Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
103 FXUS64 KEPZ 111757 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1057 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Dry and warm through Friday. - A storm system this weekend brings a low chance of rain and high elevation snow showers and breezy winds. There is a trend towards drier conditions. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 After a chilly morning earlier, temperatures will warm up this afternoon to a few degrees above normal. An upper ridge holds over the region through Thu, allowing the warming trend to continue under fair skies. Winds will be generally light through midweek, although lee troughing across E NM will result in breezy west winds this afternoon along the east slopes of the Sacs. High temps will be about 10 degrees above normal from Wed-Fri (mid-upper 70s for the lowlands and around 80F for KELP), approaching daily record highs, most likely on Thu. From Fri onward, global models continue to trend slower and further north with the upcoming storm system. Precip chances have diminished area-wide based on the latest ensemble trends, but are still present. After digging an upper low off the SoCal coast Fri-Sat, the 6z GFS and Euro AI ensembles lift the low through Las Vegas sometime on Sunday and then the Central Rockies by Mon. This is a drastically different solution from this time yesterday when most of the models had the low tracking eastward across NM from SoCal on Sat, bringing us breezy winds and rain chances and high elevation mtn snow. The now most likely scenario is the low staying too far north to provide many precip chances for our area. Dry conditions and generally light winds are most likely Fri-Sat with continued above normal temps. The best chance of rain remains in western areas on Sun before the Pacific front rolls through late Sun. Rain chances will be low at best elsewhere from this system. In terms of winds, the frontal passage is expected to bring breezy conditions Sun/Mon, but confidence is low on impacts. The less likely scenario is the low tracking further south and progressing faster like we`ve seen in the models the last 12-24 hours (what the grids/13z NBM show), giving all areas at least a low chance of rain on Sat/Sun. Even in this wetter scenario, snowfall in high elevations above 8kft is trending down (up to 1" possible). Models are struggling considerably with the position and track of the upper low, so confidence in the forecast is low-medium and the models could easily flip again. Cooler temperatures are expected early next week behind the Pacific front with dry conditions. Another storm system looks to bring some impacts around midweek with increasing winds and precip chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds remain AOB 8kts through the day, becoming light and variable tonight. Mainly SKC expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. East slopes of the Sacs will see breezy west winds this afternoon as a result of surface troughing in E NM with elevated fire weather conditions expected. Otherwise, light winds are forecast today with dry conditions. Overnight RH recoveries will be fair to good tonight. Warm, dry, and calm weather continues through Fri. A storm system brings a low chance of rain and high elevation snow showers this weekend with low confidence in timing and impacts. Breezy winds also accompany the system, most likely Sun/Mon. Temperatures fall to below normal early next week. Min RHs will be 10-20% through Fri, then rising to 30-60% on Sun. Vent rates range from poor to good through Fri, then fair to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 46 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 41 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 39 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 35 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 42 74 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 47 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 43 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 41 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 40 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 32 75 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 38 79 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 40 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 39 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 37 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 35 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 70 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 36 74 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 72 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 32 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 33 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 43 74 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 78 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 42 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 73 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson