Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
588 FXUS64 KEPZ 261136 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 536 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Mainly dry and warmer this weekend. - Deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo streams into the area Monday and Tuesday, with the help of another upper level low moving over Arizona. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall potential will return. - Skies clearing Wednesday, with a pleasant back end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Saturday and Sunday...ridging from the sub-tropical high develops over the area behind the exiting trough, bringing in mostly dry weather with suppressed cloud development. Both GFS/ECMWF show a vort center or possible MCS over the Sierra Madres of Mexico Saturday and this feature moves some moisture up late Sunday night. GFS actually brings some rain up late Sunday night to areas west of the RG Valley. Monday and Tuesday...we await the arrival of Polo remnants Monday and Tuesday as it gradually gets absorbed by mid-latitude low sweeping into Arizona Tuesday. Latest GFS run brings the remnants across west Texas, while the ECMWF brings it a bit further west over south central New Mexico. GFS corresponds better to official NHC forecast track. Both scenarios would have some potential dangerous impacts on our area, but the ECMWF path would especially impact the entire CWA. PWs increase to around 1.4 inches with the aforementioned vort center and then as high as 1.5 to 1.6 inches Monday night and Tuesday. These kinds of PWs are around 220% of normal and likely record highs. Obviously we are looking at another round of high flood potential, though briefer than this recent event we just experienced. GFS also keeps well defined surface reflection across west Texas Tuesday afternoon for some gusty northwest winds. Wednesday into the weekend...both GFS/ECMWF show the mid-latitude low over central or western New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Tropical moisture is east of the area Wednesday as PWs drop to under one inch. Upper low will still provide lift and with modest instability, isolated thunderstorms are still possible. By Thursday the upper low is out over the central Plains (slightly slower in the ECMWF), with short wave ridge moving over the area. Next Pacific long wave trough moves over the Great Basin. After Wednesday we should see nice drying out with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds AOB 8kts from S-SW. Mainly SKC through the day with SCT250 moving in from west tonight. A stray shower or storm possible in southern Hudspeth County during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 524 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026 No fire weather concerns are forecast into next week. Drier conditions this weekend with minimal storm chances through Sunday. Winds will be light today below 10 mph, shifting west-southwest. RH values remain well above critical levels today. Higher clouds move in for Sunday with low rain chances returning overnight as tropical moisture is pulled into the region ahead of Polo. High storm chances for Monday and Tuesday with a risk of flash flooding and frequent lightning. Gusty outflow winds and small hail are possible as well. Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, cooling down by Tue. Min RHs range from 25-40% through Sun, rising to 40-65% on Tue. Vent rates will be poor to good through Tue, better over area mtns this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 86 65 87 / 0 0 20 40 Sierra Blanca 61 84 62 86 / 0 0 20 30 Las Cruces 59 81 62 82 / 0 0 20 40 Alamogordo 60 84 61 85 / 0 0 20 40 Cloudcroft 45 68 47 64 / 0 0 20 50 Truth or Consequences 59 80 61 79 / 0 0 20 50 Silver City 57 77 59 75 / 0 0 20 70 Deming 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 20 50 Lordsburg 63 83 65 81 / 0 0 20 60 West El Paso Metro 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 20 40 Dell City 59 87 62 88 / 0 0 20 40 Fort Hancock 66 90 67 93 / 0 0 20 40 Loma Linda 62 81 63 82 / 0 0 20 40 Fabens 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 20 40 Santa Teresa 61 84 63 86 / 0 0 20 40 White Sands HQ 64 84 65 86 / 0 0 20 40 Jornada Range 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 20 50 Hatch 61 83 63 84 / 0 0 20 50 Columbus 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 20 40 Orogrande 58 82 60 84 / 0 0 20 40 Mayhill 49 80 52 77 / 0 0 20 50 Mescalero 50 78 52 75 / 0 0 20 50 Timberon 48 75 51 73 / 0 0 20 40 Winston 50 77 53 73 / 0 0 20 70 Hillsboro 60 81 62 80 / 0 0 20 60 Spaceport 57 81 60 81 / 0 0 20 50 Lake Roberts 39 79 51 74 / 0 0 30 70 Hurley 56 79 59 77 / 0 0 20 70 Cliff 41 84 55 82 / 0 0 20 70 Mule Creek 38 81 52 77 / 0 0 20 80 Faywood 58 80 61 78 / 0 10 30 60 Animas 63 84 65 82 / 0 10 0 60 Hachita 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 20 50 Antelope Wells 63 84 64 82 / 0 10 20 50 Cloverdale 62 83 62 80 / 0 10 10 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson