832
FNUS74 KEPZ 021119
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Ft. Stanton Piles...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
519 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Drier air has moved into the area and that will significantly
reduce our chances for rain today. This dry weather trend will
continue through Thursday. For Friday and Saturday tropical
moisture will begin push into the area which will increase the
chances for rain. Min RH`s today through Thursday will range from
25% to 35%. Much higher min RH`s for Friday and Saturday. Winds
will be light, with drainage winds dominating at night for the
next several days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 7 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 7 to 10 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     15     29     29     37
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     10     10
Temp............60     69     74     76     75
RH..............64     49     35     31     32
20 ft wind......W 2    N 3    E 7    E 7    SE 8
20 ft wind gust.7      10     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   9000   9000   9700   9700
Transport wind..NW 7   NE 7   NE 7   E 10   E 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10     63     63     80     80
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (60300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........36     36     38     27     27     40
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............74     67     64     61     59     58
RH..............32     40     45     51     53     57
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   SE 3   SW 2   SW 2   W 2
20 ft wind gust.15     15     8      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....6700   6700   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SE 9   SE 9   S 6    S 6    SW 7   SW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60     60     3      3      3      3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph shifting to the northwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (73200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........29        16        24        45
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         20        20
Temp............57        67        77        77
RH..............57        45        29        30
20 FT wind......W 3G8     W 5G13    W 7G14    SW 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1900      1900      10000     10500
Transport wind..W 8       W 8       NW 8      NW 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13        13        70        73
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs around 80. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Dominic Bell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2521097.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dlbell@blm.gov