384
FNUS74 KEPZ 031521
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX Block 2...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
821 AM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on March 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

We will have a series of upper level storm system sweep across the
region this week. The first one arrives today, to give us breezy
winds with min RH`s of 10 to 15%. Critical fire weather conditions
are not expected today (but we will see elevated conditions). For
Wednesday we will still be dry but with less winds. On Thursday,
the next system will give us breezy to windy conditions with min
RH`s of 10 to 15%. We will see elevated to near critical fire
weather winds and RH`s, but RFTI`s will stay low in the 1 to 2
range. Vent rates today will be excellent and very good on
Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
 this afternoon. Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL. Transport
winds.....West 25 to 31 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (68000 knot-
ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (158000 knot-ft)
this afternoon.

TIME (MST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........13     13     14     21     21
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
Temp............59     65     67     66     63
RH..............19     14     13     13     16
20 ft wind......W 14   W 14   W 15   W 15   W 15
20 ft wind gust.29     29     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   6900   7500   7400   6600
Transport wind..W 25   W 29   W 30   W 30   W 28
Vrate kt-ft/1K..68     173    208    202    158
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 9 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (107400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in
                    the evening.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      6      4      4      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............57     51     49     46     44     42
RH..............19     24     28     31     35     39
20 ft wind......W 10   W 10   W 6    NW 5   NW 5   W 5
20 ft wind gust.23     23     17     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   400    400    400    400    300
Transport wind..W 18   W 16   W 15   W 15   W 12   NW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..107    6      0      5      4      3
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good
                    (129200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         7         9         15
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............40        50        63        64
RH..............44        30        17        13
20 FT wind......W 5G12    SW 6G17   SW 8G21   SW 9G22
Mix hgt (ft)....400       2400      7100      6200
Transport wind..W 8       SW 12     W 22      W 21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         38        125       113
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds around 18 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Southwest winds around 16 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Hayley Boss
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604032.8/EPZ
.DELDT 03/03/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.barone@usda.gov,nmadc@firenet.gov,hayley.boss@usda.gov