Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
411 FXUS64 KEPZ 030030 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 502 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Dry conditions, daily warming, and marginal afternoon breezes through midweek. - A minor storm system passes just to our north early Thursday. Light precipitation will favor the Gila and Sacramento mountain zones with elsewhere staying dry. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming return for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 A longwave trough is currently visible on satellite attempting to carve its way into the Great Basin. The system will deepen into tonight as it swings towards the Desert Southwest. Generally moderated temperatures can be expected on Wednesday for the Borderland, alongside increasing clouds and locally breezy winds. The trough will swing into northern AZ late Wednesday, delivering a glancing blow to southern NM Wednesday night into Thursday. The best dynamics and moisture will be localized well to our north, but may still deliver some sprinkles and flurries to the Gila Wednesday night. The system will attempt to dig further south Thursday morning, with the best chances for mountain snow and valley rain favoring the Sacramento Mts. Less than 1 inch of snowfall is expected for the south central mts. Temperatures on Thursday will be decently reduced compared to Wednesday`s readings, with eastern zones seeing 5F to 10F of cooling and western zones seeing 4F to 7F of cooling. The system will broaden and eject into the Great Plains on Friday, leaving a regime of northwest flow over the Borderland. Temperatures will rebound quickly--especially out east--but will still be near to below normal areawide. The warming trend will continue through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west, bringing all locales 5F to 10F above normal by Sunday. Another dry shortwave may bring a small shot of cooling early next week, but otherwise no impacts to sensible weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail overnight, with some passing high clouds. WSW winds will become a little breezy again on Wednesday afternoon, with gusts around 18-23 knots possible after 19-20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 A weak storm system sliding into the Desert Southwest will bring increased humidity Wednesday amongst a slight increase of west to southwest winds. Light precipitation may graze the Gila region Wednesday night, with precipitation shifting to the Sacramento Mountains Thursday. Appreciable accumulation of rain or snow is not likely. The system will eject into the Great Plains Thursday night, allowing for a drying trend to take hold. MinRH will stay above critical thresholds in the presence of typical afternoon gusts through early next week. Ventilation will be a bit of a mixed bag, with the best widespread good to very good rates expected Wednesday. Poor to fair rates will prevail thereafter, with Friday being the only day that sees better coverage of good to very good ventilation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 45 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 38 54 34 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 60 36 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 35 54 30 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 40 25 35 21 / 0 0 0 30 Truth or Consequences 59 34 52 30 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 52 30 51 29 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 63 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 60 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 65 43 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 29 54 29 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 71 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 34 51 36 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 68 42 61 37 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 63 42 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 42 56 38 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 60 32 54 28 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 63 34 57 28 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 66 38 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 38 54 30 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 53 26 47 25 / 0 0 0 30 Mescalero 51 28 45 23 / 0 0 0 40 Timberon 49 25 43 23 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 52 24 48 20 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 59 33 52 30 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 60 33 53 26 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 51 21 50 24 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 55 29 52 28 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 58 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 54 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 55 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 63 37 58 32 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 62 37 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 63 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 34 54 37 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman