


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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166 FXUS64 KEPZ 151703 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1103 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night as remnant moisture remains across the area favoring portions in and around the Rio Grande Valley. - Drier air moves in sharply from the west on Thursday. The rest of the week and into early next week should be dry. Temperatures will warm back to near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Potent upper low is sliding into the Great Basin today, resulting in increased southwest flow aloft. This will start the process of an areawide dry out, but lingering moisture will still be capable of producing another round of convection this evening into the overnight hours. Axis of remnant moisture will poise itself across the NM portion of the RGV, allowing isolated showers and storms to favor the south central NM corridor. The dry southwest flow aloft will reign supreme as the upper low traverses the northern Rockies. This will all but squash precipitation chances, with only a slight chance of a storm or two in far eastern Hudspeth Co Thursday evening. Dry conditions will prevail areawide thereafter. A slight uptick in winds can be expected Friday and Saturday afternoons as a secondary piece of energy breaks away from the parent upper low. This will help to increase the H5 pressure gradient over the Borderland as a lee- side sfc low deepens across southeastern CO and northeastern NM. A ridge of high pressure aloft attempts to solidify in MX during this timeframe, which would allow for a gentle warming trend through the weekend. Some uncertainty in the influence of this ridge, however, as the GFS continues to waffle on whether or not to prog the aforementioned secondary energy through the Desert Southwest or turn it into an orphaned cut-off low. The ECMWF portrays a different evolution, with a large cut-off low in the Pacific during the same timeframe, while it sends the main trough across the Desert Southwest. This obviously creates a stark different in H5 pressure heights into early next week. The GFS`s 12Z solution (vastly different from its 06Z offerings) would result in cooler temps and breezier winds, while the ECMWF would lead to a warm- up of above average temperatures. Both scenarios allude to dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions likely to prevail throughout the TAF period. Typical aftn breezes can be expected. Residual moisture may give rise to isold shwrs/tstms aft sunset across srn NM. Any direct hits to terminals could result in brief and lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Patchy FG will be possible overnight across the lowlands but is unlikely to impact terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A drying trend will take hold moving forward as dry southwest flow aloft prevails, allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. West to southwest winds will increase slightly Friday and Saturday, becoming low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical thresholds. Considerable uncertainty remains moving into early next week as models struggle to resolve the synoptic pattern. Should the GFS prevail, more breezy conditions could be expected through Sunday and Monday, while the ECMWF would bring a warming trend with lighter winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 83 58 79 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 83 53 77 / 0 10 20 0 Las Cruces 56 77 49 74 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 80 52 75 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 59 39 55 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 77 48 73 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 46 69 44 66 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 52 79 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 73 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 80 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 59 85 54 80 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 64 87 59 83 / 10 10 10 0 Loma Linda 58 76 52 71 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 62 83 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 79 52 75 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 80 54 75 / 30 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 77 49 74 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 55 80 48 77 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 56 80 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 79 50 74 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 72 45 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 71 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 47 68 42 63 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 41 70 36 67 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 77 45 73 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 77 46 73 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 70 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 72 44 69 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 48 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 69 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 72 45 69 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 48 76 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 78 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 69 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99