Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
835
FXUS64 KEPZ 020512
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1012 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 921 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
- Showers and thunderstorms will end overnight with periods of
moderate rainfall and strong winds possible.
- Drier weather with breezy to windy conditions will occur
Monday with stronger winds in the Sacramento Mountains where
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph may occur along the east
slopes.
- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday with light
winds and temperatures remaining seasonable.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 921 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
Active weather will continue for a few more hours this evening
then begin taper off and dissipate in the early morning hours.
The band of showers and weak embedded thunderstorms is associated
with a strong Pacific front that is part of a larger weather
system moving from west to east across the region. After the
passage of the frontal system, conditions will turn dry and breezy
to windy for the lowlands throughout the day on Monday.
Stronger winds aloft will generate very strong winds along the
east slopes of the Sacramento mountains in the early morning hours
through mid day. Wind gusts up to 70 mph may occur along the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. A high wind warning is in
effect for that area. Temperatures will also be cooler behind the
front with lowland temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees.
Tuesday will also be cooler but a mild warming trend will occur by
mid week.
An extended period of quieter dry weather will occur the rest of
the week and into next weekend. Predominately westerly flow
pattern aloft will be in place. Low pressure troughs and short
wave ridges will transit through the region with little impact on
southern New Mexico and far west Texas. The westerly flow breaks
down next weekend and is replaced by strong ridge that will
maintain the dry pattern for the region. Tuesday through Sunday
will be mostly sunny, with light winds and seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 921 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
A Pacific frontal boundary with band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms continues to from west to east across Southern New
Mexico and Far West Texas. As of 05Z shower activity is tapering
off at KTCS and KDMN. Showers remain possible for KLRU and KELP
for the next couple of hours before ending around 07Z. There are
low ceilings associated with this band of weather that will lift
shortly after passing the through the region. Breezy west winds
of 15 to 20 knots will fill in behind the system as skies
gradually clear. Winds over the mountain ranges will be strong
with wind warnings in effect for the Sacramento Mountains for
Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 9215 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026
No fire weather concerns are forecast through the period. Showers
and thunderstorms have ended over southwestern New Mexico and
will soon end over south central New Mexico by early morning.
Monday`s weather will remain somewhat active with brief isolated
showers over the Gila Region and breezy to windy conditions,
especially along east facing slopes. The strongest winds are
expected over the Sacramento mountains where wind gusts could
exceed 50 mph along the east slopes. While wind speeds may exceed
critical thresholds, RH values will remain high in the 30 to 50
percent range. Winds will subside on Tuesday and remain light for
the remainder of the week. Dry conditions with temperatures near
seasonal are expected. Vent rates will be in the good to excellent
range for Monday then become poor with the lighter winds on
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 59 70 48 68 / 70 20 0 0
Sierra Blanca 54 70 45 66 / 20 10 0 0
Las Cruces 53 64 42 65 / 90 0 0 0
Alamogordo 52 68 43 65 / 90 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 39 44 31 47 / 100 30 0 0
Truth or Consequences 52 69 43 66 / 90 0 0 0
Silver City 46 58 36 63 / 100 40 0 0
Deming 51 65 39 67 / 100 0 0 0
Lordsburg 48 63 38 66 / 90 30 0 0
West El Paso Metro 61 69 50 68 / 70 20 0 0
Dell City 57 72 47 68 / 40 20 0 0
Fort Hancock 61 78 50 72 / 10 10 0 0
Loma Linda 54 64 45 62 / 60 20 0 0
Fabens 60 74 48 71 / 30 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 68 45 66 / 80 10 0 0
White Sands HQ 57 67 47 66 / 90 10 0 0
Jornada Range 53 66 42 66 / 100 10 0 0
Hatch 53 70 43 69 / 100 0 0 0
Columbus 56 68 44 68 / 90 0 0 0
Orogrande 54 67 44 65 / 90 20 0 0
Mayhill 46 58 37 60 / 90 10 0 0
Mescalero 44 55 34 58 / 100 40 0 0
Timberon 42 55 33 56 / 100 20 0 0
Winston 44 62 34 63 / 90 10 0 0
Hillsboro 51 68 41 66 / 90 10 0 0
Spaceport 51 69 40 66 / 100 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 43 59 30 66 / 100 40 0 0
Hurley 45 60 35 64 / 100 30 0 0
Cliff 50 66 38 70 / 100 40 0 0
Mule Creek 45 61 34 66 / 90 30 0 0
Faywood 48 60 38 63 / 100 10 0 0
Animas 50 66 40 67 / 100 10 0 0
Hachita 50 65 39 66 / 100 10 0 0
Antelope Wells 53 69 41 68 / 90 0 0 0
Cloverdale 50 62 40 65 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 10 PM MST this evening for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST Monday for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen