Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
386 FXUS64 KEPZ 281723 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Continued warm through Friday with isolated storms through this evening and increased coverage starting tomorrow afternoon. - Increasing rain and thunderstorm probability and coverage going into the weekend with a higher threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Saturday night through Sunday night look to be the wettest periods. - Temperatures remain near or just above normal through Saturday, then fall below normal Sunday, into next week, with more clouds and rain across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Upper pattern will be transitioning from having upper ridge centered over the Rockies to over the Great Basin as a persistent trough sits over the eastern US with a series of disturbances moving SSE through the Great Plains. This will lead to increasing moisture making it`s way into the area into the weekend leading to higher rain chances along with cooler temperatures. Currently, the upper ridge is over the Borderland with a noticeable subsidence inversion on the sounding this morning which should limit storm activity to similar coverage to yesterday which is generally isolated. Not expecting anything too strong out of what does develop either. GFS is keeping some light QPF through the night, and there may be some on and off showers that can develop overnight given the above average PW`s, but will remain limited in coverage and QPF. Going into Fri and Fri Night, we will start to see a slight lowering of heights as the first disturbance moves through Colorado and with the moisture in place, storms will develop on the higher terrain and outflows will be the main focus for storms onto the lowlands. Expect higher storm coverage over the lowlands than today as that inversion starts to get eaten away. Locally heavy rain is possible due to slow storm motions, but the better upper level dynamics arrive over the weekend. For Sat/Sun, the upper high gets broken down more with a more potent disturbance moving into the Southern Plains and the region gets in on the tail end of a cool front and an upper weakness setting up near the International Border. PW`s with this front move up into the 1.3-1.4" range. The added moisture combined with the area ending up between a high over AZ and one near the Big Bend area will provide the forcing needed for storms to become more widespread. GFS has backed off on QPF amounts, but ensemble mean is still pretty high with widespread areas of over a half inch total QPF through 12Z Mon. My thinking is this may be due to enhanced cloud cover limiting it`s instability over the area, but high moisture and the persistent convergence setting up somewhere near the border will provide enough lift to keep higher PoPs going. Favorable wind profiles for training storms with heavy rain as increased low level easterly flow over very weak mid-level flow and mean storm motion under 5KTS. Will likely need a Flood Watch at some point, at least for the higher terrain but the threat will extend down through much of the area by Sat Night/Sun. Temperatures over the weekend will be falling into the 80s for highs. Going into next week, some differences in the models with the operational GFS cutting off Gulf moisture and bringing in much drier air and little precip after early Monday. EC keeps moisture above normal for the area and daily precip chances going. Looking at the latest GFS Ensemble, it keeps scattered chances of precip going each day next week and have kept those in. With the region remaining in a NNW flow, temperatures will not warm up much and lower to mid 80s look reasonable going through midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 P6SM FEW-SCT090-110 SCT-BKN120-150 through most of the period with greater cloud coverage west of the Rio Grande. Expect similar storm coverage to yesterday with mainly isolated to widely scattered storms with best chances west and north. Light showers could continue through the night, but coverage remaining isolated. Not enough confidence to put even PROB30 at any terminal. Winds generally south to west AOB 12KTS, but a few outflows may bring some gusts to 30-35KTS later this afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Moisture will be on the increase into the weekend with fairly widespread precipitation expected. Rainfall amounts of several inches are possible in the higher terrain, especially eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Temperatures will be warmest Friday with 90s with RH`s in the 20s over the lowlands, but by Sunday, all areas will cool down into the 80s with min RH`s rising into the 30s and 40s. Rain chances drop early next week, but will not be zero. Temperatures will remain generally in the 80s with RH`s remaining above 25%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 73 93 / 20 30 60 30 Sierra Blanca 70 92 65 88 / 20 40 60 60 Las Cruces 69 95 68 88 / 30 30 60 30 Alamogordo 70 95 68 89 / 20 40 60 60 Cloudcroft 52 71 50 63 / 10 70 60 80 Truth or Consequences 69 92 68 90 / 20 50 50 40 Silver City 62 87 62 84 / 20 40 40 50 Deming 69 97 68 91 / 20 30 50 30 Lordsburg 70 92 68 90 / 20 30 30 40 West El Paso Metro 74 96 73 90 / 20 30 60 30 Dell City 69 97 67 91 / 10 30 40 50 Fort Hancock 73 98 72 94 / 20 40 60 40 Loma Linda 69 90 66 84 / 20 30 60 40 Fabens 72 97 72 91 / 20 20 60 30 Santa Teresa 72 95 70 89 / 20 20 60 30 White Sands HQ 73 96 70 90 / 20 40 50 40 Jornada Range 68 95 68 88 / 20 50 50 50 Hatch 70 97 68 91 / 20 50 60 40 Columbus 71 96 70 91 / 20 20 60 30 Orogrande 69 94 68 87 / 20 40 50 50 Mayhill 57 83 56 76 / 10 70 60 80 Mescalero 56 84 55 72 / 20 60 70 80 Timberon 56 81 55 75 / 10 60 60 80 Winston 56 85 56 81 / 20 60 40 50 Hillsboro 65 90 63 88 / 30 60 60 50 Spaceport 68 94 66 88 / 20 50 50 40 Lake Roberts 57 85 57 84 / 30 60 40 60 Hurley 64 89 63 86 / 20 40 40 50 Cliff 65 92 65 90 / 20 40 20 40 Mule Creek 62 87 61 88 / 20 40 20 40 Faywood 65 91 64 86 / 20 50 50 50 Animas 69 90 68 90 / 30 40 40 40 Hachita 68 94 67 89 / 30 30 50 40 Antelope Wells 66 92 66 88 / 40 40 60 40 Cloverdale 65 86 63 84 / 40 50 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz