Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
129
FNUS74 KEPZ 220022
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
622 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will be LOW. Numerous showers and storms expected
during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. Min RH values will be
between 40-50 percent with temperatures in the middle 70s. Winds will
generally be light, 4 to 9 mph and variable in direction. Any storm that
develops in the vicinity of the incident will pose a threat for gusty and
erratic outflow winds, along with lightning. Excellent overnight recoveries
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
the weekend and into early next week.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny, becoming cloudy during the afternoon
and evening. Slight chance of showers during the
early morning. Numerous showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening. Wetting rains likely. Gust and
erratic winds in and around the development of storms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent, becoming 80 percent during the afternoon
evening.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4 until
1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Middle 70s.
Min humidity........40-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, variable in direction through the day.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph shifting to the east 6 to 9
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........75 75 62 70 70 76
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 70 70 80
LAL.............1 1 6 5 5 5
Temp............56 62 67 71 74 75
RH..............86 75 62 54 50 46
20 ft wind......S 2 S 2 SE 3 E 2 E 2 SE 2
20 ft wind gust.7 7 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 1500 4400 4400 4000 4000
Transport wind..S 10 S 10 E 6 E 6 E 9 E 9
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 30 30 32 32
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the evening, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................5 until 2100, then 4 until 0300, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
3 am.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........75 75 86 86 86 80
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 60 30 30 30
LAL.............5 5 5 4 4 4
Temp............73 67 64 62 60 59
RH..............49 58 65 70 72 73
20 ft wind......S 2 S 2 SE 2 S 2 S 2 SW 2
20 ft wind gust.6 6 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....2000 2000 100 100 100 100
Transport wind..SE 10 SE 10 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 16 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 3 until 1200, then 4 until
1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the late morning and
early afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west around 7
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (40300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........72 71 73 79
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE ISOLTD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 70 70
LAL.............1 3 5 5
Temp............58 66 72 75
RH..............77 61 50 45
20 FT wind......N 2G6 N 2G8 NW 2G8 W 2G7
Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 6700 5200
Transport wind..N 6 N 6 N 7 W 7
Haines index....2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 40 31
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around
60. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.5/EPZ
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov