Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
142 FXUS64 KEPZ 040535 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1035 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Upper level system is currently bringing snow showers mainly to the Sacramento Mountains, with light sprinkles in a few lowland areas, mainly north of the I-10 corridor in New Mexico. - Snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains by morning will range from a dusting to 2 inches, with the higher amounts above 7500 feet. - Cooler temperatures are expected through the day Thursday, with cold temperatures Thursday and Friday night. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a shortwave trough extending from south-central Colorado into Arizona. You can also see plenty of moisture aloft well south of the border. Just a few days ago, models were trending towards a more amplified trough digging further south and tapping some of that moisture...but it was not meant to be. On the nighttime microphysics imagery, you can see a little northeast push from a backdoor cold front sneaking into the Sacramento Mountains. Though the steadier northeast winds are out over the Eastern Plains, some of that cooler and drier air has pushed into the eastern and northern portions of the Sacramento Mountains. This is making for somewhat disjointed snow levels, with snow levels around 6500 feet east and northeast of the main ridgeline, and closer to 7500-8000 feet along the west slopes. Webcams show it`s snowing steadily in Ruidoso and Lake Mescalero, with a dusting on the US-70 road surface at Apache Summit (7600`). A light accumulation is also covering the ground at Lake Mescalero (6950`), and it has just started sticking to the roads at Cloudcroft (8675`). A webcam at Sky Country Estates (8870`) looks to have roughly a half inch accumulation on the deck railing. This broken band of light snow will persist for a few more hours, then snow showers will become lighter and more sparse around dawn. Total snow accumulations by morning will be around 1-2 inches above 8000 feet, down to a dusting around 6000 feet. A dusting is also possible along Emory Pass in the Black Range, where precip is much lighter. Otherwise, it`s back to benign weather tomorrow, though cooler temperatures will prevail. Highs in the lowlands will be in the middle to upper-50s (about 4-8 degrees below normal), and the lower to middle-30s above 8000 feet (8 to 12 degrees below normal). Lighter winds and clear skies will make for a cold night Thursday night into Friday morning, with another shot at reaching the freezing mark again here on the mesa at Santa Teresa. Much of the Mesilla and Hatch Valleys will dip into the middle-20s, with 10s in the usual cold spots around the Gila. It still looks like KELP, downtown, and the east side of El Paso will stay above freezing by 2-3 degrees, though colder temperatures may creep up into the more urbanized parts of the Lower Valley. Temperatures will rise to near normal for Friday, while overnight lows Friday night will only be a degree or two off the previous night. We`ll see an overall warming trend, with highs reaching the middle 60s in the lowlands no later than Saturday. Dry and benign northwest flow looks to continue through the forecast period, with no strong winds or precip on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 A band of light precip will bring light snow over the Sacramento Mountains, and perhaps the odd sprinkle at TCS. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals overnight, with SCT-BKN mid-level clouds (5-7kft), though lower clouds will exist over the Sacramento Mountains, where a backdoor cold front is nudging in. Winds will trend towards light northerly Thursday with generally clearing skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A low chance of rain and mtn snow is forecast for tonight, mainly in the Sacs as a storm system tracks across northern NM. Light snow accumulations up to 1" are expected in the Sacs with slightly heavier snowfall (2-3") further north in Lincoln county. Winds increase from the W-SW this afternoon ahead of the trough, with 20-ft winds of about 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Min RHs (30-50%) will be well above critical levels, so elevated fire danger is not forecast today. Deeper mixing heights and transport winds are expected this afternoon, so ventilation will be very good, mostly. Light winds return tomorrow along with cooler temps behind the front, resulting in poor ventilation. No precip is expected after tomorrow morning through the weekend under northwest flow aloft. Typical afternoon breeziness is forecast for the weekend. Temperatures gradually rebound to above normal by early next week. Min RHs will be 25-45% Thu, dropping to 20-35% by Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 56 35 62 38 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 38 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 30 57 30 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 50 29 55 29 / 0 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 24 36 25 / 0 80 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 27 54 29 / 0 20 0 0 Silver City 49 25 51 27 / 0 30 0 0 Deming 55 27 61 30 / 0 20 0 0 Lordsburg 55 30 56 27 / 0 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 33 60 36 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 54 25 62 26 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 33 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 30 54 31 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 58 34 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 33 59 34 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 36 59 36 / 0 20 0 0 Jornada Range 53 23 57 25 / 0 20 0 0 Hatch 54 26 60 27 / 0 20 0 0 Columbus 56 31 62 34 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 52 30 56 30 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 44 27 50 29 / 0 70 0 0 Mescalero 42 25 47 26 / 10 70 10 0 Timberon 43 21 45 24 / 0 50 0 0 Winston 46 16 52 21 / 0 30 0 0 Hillsboro 49 29 56 29 / 0 30 0 0 Spaceport 51 27 55 26 / 0 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 13 52 18 / 0 30 0 0 Hurley 49 26 54 25 / 0 30 0 0 Cliff 52 23 57 20 / 10 20 0 0 Mule Creek 51 16 53 18 / 10 20 0 0 Faywood 49 26 54 27 / 0 30 0 0 Animas 56 31 59 30 / 0 20 0 0 Hachita 55 30 59 30 / 0 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 28 61 28 / 0 10 10 0 Cloverdale 56 33 54 32 / 0 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman