Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
227 FXUS64 KEWX 151115 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 515 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog during this morning and Sunday morning - Unseasonably warm into next week, could approach daily record highs early next week - Slow moving storm system to bring a return to rain and storm chances (40-70%) middle to late next week && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The mid-level ridging across the region transitions to more of a west-southwesterly flow aloft this weekend with some influence from the longwave trough pattern that establishes across the western CONUS. Embedded within the larger trough setup, a shortwave should pivot northeastward across the Four Corners through Sunday and towards the central plains into Monday. However, do not expect any significant changes to our weather from this shortwave as we`ll remain firmly within the warm sector with continued unseasonably warm temperatures. The southerly flow will continue to prevail and provides some supply of low-level moisture from the Gulf waters. This yields to the muggy nights with development of morning low clouds and fog. Patchy to areas of fog for this morning favors locations along and south/west of the I-10 corridor where the HREF and REFS probabilities show medium (30-60%) chances of visibility around or below a 1/2 mile. The signal for fog entering Sunday morning favor more along and east of the I-35 corridor. The low clouds and fog erode by mid to late each morning with mostly clear skies prevailing from the afternoon through the first half of the night. The daily record highs across the region are a bit lower on Sunday in comparison to the records for today`s date where those values on Sunday could be the first to be challenged on being at least reached in the days ahead. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Very warm and humid conditions maintain early next week as the region remains under a west-southwesterly flow aloft in advance of the troughing out west. Some increase in the southerly low-level flow helps to result in stronger thermal (theta-E) ridging. This allows for the afternoon highs to continue to threaten the daily record highs into midweek. Overnights will remain very warm and humid as well with development of morning low clouds. Fog also remains a possibly but depends on the wind speeds and nocturnal mixing. Moisture may become deep enough Tuesday and Tuesday night where the opportunity could exist for a stray low topped shower and/or some patchy drizzle. A slow moving storm system is then modeled to evolve from mid to late next week from the Desert Southwest east into the central CONUS. The placement, amplification, and timing of this system continues to remain a bit inconsistent from run to run on medium range guidance. Despite a lower than usual confidence within the forecast from Wednesday onward, the most recent blended (NBM) guidance signals the best rain and storm (40-70%) chances to the region in quite some time, with values peaking during Thursday across the area. The combination of enough instability and shear could factor in to result in the opportunity for some organized strong to severe storms as well, in addition to locally heavy rainfall. The ensemble means, however, favor North Texas through Eastern Oklahoma as the greater footprint for the highest rain amounts. Area temperatures should lower from the record highs occurring earlier in the week, initially with the increased cloudiness and any rain-cooled air, then in association with the post-frontal airmass that may follow in the wake of this storm system. Continue to check into the forecast through the upcoming days as these details regarding this system become ironed out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Airmass remains a bit more mixed than earlier indicated. IFR/MVFR CIGs with TEMPOs MVFR VSBYs will mix to VFR by around midday, then return overnight into early Sunday morning. S to SE winds 5 to 10 KTs increase to 10 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 25 possible later this morning, then decrease to 5 to 10 KTs tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Record High Temperatures Day Sun Mon Tue Date 11/16 11/17 11/18 AUS 87/2016 89/2013 84/2017 ATT 87/1938 90/2013 85/1921&1986 SAT 86/1938 89/2013 88/1986&2017 DRT 89/1938 91/190687/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 83 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 85 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...04