Area Forecast Discussion
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610
FXUS64 KEPZ 160445
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1045 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Thursday, drier air moves moves back in from the west, shoving
   the moist air to our east. This will bring an end to the daily
   shower and thunderstorm activity across the Borderland through
   the weekend, and into early next week. Daily high temperatures
   will top out very near seasonal normals for mid-October.

 - Midweek, next week, a low pressure system off the Baja may pull in
   moisture over the Borderland, add some slight rain and storm
   chances for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The short and near terms appear to be unfolding as we have been
seeing in the models and messaging in our discussions and forecasts.
Tonight still appears to be the last hurrah with the week-long
fetch of tropical and subtropical moisture, slung in from the SW.
We still have synoptic scale troughing to our west, but it, and
the embedded impulses within, are on the move, and beginning to
lift toward the Rockies. As the main area of low pressure w/i the
longwave trough lifts to the Northern Rockies tomorrow, we will
see a shift in winds back to the SW and W across our region. This
will the change in our weather features that finally pushes the
skinny channel of moisture out of our region to the east, as drier
air fills in behind from the west and southwest. In fact, already
we are seeing the erosion of moisture, as tonight weather
sounding recorded only 0.96" PWAT. That is still well above mid
October normals, but a trend downward. After an afternoon of
drying SW/W winds tomorrow, our dewpoints will drop into the 30s
and 40s, and our PWATS should drop into the 0.25" (west) to 0.75"
east. That will effectively dry us out enough to prevent any
further showers or storms.

The drying will continue and intensify Friday with another passing
wave from the west, and deep westerly dry flow into and across the
Borderland.

Through the weekend, and into early next week, we will see generally
sunny to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be close to normal,
riding a degree or three above or below the daily averages.
Afternoons will become breezy Thursday and Friday afternoons, with
deep mixing and good westerly alignment aloft. For the weekend, we
see a change from earlier model runs, and the high pressure ridge we
saw building up and over the region from the south, now looks to
remain as a flat pattern, not building over the region. The
difference in the forecast will be quite unnoticeable, with really
no sensible changes. We will be seasonal, dry, sunny, with somewhat
lighter winds through the weekend.  This same forecast will hold
steady for Monday and Tuesday with inconsequential trough passage to
our north, tapping no moisture, but allowing for an increase
in afternoon winds Monday.

The next feature of interest looks to be a cut off low just off the
coast of SOCAL, that looks to scoop up some moisture across Sonora,
MX, and direct it over our region late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Still too early to have confidence in this, but if it does happen,
it looks to be a short window of moisture, before we quickly dry
back out after mid week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Generally VFR conditions across the board, at all terminals
through the period, with isolated lingering SHRA/TSRA tracking
from SW to the NE in the VCTY of the Rio Grande Valley, with
possible impacts over KLRU and KELP. This SW/NE line of storms
will track out of Mexico. Those two terminal could see a brief
period of lower CIGS and VSBY if a storm moves over. AFT 06-07Z we
expect any development to dissipate with rapidly clearing skies
to follow for the rest of the night. For tomorrow, winds will be
more S to SW, with some breezy afternoon conditions in the 15-25kt
speed range. Skies should be SKC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. A drying trend
will take hold moving forward as dry southwest flow aloft prevails,
allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip
into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized
instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. West to
southwest winds will increase slightly Friday and Saturday, becoming
low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical
thresholds. Considerable uncertainty remains moving into early next
week as models struggle to resolve the synoptic pattern. Should the
GFS prevail, more breezy conditions could be expected through Sunday
and Monday, while the ECMWF would bring a warming trend with lighter
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84  58  80  57 /   0  30   0   0
Sierra Blanca            83  53  78  51 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               78  50  75  47 /   0  20   0   0
Alamogordo               80  52  76  50 /   0  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               59  39  55  38 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    77  48  74  47 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              69  44  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   79  48  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg                74  48  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       80  57  77  55 /   0  30   0   0
Dell City                85  53  81  50 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             87  59  83  57 /   0  10   0  10
Loma Linda               76  53  71  51 /   0  20   0   0
Fabens                   83  56  80  54 /   0  20   0   0
Santa Teresa             79  53  76  51 /   0  30   0   0
White Sands HQ           80  55  76  53 /   0  30   0   0
Jornada Range            78  50  75  47 /   0  30   0   0
Hatch                    80  48  77  46 /   0  20   0   0
Columbus                 80  51  78  50 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                79  51  75  49 /   0  20   0   0
Mayhill                  72  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                71  43  67  42 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                 68  43  64  41 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  71  38  68  37 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro                77  46  74  45 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport                77  46  74  45 /   0  20   0   0
Lake Roberts             70  39  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   72  44  70  43 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                    75  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               70  42  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  72  45  70  45 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                   77  48  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  77  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           79  48  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  47  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird