891
FXUS64 KEPZ 302331
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting through Friday, running 5 to 10
   degrees above normal. Lowland highs 102 to 108 each afternoon,
   followed by a slight cool down this weekend.

 - Limited thunderstorm activity through this evening. A pattern
   shift will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to
   the lowlands starting Friday and even greater coverage on Saturday.

 - Drier air moves back into most of the region for next week with
   the thunderstorm focus back over western areas and high
   temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

No real changes to model guidance for the short term. Upper high
currently over NM will be shifting to the west over the next 24-48
hours with upper flow turning more NNE and allowing for some
disturbances and a weak frontal boundary to move into the CWA.
Later this afternoon and tonight there will be a little more
convection that yesterday, but will remained focused along and
west of the Divide and in the Sacs. Overnight lows will again be
mild with most of the lowlands around 75-80 degrees again.

For Fri/Sat, a more active pattern sets up with a N to E flow
developing. At the same time a slow moving upper low will be
moving through the Upper Mississippi Valley which will bring a
weak frontal boundary in from the NE. This boundary won`t make it
into the lowlands until late Fri which will allow temperatures to
warm up into the 100-110 range. It will be close to the hottest
day of the summer for many areas. Expanded the Heat Advisory
throughout the lowlands as well as the foothills and valley
locations in the Gila region. As the front moves through, there
will be storms developing over the mountains and then pushing
storms onto the lowlands due to outflows. Moisture will be near
average with PW`s in the 1-1.2" range with weak shear and
instability so expecting more popcorn type storms to develop along
the outflows. Brief moderate/heavy rain is possible. For Saturday,
there will be a more shear/instability as well as moisture. This
looks like the main day to focus on with a potential for some
severe storms really anywhere but think parameters line up best
east of the RGV. Temperatures here will be about 5-10 degrees
cooler.

Drier air starts to push in from the NE as early as Sunday with
storms being much more isolated and mainly in the mountains. This
also looks like the "coolest" day with most areas not getting
above 100 degrees.

For next week, an elongated upper high becomes established across
the southern US. The strength is still in question, but both the
EC/GFS and their ensemble means support this and with a generally
easterly mid/upper level flow over the area, Gulf moisture stays
generally south and west bringing us back to the pattern we have
recently seen as storms remain focused over the Gila region and
west of the Divide. Temperatures will also climb back into the
upper 90s to around 105 for the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon with the primary
focus being over the area mountains and locations close to the AZ
border. KDMN has a few storms that are forming just to the
northwest of the terminals (as of 5:30PM) which may send an
outflow to the terminal shifting winds west to northwest. Much of
the activity will continue for a few more hours further west of
the terminal but northwest winds should probably continue.
Possible VCTS for KTCS and KLRU but storms have been pop up and
die. KELP should stay dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Friday is continuing to look like at least very close to the
hottest day of the year with the lowlands all over 100 degrees.
Even with these temperatures, the lowlands will keep RH`s above
10% and the mountains in the 20s and 30s. Northeasterly flow will
be developing and bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms
areawide Friday afternoon/evening with even greater coverage and
rainfall amounts on Saturday. Cooler temperatures and higher RH`s
will move in for the weekend with generally dry conditions Sunday
except in the mountains. For early next week, we will return to
weather similar to the last week with highs in the upper 90s to
around 105 with thunderstorm chances generally focused west of the
Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 108  77 100 /   0  20  40  20
Sierra Blanca            74 103  72  95 /   0  10  20  20
Las Cruces               76 105  73  99 /  20  30  40  30
Alamogordo               76 105  71  97 /  10  30  30  60
Cloudcroft               60  78  54  73 /  10  40  30  80
Truth or Consequences    77 104  72  98 /  20  20  20  30
Silver City              70  98  66  93 /  20  40  30  60
Deming                   76 106  76 100 /  20  30  30  20
Lordsburg                76 103  73  99 /  20  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro       80 107  77 100 /  10  20  40  20
Dell City                74 106  73  96 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Hancock             77 109  77 102 /   0  10  30  10
Loma Linda               73 100  70  92 /   0  30  40  20
Fabens                   77 109  76 101 /   0  20  40  10
Santa Teresa             77 105  75  98 /  10  20  40  10
White Sands HQ           76 106  76  99 /  10  30  40  40
Jornada Range            74 105  73  98 /  20  30  40  40
Hatch                    75 108  73 102 /  20  30  40  30
Columbus                 76 107  76 101 /  10  20  30  10
Orogrande                75 104  71  96 /   0  20  40  40
Mayhill                  63  91  58  83 /  10  50  30  80
Mescalero                60  92  58  84 /  10  40  20  80
Timberon                 59  89  55  82 /  10  40  30  80
Winston                  66  97  62  91 /  20  40  20  60
Hillsboro                74 101  70  97 /  20  30  20  50
Spaceport                74 105  70  98 /  10  30  50  30
Lake Roberts             60  95  59  93 /  20  50  20  70
Hurley                   73 100  68  95 /  20  40  40  50
Cliff                    67 103  66  98 /  20  30  30  50
Mule Creek               63 100  62  97 /  10  20  20  40
Faywood                  73  99  69  94 /  20  30  30  60
Animas                   75 106  74 101 /  20  10  20  10
Hachita                  73 104  72  99 /  20  20  30  10
Antelope Wells           73 103  72 100 /  20  10  30  10
Cloverdale               68  99  70  96 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso
     County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-
     Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-
     Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila
     River Valley.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern Dona Ana County-
     Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher