Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
364 FOUS30 KWBC 300100 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sat Aug 30 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 30 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... 0100 UTC Update -- Based on the latest observational trends, along with recent HRRR runs/trends and the latest HREF and RRFS QPF exceedance probabilities, we`ve been able to drop the Slight Risk across the Lower MS Valley-Central Gulf Coast region for the remainder of the D1 outlook period. In addition, the Marginal Risk area was cut back significantly across the Southeast, including much of FL (all except far western peninsula). Across the FL Peninsula and southern GA, the heaviest rainfall (best chance for training convection) is expected to remain offshore. Hurley ...Rockies into the High Plains... 0100 UTC Update -- Based on the latest observational and guidance trends, trimmed back on the northern portions of the Slight Risk area across NE-SD, while making minor tweaks to the Slight over the southern Rockies-High Plains. Hurley Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 30 2025 - 12Z Sun Aug 31 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS... ...20Z Update... The Slight Risk area across the Plains was expanded southwards into central Kansas and far northern Oklahoma, which was supported by hi-res CAM QPF, high HREF probabilities for rain rates exceeding 1 inch per hour and 2 inches per 6 hours, and moderate HREF probabilities for 24 hour QPF exceeding 5-year ARIs. Within this Slight Risk area, the high end potential is expected to focus over eastern Nebraska, where this will likely become more of a long duration event with high rain rates in individual storms. In the Southern Plains, the Slight Risk area was maintained from eastern New Mexico through the Texas Panhandle and into West Texas with small adjustments to the shape of the area to account for QPF trends in the hi-res guidance. An axis of high QPF values is expected to set up from far eastern New Mexico east towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area, which will be the area with the highest potential for flash flooding, especially near steep terrain and burn scars. Elsewhere, the broad Marginal was maintained across much of the Plains and for portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Dolan ...Previous Discussion... ...Southeast... During this period convection will focus near a lingering frontal boundary with a surface low and enhanced moisture transport. Thus it seems more likely than not that at least localized areas of heavy rainfall will remain possible from the Gulf Coast and possibly into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. The best threat would be for urban areas since local FFG are high across the region. The northern bounds of the Marginal Risk was lifted northward to include more of central Georgia. ...Rockies into the Plains... Increased troughing and embedded shortwave energy is expected during this period as the upper level ridging breaks down. This may result in widespread convection to develop and spread out across the Plains. The Slight risk was maintained from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and west-central Texas where the alignment of increased instability and higher PW values are better for an excessive rainfall threat. The right entrance region of an upper jet and an increase in low level moisture transport Saturday evening support an organized convective threat. This pattern supports terrain driven convection over New Mexico growing upscale as it moves eastward into western Texas resulting in an isolated to scattered flash flood threat. The Slight Risk that was already in place was maintained with only a minor expansion of the eastern bounds over central Texas. A Slight Risk was raised for this period parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas as the area of convection in the Day 1 period advances eastward along and ahead of the propagating front. Much of the guidance show areal averages of 1 to 3 inches with local maxes of 4+ possible. Campbell/Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 31 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 01 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS AND FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...20Z Update... Through collaboration with the Omaha Weather Forecast Office, a Slight Risk area was introduced for eastern Nebraska, which will likely see enough instability and moisture to support high rain rates in isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. Soils in this region should also be saturated from heavy rain/storms expected on Saturday, resulting in a heightened flash flood risk. The Slight Risk area in Texas was also expanded to include more of West Texas and a portion of Central Texas. This was to account for an increasing trend in QPF and the potential for repeat thunderstorm activity over areas that will be saturated by storms today and Saturday. The broader Marginal Risk areas for the southern tier and portions of the Central/Northern Plains and western Midwest were maintained with small adjustments. The southern Marginal was shifted south to better align with the forecast frontal position, which will be responsible for showers and storms along the Gulf Coast and Florida. Due to the southern shift, a portion of the Central Gulf Coast and the interior Southeast was removed from the Marginal Risk area. Dolan ...Previous Discussion... Heavy rainfall will continue to focus along a draped frontal boundary from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. The moist monsoonal flow along with embedded shortwave energies traversing the flow will help enhance rainfall amounts, particularly over southern New Mexico and West Texas where a Slight Risk for excessive rain persist. A broad Marginal Risk spans from eastern Arizona to the Southeast Coast. Convection ahead of the front in the Plains will continue to pose an elevated threat for excessive rainfall. A Marginal Risk was carried over from yesterday`s Day 4 period. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt