Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
224 FXUS64 KEPZ 131206 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 506 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday, with some isolated to scattered rain showers mainly limited to the Gila. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional chances for light precipitation around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 An UL ridge covers the western CONUS this evening will a long-wave trough over the Pacific and more or less zonal flow over the eastern half of the CONUS. The UL ridge over the west will build through Saturday, largely remaining anchored until then. Fair weather will be the rule with highs near record levels with cool to chilly morning lows. Winds will be fairly light as well. A pattern change begins to take place late Saturday into Sunday as the UL trough over the Pacific gradually pushes east, reaching the AZ - NM state line as an UL trough by Sunday evening. Temperatures will remain warm on Sunday during the afternoon, but this initial s/w will push a Pacific front through the state ending our near record warmth, bringing temperatures closer to normal starting Monday. This initial trough passage has trended much drier with POPs all but eliminated except for portions of the Gila. Sunday will be breezy as well. A s/w ridge will pass over the area on Monday before another UL trough/low begins to influence the area starting Tuesday. Next week looks to feature active weather in the form of increased wind and rain chances as this trough stalls out just to our west. Temperatures will continue to run near or just below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We will see off and on high clouds today, giving us occasional high ceilings of BKN250. We will see generally unlimited ceilings tonight. Surface winds will be light and variable today through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 505 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 We will see quiet fire weather conditions for the next couple of days, but then we will have a weather pattern change which will lead to a little more active weather. For today and Friday, we will have light surface winds with min RH`s in the teens in the lowlands and ranging from 20 to 30% in area mountains. For the weekend into the start of next week, we will see a series of upper level storm systems move across the region. The first system this weekend will give us breezy to windy conditions both Saturday and Sunday. Min RH`s on Saturday will be near 20% in the lowlands and near 30% in area mountains. For Sunday min RH`s will be above 25% everywhere. Also on Sunday we will see a slight chance for rain west of the Continental Divide. For the first of next week, we will be cooler with breezy winds and min RH`s continuing to stay above 25% across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 53 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 59 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 73 44 70 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 46 81 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 78 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 43 82 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 76 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 83 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 81 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 41 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 41 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 71 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 77 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 73 39 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 44 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 32 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 35 74 42 70 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 48 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 48 79 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 79 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 74 47 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice