Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
267 FXUS64 KEPZ 101748 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1148 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Drier conditions through tomorrow, with storm chances limited to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Rain chances increase again starting Wednesday as moisture returns, posing a risk of flash flooding. - Triple-digit heat continues for the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin through Tuesday. Slightly cooler conditions late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Upper high will continue to spin over the Four Corners today and tomorrow allowing for hot and mostly dry conditions both days. The best location for storms will be in the area mountains and western locations bordering AZ. The hottest day of the week ahead will be Tuesday where the lowlands will see highs in the upper 90s and low triple digits. Some locations in the lower Valley may get close to Heat Advisory criteria (Max temp > or = 105F+), but not expecting a large area of 105F+. Locations along the Rio Grande Valley will be the hottest locations with temperatures from 100F-104F. High pressure will dissolve and rebuild over the Gulf States and the Gulf by Wednesday, allowing a slight uptick in storm activity and coverage compared to Monday and Tuesday. Thursday and onward, it looks like the area will be under a good monsoonal tap of moisture allowing for scattered mountain storms and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the lowlands each afternoon. With the increase in moisture, temperatures won`t be quite as hot as Tuesday, but will be a handful of degrees "cooler". && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. All terminals are expected to stay dry today with the exception of the Gila region. Light winds out of the south this afternoon becoming calm overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Generally low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Mostly dry today (Monday) with isolated to scattered storms over the Gila region. Area mountains and western areas bordering AZ will be favored for storm chances today and tomorrow. Looks like a slightly better tap of moisture Wednesday allowing for an increase in storm chances and coverage compared to Monday and Tuesday. Thursday and onward, we will see the best thunderstorm chances with potential for flooding with storms. Temperatures stay several degrees above normal through Wednesday, cooling to near normal thresholds Thursday and onward. 20 foot winds generally light each afternoon at 5-10 mph with calm overnight conditions. Min RHs across the lowlands will be near critical to critical Tuesday afternoon at 14-20% and mountain RHs of 25-35%. Better moisture and storm chances Wednesday and onward will increase min RHs above critical thresholds with values of 19-30% and mountain RHs 30-50%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 102 73 99 / 0 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 Las Cruces 69 101 68 97 / 0 10 10 0 Alamogordo 72 101 71 99 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 78 54 75 / 0 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 72 101 71 97 / 0 10 20 10 Silver City 63 92 61 88 / 10 40 20 40 Deming 69 101 68 97 / 0 10 20 10 Lordsburg 68 98 67 92 / 10 30 40 20 West El Paso Metro 74 102 74 98 / 0 10 10 0 Dell City 70 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 75 101 / 0 10 10 20 Loma Linda 69 94 68 92 / 0 0 10 0 Fabens 73 102 73 99 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 100 71 96 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 74 102 73 98 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 71 101 70 98 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 71 105 70 101 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 74 101 72 96 / 0 10 30 10 Orogrande 69 100 69 97 / 0 10 10 0 Mayhill 58 90 60 87 / 0 20 0 40 Mescalero 58 89 59 86 / 0 20 10 40 Timberon 56 87 56 84 / 0 20 0 10 Winston 62 92 60 88 / 10 30 20 50 Hillsboro 68 100 66 96 / 0 10 10 30 Spaceport 69 101 68 98 / 0 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 58 91 57 87 / 20 60 20 60 Hurley 64 96 63 91 / 10 30 20 30 Cliff 65 98 64 93 / 20 50 20 30 Mule Creek 63 94 61 88 / 20 50 30 40 Faywood 67 96 65 92 / 0 20 20 20 Animas 68 98 67 90 / 20 30 50 30 Hachita 69 97 66 91 / 10 30 50 20 Antelope Wells 68 95 66 88 / 10 40 40 50 Cloverdale 63 89 61 81 / 20 40 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher