050
FNUS74 KEPZ 271246
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for RX Arrastra...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
646 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
No fire weather concerns are forecast into midweek. Mainly dry
today with increasing mid-high clouds. Light winds today, shifting
southwest this afternoon at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will be near
normal today with good ventilation this afternoon. Clouds continue
to thicken tonight with isolated sprinkles possible. Scattered to
widespread showers and storms move in during the day on Monday,
persisting through Tuesday night with a high risk of flash flooding
due to saturated soils. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are
additional hazards. Temperatures cool into midweek with degrading
ventilation rates through Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80200 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........62     48     46     46     57
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
Temp............56     65     71     71     72
RH..............53     46     42     46     46
20 ft wind......E 5    SE 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.8      10     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....800    6600   7900   8600   7600
Transport wind..NE 6   SW 6   SW 10  SW 10  SW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      46     77     80     66
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph shifting to the east 6
                    to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 8 to
                    9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........52     52     51     46     46     43
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     10     10     10
Temp............70     63     60     59     58     58
RH..............49     60     64     67     72     72
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    E 6    E 7    E 7    E 7
20 ft wind gust.13     13     12     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   500    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 8    W 6    SE 8   SE 8   SE 9   SE 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33     10     2      3      3      3
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Rain
                    showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    south 8 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........59        62        77        72
Weather cov.....S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        70        60
Temp............57        61        67        67
RH..............75        75        65        68
20 FT wind......SE 6G13   SE 7G18   S 9G20    SW 8G20
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1300      3800      3400
Transport wind..SE 8      S 12      S 16      S 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5         13        54        44
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the lower 60s. South winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. North
winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622435.4/EPZ
.DELDT 09/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mmunoz@blm.gov,jselby@blm.gov,gromero@blm.gov,nmsdc@firenet.gov