Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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419
FXUS64 KEWX 151812
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1212 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm into next week, record highs possible Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- Rain chances return for middle to late next week however
  confidence continues to remain low on timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Continued quiet in the short term as our area remains under decent
upper level ridging with an eventual shift to southwesterly flow
aloft through the period. It will remain warm and muggy as low level
southerly flow continues to pump in moist air from the Gulf with dew
points in the low to mid 60s likely. This humid airmass will likely
keep low temps elevated several degrees above seasonal averages for
this time of year with many areas remaining in the upper 50s to low
60s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will similarly be
nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal with many locations with highs
well into the 80s and even some low 90s not out of the question. We
don`t cool off much as the combination of upper level ridging and
decent southerly flow help to keep all the moisture locked into
place over our area. Expect lows Sunday night to be even warmer then
tonights with many remaining in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The long term starts out with the upper-level ridge elongating
and shifting east by Monday ahead of an approaching deep-layer
trough over the Intermountain West. This allows for our area to
really heat up as warm mid level southwesterly flow helps to boost
temperatures area wide as a weak surface trough develops over TX
and OK. Temperatures under this scenario could really heat up with
several daily highs being tied or broken Sunday through
Tuesday(See climate Section below). Along with the really moist
air and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s- low 70s it`l feel very
much like summer out there instead of fall.

By mid week global models continue suggesting that as the upper
level ridge flattens out and pushes off to the east an incoming
trough will dig its way down into the desert southwest and
eventually make its way east somewhere across TX or OK. Model
consistency form run to run is still quite poor thus any solution
could pan out with some models bringing the trough north and
eastward swinging it through northern TX into OK. Other models
including the GFS and Euro suggest a more zonal faster approach with
the latter solution becoming very favorable for the possibility of
heavy rainfall and organized severe weather. Regardless, there
remains uncertainty among the models and their respective ensembles
and AI versions with respect to the timing, track, and strength of a
mid level trough and its attendant surface cold front. It likely
won`t be until possibly next week that the initial impulse is first
sampled and observed by upper-air stations on the West Coast. Once
this happens we will likely have a more confident forecast in how
this trough and scenario evolves. However, despite this the most
recent blended (NBM) guidance signals the best rain and storm (40-
80%) chances for our area in quite some time, with values likely
peaking Thursday. After this system moves out of our area expect to
see cooler air move into the region on the backside of this system.
We could see temperatures return to more seasonable averages with
highs in the 70s and lows in mid 40s to near 50. Continue to check
back often as these details continue to become clearer in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Stratus are thinning out along the escarpment at TAF issuance time,
so another hour of MVFR skies are expected for over I-35 sites
while DRT has broken out to VFR. Mixed winds from aloft
will keep a few hours of SW wind components across I-35 with late
day directions swinging back to true S or SSE. DRT winds will
continue to follow typical diurnal trends of SE daytime to E
nighttime. A good ridge amplitude continues from TX into the central
CONUS, meaning the pressure gradient will be light to moderate,
and the there will be more hours of early to late morning cigs for
Sunday. Some occasional ceilings from 700 to 900 FT AGL are possible
close to daybreak.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Record High Temperatures

Day     Sun      Mon      Tue
Date   11/16    11/17    11/18

AUS   87/2016  89/2013  84/2017
ATT   87/1938  90/2013  85/1921&1986
SAT   86/1938  89/2013  88/1986&2017
DRT   89/1938  91/190687/1986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  88  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  85  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             59  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  87  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  85  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           63  88  66  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18