Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
086 FXUS64 KEPZ 140504 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1104 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1028 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will lift into Far West Texas late tonight into early Friday morning. - Thunderstorm activity will largely be focused over SW New Mexico tomorrow. Highly localized flooding possible. - An upper low traversing northern Mexico through the weekend will favor an uptick in thunderstorms east of the Continental Divide on Saturday, and west of the Divide on Sunday. - Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 It was a little more active today, at least over the Gila Region in terms of convection, but fairly quiet everywhere else. Now we`re faced with a very similar scenario to last night. A very weak outflow boundary is once again drifting across El Paso, though without sparking off any little renegade showers. Widely scattered storms are present across Chihuahua just south of Ahumada, and several CAMS runs show shower and isolated thunderstorm activity again drifting north into parts of El Paso and Hudspeth Counties in the wee hours, after about 1-2 AM. The RRFS members have a little more consistency than usual, and they favor pulling precip up a little further to the west than recent HRRR runs, clipping eastern El Paso, and perhaps maintaining clouds and light showers or sprinkles for a couple hours after sunrise. Once again played the PoPs very close to ELP, with slight chance PoPs (20 percent) generally over the west side, and ramping up to about 40-50 in the far east side of town. Better chances (60 percent) will be over east El Paso County into far western Hudspeth. Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows a broad upper tropospheric low centered over northeastern Mexico, with a closed low even showing up down to about 500 mb. It fits conceptual models pretty nicely, with mid-level westerlies kicking off an MCS in northern Sinaloa, aided by upper level divergence well west of the low. A tongue of mid-level dry air extends across the Arklatex region down towards the lower Pecos valley, and another area of diminishing convection extends from eastern Chihuahua up through the Trans-Pecos region...in the vicinity of a weak surface trough and an ill-defined PV anomaly around the 345K level, where you`d expect it to be in relation to the upper low. Meanwhile, mid-level southwesterly flow continues to stream moisture from the Sierra Madres up into the area. But the uptick in PWAT values has mostly gone to waste due to a lack of forcing and so-so instability (skinny CAPE profiles, and a bit of CIN if you consider the mixed layer as a parcel starting point). So really, the main driver the next few days will be that upper tropospheric low. But it will be crawling west overnight, with the favored area for convection setting up nearly in the same spot in "near west" Texas tomorrow. Convective debris and stabilization from any overnight showers and storms should quash precip chances in and around El Paso tomorrow. Further west, we`ll see a near repeat of today around the Gila and maybe a few storms down in the Bootheel. Saturday is the most favorable day as the upper low drifts into Coahuila. The PV anomaly band drifts into areas east of the Rio Grande, just behind a high-level deformation zone. Essentially the favored area just to our east will finally drift over us. A bit of low level SE flow will help top-off the low level moisture levels a bit. Expect widespread, "beefier" convection over the Sacramento Mountains Saturday afternoon, and a secondary focus over the Black Range, with NE to SW storm motions favoring outflow convergence in the lowlands during the evening. Not everyone will see rain, obviously, but coverage will be greater than the past several days. Sunday, we`ll have to deal with convective debris and stabilizationconcerns, especially east of the Divide. The upper low will barely inch into eastern Chihuahua, focusing the better upper level support for storms over SW New Mexico. Some drier mid- level air will work into eastern areas, but the dry tongue will be slowly filling in a bit. 500 mb temps will climb from around -6C Saturday to -4C Sunday over eastern areas too, further supporting a dropoff in convection chances east of the Divide for Sunday. The upper low, or perhaps weakened into an inverted trough, will pass just to our south Sunday night, usually the least-favored region for upper support. Sometimes the backside of these things can bring another uptick, but the inverted trough looks to dampen out for Monday. We`ll still be in monsoonal easterly flow aloft, but the subtropical ridge will be sprawling back to the west again, with some warmer/drier air working in as well. This favors a downtick in convection chances early next week, with temperatures attempting to tick back up towards the 100 degree mark in the lowlands again. Perhaps some relief mid-week as a weak trough tries to drop down the eastern edge of the ridge? Long way to go. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Very similar set up to last night with widely scattered TSRA south of the border slowly approaching far west Texas. High res models bring showers and thunderstorms into parts of El Paso and Hudspeth County in the wee hours again, but the question is how far west will the edge of the showers and thunderstorms make it. PROB30 for TSRA seemed the best bet for ELP between 07-12Z, but with no appreciable vis or ceiling restrictions. If storms do tuck in closer to El Paso, we`ll likely keep somewhat lower clouds and light showers around for a few hours after dawn, but still VFR. Elsewhere, VFR conditions expected through the night, with convection chances minimal on Friday outside of TCS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Moisture will be deepening over the region over the next couple of days with thunderstorm chances back on the increase for Fri and Sat. Temperatures for the lowlands during this time will remain under 100 degrees and RH`s will be 20%+ areawide. Some locally heavy rain is possible Fri/Sat with slow storm motion and some of the best deep moisture we have seen this summer. Upper high will become established back over the southern Rockies by early next week bringing a return to what has become the weather pattern of the monsoon season with generally mountain storms and the main focus on the Gila region. Temperatures for the lowlands will return to being near or slightly above 100 degrees next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 96 73 98 / 30 30 20 40 Sierra Blanca 66 92 66 93 / 50 20 30 50 Las Cruces 67 95 67 96 / 10 10 20 40 Alamogordo 69 94 69 95 / 10 10 20 60 Cloudcroft 51 72 52 72 / 20 40 20 80 Truth or Consequences 68 93 69 95 / 20 20 20 20 Silver City 59 85 60 89 / 10 20 20 20 Deming 65 95 67 97 / 10 20 20 20 Lordsburg 65 91 66 95 / 10 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 74 96 74 98 / 20 20 20 40 Dell City 71 97 70 97 / 50 20 20 30 Fort Hancock 74 98 74 99 / 60 40 20 40 Loma Linda 67 89 67 90 / 50 30 20 60 Fabens 72 96 72 98 / 60 30 20 40 Santa Teresa 71 94 71 96 / 20 20 20 40 White Sands HQ 72 95 72 96 / 10 10 20 50 Jornada Range 68 94 68 96 / 10 10 20 50 Hatch 68 97 68 99 / 10 20 20 30 Columbus 71 95 72 97 / 10 10 20 30 Orogrande 67 93 68 94 / 20 20 20 60 Mayhill 58 85 57 84 / 10 40 20 80 Mescalero 56 83 56 83 / 10 40 20 80 Timberon 54 81 54 82 / 20 20 20 80 Winston 56 82 57 86 / 30 40 30 20 Hillsboro 62 91 64 93 / 10 20 20 30 Spaceport 66 94 66 95 / 10 20 20 40 Lake Roberts 54 84 54 87 / 20 40 20 20 Hurley 60 89 62 92 / 10 20 20 20 Cliff 62 91 63 95 / 20 20 10 10 Mule Creek 60 86 61 90 / 20 20 20 10 Faywood 62 89 63 91 / 10 20 20 20 Animas 65 89 67 93 / 20 20 10 20 Hachita 65 91 67 94 / 20 20 20 20 Antelope Wells 65 90 66 93 / 10 20 20 20 Cloverdale 62 84 64 88 / 20 20 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman