Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
377 FXUS64 KEPZ 030432 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1032 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances generally confined to the area mountains Thursday. - High temperatures through Thursday will remain near average through Thursday, becoming 10-15 degrees below normal this weekend. - Rainfall chances start to return Friday and into Saturday as tropical moisture flows over the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Broad high pressure will stretch from the EPZ area to southern British Columbia tomorrow allowing temperatures to rise just a couple more degrees tomorrow compared to what we saw today. As far as storm coverage goes, we can expect similar conditions to what we saw today. Isolated storms will get triggered off the area mountains with maybe a few isolated storms in the lowlands. The elevated capping inversion will remain across much of the area in response to the high, inhibiting storms from growing too tall vertically. Can probably just expect mostly showery activity with a lightning strike or two possible. Did increase POPs to mentionable (~20-%) in the area mountains tomorrow. Thursday doesn`t look too impressive either right now. It looks very cloudy in response to incoming Tropical Storm Lorena, which will inhibit storms greatly that afternoon. Tropical Storm Lorena still generally looks to cross the Baja, NW Mexico and then progressing over the EPZ area by Saturday. Forecast certainty remains low at this time and will need to wait for newer data as we are still several days away. At the least, the general trend suggests above average moisture associated with TS Lorena which could give areawide rain chances Friday night into the day on Saturday if we can get some instability and lift from the storm. On the bright side, it looks like we`ll have a good amount of shear overhead which will help storms progress instead of backbuilding/raining over an area multiple times. By Sunday, we`ll be on the backside of the trough with clearer skies and less moisture but looks like we keep thunderstorm chances for the area mountains, perhaps isolated lowland storms that afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with some high clouds mostly south of the Int`l Border. Expect light north to northeasterly winds tonight becoming southeasterly tomorrow afternoon with mild breezes (8-12G16-22KT). Any showers that do form should remain over the area mountains, not currently expecting terminals to see storms tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Above normal temperatures can be expected through Thursday with just a few isolated thunderstorms in the higher terrain with limited moisture to work with. Min RH`s the next couple of days will be falling into the mid teens to mid 20s. Going into the end of the week, there will be some remnant tropical moisture that moves up into the region, still some question as to how much will make it up this way. There will be cool down in temperatures and rising RH`s. Temperatures warm and RH`s dry out by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 87 60 88 62 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 88 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 88 64 91 67 / 10 0 20 20 Cloudcroft 68 46 68 50 / 10 0 20 20 Truth or Consequences 88 64 90 65 / 0 0 20 20 Silver City 83 59 84 61 / 10 10 20 10 Deming 91 64 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 89 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 91 71 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 90 62 91 64 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 67 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 63 85 65 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 91 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 89 68 92 69 / 10 0 10 10 Jornada Range 88 64 90 66 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 91 64 93 65 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 62 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 51 79 56 / 10 0 20 20 Mescalero 79 52 80 55 / 10 0 20 20 Timberon 76 51 77 54 / 10 0 20 20 Winston 80 53 83 54 / 10 0 20 20 Hillsboro 88 61 90 62 / 10 0 10 10 Spaceport 88 62 90 64 / 0 0 20 20 Lake Roberts 83 54 85 55 / 10 10 20 20 Hurley 84 59 87 60 / 10 0 10 10 Cliff 89 62 91 62 / 10 0 20 10 Mule Creek 85 59 87 59 / 10 10 20 10 Faywood 84 62 86 62 / 10 0 10 10 Animas 88 64 90 65 / 10 0 0 10 Hachita 87 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 62 88 63 / 10 0 10 10 Cloverdale 81 61 84 61 / 10 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher