Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
477
FNUS74 KEPZ 242350
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for FRISCO...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
550 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions are low. Mostly sunny conditions to start on Tuesday,
clouds will increase through the afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms
likely. If storms occur in the vicinity of the incident, gusty and erratic
outflow winds, brief heavy rainfall, and lightning will be possible. High
temperatures on Tuesday in the low to middle 90s, depending on elevations with
Min RH values in the low to middle 20s. Winds throughout the day will be light
at 5-10 mph and generally variable in direction or terrain/diurnal driven.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the week each
afternoon.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent), becoming partly
cloudy during afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds possible with any vicinity storms.
Chance of pcpn......50 to 70 percent during the afternoon and early evening.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 90 for higher elevations, 94 to 96 for lower
elevations.
Min humidity........22 to 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
morning becoming light, then becoming west
around 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Winds
will generally be terrain and diurnal driven.Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL during the late morning and early
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west
around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (65800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........30 30 16 27 40 60
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 30 50 70
LAL.............1 1 1 4 4 5
Temp............69 72 82 89 91 89
RH..............55 49 34 24 23 26
20 ft wind......NW 4 NW 4 NW 5 W 6 W 4 W 8
20 ft wind gust.9 9 10 10 10 15
Mix hgt (ft)....2000 2000 6100 9100 10300 10300
Transport wind..N 7 N 7 NW 6 NW 6 W 8 W 8
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 12 49 49 66 66
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-55 percent). Isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 to 30 percent. Becoming less than 10 percent
after midnight.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Upper 60s to around 70.
Max humidity........50 to 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Winds
becoming terrain and diurnal driven during the
overnight
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL after sunset.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........43 43 34 47 47 36
Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 0 0 0
LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1
Temp............87 81 78 75 73 71
RH..............29 38 42 48 49 53
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 N 5 N 6 N 6 N 6
20 ft wind gust.14 14 10 12 12 10
Mix hgt (ft)....3700 3700 300 300 300 300
Transport wind..N 11 N 11 N 10 N 10 N 10 N 10
Haines index....2 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37 37 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Showers
likely in the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Low to middle 90s.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming west 5 to 7 mph
in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the west 7 to 12
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........28 40 62 67
Weather cov.....NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 70 70
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............70 77 91 89
RH..............57 43 25 28
20 FT wind......N 5G9 NW 4G10 W 5G12 W 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 9800 9600
Transport wind..N 9 N 9 W 7 W 12
Haines index....3 3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 67 78
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds around 6 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416638.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV