166
FXUS64 KEPZ 151703
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1103 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
   night as remnant moisture remains across the area favoring
   portions in and around the Rio Grande Valley.


 - Drier air moves in sharply from the west on Thursday. The rest
   of the week and into early next week should be dry.
   Temperatures will warm back to near normal temperatures for
   mid-October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Potent upper low is sliding into the Great Basin today, resulting
in increased southwest flow aloft. This will start the process of
an areawide dry out, but lingering moisture will still be capable
of producing another round of convection this evening into the
overnight hours. Axis of remnant moisture will poise itself across
the NM portion of the RGV, allowing isolated showers and storms
to favor the south central NM corridor.

The dry southwest flow aloft will reign supreme as the upper low
traverses the northern Rockies. This will all but squash
precipitation chances, with only a slight chance of a storm or two
in far eastern Hudspeth Co Thursday evening. Dry conditions will
prevail areawide thereafter. A slight uptick in winds can be
expected Friday and Saturday afternoons as a secondary piece of
energy breaks away from the parent upper low. This will help to
increase the H5 pressure gradient over the Borderland as a lee-
side sfc low deepens across southeastern CO and northeastern NM.

A ridge of high pressure aloft attempts to solidify in MX during
this timeframe, which would allow for a gentle warming trend
through the weekend. Some uncertainty in the influence of this
ridge, however, as the GFS continues to waffle on whether or not
to prog the aforementioned secondary energy through the Desert
Southwest or turn it into an orphaned cut-off low. The ECMWF
portrays a different evolution, with a large cut-off low in the
Pacific during the same timeframe, while it sends the main trough
across the Desert Southwest. This obviously creates a stark
different in H5 pressure heights into early next week. The GFS`s
12Z solution (vastly different from its 06Z offerings) would
result in cooler temps and breezier winds, while the ECMWF would
lead to a warm- up of above average temperatures. Both scenarios
allude to dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions likely to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Typical aftn breezes can be expected. Residual moisture may give
rise to isold shwrs/tstms aft sunset across srn NM. Any direct
hits to terminals could result in brief and lcl MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. Patchy FG will be possible overnight across the
lowlands but is unlikely to impact terminals.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A drying trend
will take hold moving forward as dry southwest flow aloft prevails,
allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip
into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized
instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. West to
southwest winds will increase slightly Friday and Saturday, becoming
low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical
thresholds. Considerable uncertainty remains moving into early next
week as models struggle to resolve the synoptic pattern. Should the
GFS prevail, more breezy conditions could be expected through Sunday
and Monday, while the ECMWF would bring a warming trend with lighter
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  83  58  79 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  83  53  77 /   0  10  20   0
Las Cruces               56  77  49  74 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo               61  80  52  75 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  59  39  55 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  77  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              46  69  44  66 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   52  79  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  73  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  80  57  76 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                59  85  54  80 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             64  87  59  83 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               58  76  52  71 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                   62  83  56  79 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  79  52  75 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  80  54  75 /  30   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  77  49  74 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  80  48  77 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  80  51  77 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  79  50  74 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                  50  72  45  67 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  71  43  66 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 47  68  42  63 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  41  70  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  77  45  73 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  77  46  73 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  70  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   46  72  44  69 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  69  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  72  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   48  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           50  78  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  69  46  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99