should be isolated in nature but could see some low topped supercells bringing the threat of gusty outflow winds and hail. Moderate rainfall possible as well but thankfully the added shear will allow for these storms to move off an area quickly before causing any flooding issues. However, if storms begin back building over an area - that could become an issue. Snow levels will be quite high (above 9500`) on Wednesday but looks like snow levels start to crash late Wednesday/early Thursday which would bring some high elevation snow. Snow levels start at around 9000` Wednesday evening but drop to around 8000` in the Gila region. By late Thursday night snow levels get to around 7000` but much of the precipitation has moved out of the area. Current snow totals look light with totals anywhere from just a coating to an inch or two on the highest elevations of the Black Range. The Sacramento Mtns will see light totals as well (a coating to an inch or so possible). In addition to the snow, rain chances look to persist late Wednesday and into Thursday for much of the area. Similar environment expected Thursday to what we`ll see Wednesday where there`s plenty of shear to work with but not much instability, and instability values look just a bit less than Wednesday but similar hazards can be expected. The system looks to move out late Thursday which may keep some lingering light showers behind the system but Friday looks much quieter with light winds, dry conditions, and below normal temperatures. Our next system arrives late Saturday bringing precipitation chances by late evening Saturday. This second system looks to take a similar trajectory in the way it makes it`s way onshore over SoCal/northern Baja and progresses eastward over central NM. Another round of lowland rain showers and light mountain snowfall. Snow totals look even less impressive right now compared to the first system. Looking like a coating to an inch of snow is possible through the day Sunday and into Monday for the area mountains. The system looks to exit late Monday and early Tuesday bringing another break through the day Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Scattered -SHRA this morning with skies SCT-BKN050 OVC080. TS developing after 18Z, primarily across W NM with more isolated SHRA along Rio Grande valley. Storms will be capable of temporary IFR visibility due to RA. SHRA likely for local TAF sites between 06-12Z Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings may need to be included in future forecasts. Surface winds prevailing 150-180 this afternoon AOB 10 knots, then variable with gusts up to 20 knots overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Low fire danger today with widespread wetting rains. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, especially for GNF where isolated flooding may occur. Light south winds 5 to 10 mph. Overnight rains expected into Thursday morning for both GNF/LNF and Rio Grande Valley. Conditions becoming dry Thursday afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph leading to Good ventilation. Cooler temperatures into the weekend. Another round of rain showers and high elevation (above 8000 feet) snow expected Saturday night into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 52 64 42 63 / 80 80 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 62 35 60 / 70 80 0 0 Las Cruces 46 58 33 58 / 90 70 0 0 Alamogordo 44 58 33 58 / 80 80 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 38 22 42 / 80 80 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 56 35 57 / 90 70 0 0 Silver City 39 48 30 53 / 90 80 0 0 Deming 46 59 33 61 / 80 60 0 0 Lordsburg 44 54 33 58 / 80 60 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 61 41 60 / 80 80 0 0 Dell City 47 64 35 64 / 60 70 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 69 39 67 / 70 80 0 0 Loma Linda 45 55 36 55 / 80 80 0 0 Fabens 51 65 38 63 / 70 70 0 0 Santa Teresa 49 59 37 59 / 80 80 0 0 White Sands HQ 49 59 39 60 / 80 80 0 0 Jornada Range 45 57 32 58 / 90 80 0 0 Hatch 47 60 32 61 / 90 70 0 0 Columbus 49 61 38 62 / 80 50 0 0 Orogrande 47 58 33 57 / 80 80 0 0 Mayhill 37 49 27 56 / 70 70 0 0 Mescalero 33 49 25 52 / 80 80 0 0 Timberon 32 46 23 49 / 80 80 0 0 Winston 34 49 23 52 / 90 70 0 0 Hillsboro 42 55 32 57 / 90 70 0 0 Spaceport 43 56 29 57 / 90 80 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 47 25 55 / 90 80 0 0 Hurley 39 51 29 56 / 90 70 0 0 Cliff 42 54 30 59 / 80 70 0 0 Mule Creek 39 49 29 55 / 90 80 0 0 Faywood 42 51 31 55 / 90 70 0 0 Animas 44 56 33 60 / 80 40 0 0 Hachita 44 56 32 59 / 80 50 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 56 33 60 / 70 40 0 0 Cloverdale 41 48 35 55 / 80 50 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt