


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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610 FXUS64 KEPZ 160445 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1045 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Thursday, drier air moves moves back in from the west, shoving the moist air to our east. This will bring an end to the daily shower and thunderstorm activity across the Borderland through the weekend, and into early next week. Daily high temperatures will top out very near seasonal normals for mid-October. - Midweek, next week, a low pressure system off the Baja may pull in moisture over the Borderland, add some slight rain and storm chances for Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The short and near terms appear to be unfolding as we have been seeing in the models and messaging in our discussions and forecasts. Tonight still appears to be the last hurrah with the week-long fetch of tropical and subtropical moisture, slung in from the SW. We still have synoptic scale troughing to our west, but it, and the embedded impulses within, are on the move, and beginning to lift toward the Rockies. As the main area of low pressure w/i the longwave trough lifts to the Northern Rockies tomorrow, we will see a shift in winds back to the SW and W across our region. This will the change in our weather features that finally pushes the skinny channel of moisture out of our region to the east, as drier air fills in behind from the west and southwest. In fact, already we are seeing the erosion of moisture, as tonight weather sounding recorded only 0.96" PWAT. That is still well above mid October normals, but a trend downward. After an afternoon of drying SW/W winds tomorrow, our dewpoints will drop into the 30s and 40s, and our PWATS should drop into the 0.25" (west) to 0.75" east. That will effectively dry us out enough to prevent any further showers or storms. The drying will continue and intensify Friday with another passing wave from the west, and deep westerly dry flow into and across the Borderland. Through the weekend, and into early next week, we will see generally sunny to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be close to normal, riding a degree or three above or below the daily averages. Afternoons will become breezy Thursday and Friday afternoons, with deep mixing and good westerly alignment aloft. For the weekend, we see a change from earlier model runs, and the high pressure ridge we saw building up and over the region from the south, now looks to remain as a flat pattern, not building over the region. The difference in the forecast will be quite unnoticeable, with really no sensible changes. We will be seasonal, dry, sunny, with somewhat lighter winds through the weekend. This same forecast will hold steady for Monday and Tuesday with inconsequential trough passage to our north, tapping no moisture, but allowing for an increase in afternoon winds Monday. The next feature of interest looks to be a cut off low just off the coast of SOCAL, that looks to scoop up some moisture across Sonora, MX, and direct it over our region late Tuesday through Wednesday. Still too early to have confidence in this, but if it does happen, it looks to be a short window of moisture, before we quickly dry back out after mid week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally VFR conditions across the board, at all terminals through the period, with isolated lingering SHRA/TSRA tracking from SW to the NE in the VCTY of the Rio Grande Valley, with possible impacts over KLRU and KELP. This SW/NE line of storms will track out of Mexico. Those two terminal could see a brief period of lower CIGS and VSBY if a storm moves over. AFT 06-07Z we expect any development to dissipate with rapidly clearing skies to follow for the rest of the night. For tomorrow, winds will be more S to SW, with some breezy afternoon conditions in the 15-25kt speed range. Skies should be SKC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A drying trend will take hold moving forward as dry southwest flow aloft prevails, allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. West to southwest winds will increase slightly Friday and Saturday, becoming low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical thresholds. Considerable uncertainty remains moving into early next week as models struggle to resolve the synoptic pattern. Should the GFS prevail, more breezy conditions could be expected through Sunday and Monday, while the ECMWF would bring a warming trend with lighter winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 84 58 80 57 / 0 30 0 0 Sierra Blanca 83 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 78 50 75 47 / 0 20 0 0 Alamogordo 80 52 76 50 / 0 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 59 39 55 38 / 10 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 77 48 74 47 / 0 10 0 0 Silver City 69 44 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 79 48 77 47 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 74 48 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 80 57 77 55 / 0 30 0 0 Dell City 85 53 81 50 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 87 59 83 57 / 0 10 0 10 Loma Linda 76 53 71 51 / 0 20 0 0 Fabens 83 56 80 54 / 0 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 79 53 76 51 / 0 30 0 0 White Sands HQ 80 55 76 53 / 0 30 0 0 Jornada Range 78 50 75 47 / 0 30 0 0 Hatch 80 48 77 46 / 0 20 0 0 Columbus 80 51 78 50 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 79 51 75 49 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 72 45 68 44 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 71 43 67 42 / 10 10 0 0 Timberon 68 43 64 41 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 71 38 68 37 / 0 10 0 0 Hillsboro 77 46 74 45 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 77 46 74 45 / 0 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 39 68 37 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 72 44 70 43 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 75 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 70 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 72 45 70 45 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 77 48 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 77 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 79 48 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 70 47 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird