Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
419 FXUS64 KEWX 151812 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1212 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm into next week, record highs possible Sunday through Tuesday. - Rain chances return for middle to late next week however confidence continues to remain low on timing. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Continued quiet in the short term as our area remains under decent upper level ridging with an eventual shift to southwesterly flow aloft through the period. It will remain warm and muggy as low level southerly flow continues to pump in moist air from the Gulf with dew points in the low to mid 60s likely. This humid airmass will likely keep low temps elevated several degrees above seasonal averages for this time of year with many areas remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will similarly be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal with many locations with highs well into the 80s and even some low 90s not out of the question. We don`t cool off much as the combination of upper level ridging and decent southerly flow help to keep all the moisture locked into place over our area. Expect lows Sunday night to be even warmer then tonights with many remaining in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The long term starts out with the upper-level ridge elongating and shifting east by Monday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the Intermountain West. This allows for our area to really heat up as warm mid level southwesterly flow helps to boost temperatures area wide as a weak surface trough develops over TX and OK. Temperatures under this scenario could really heat up with several daily highs being tied or broken Sunday through Tuesday(See climate Section below). Along with the really moist air and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s- low 70s it`l feel very much like summer out there instead of fall. By mid week global models continue suggesting that as the upper level ridge flattens out and pushes off to the east an incoming trough will dig its way down into the desert southwest and eventually make its way east somewhere across TX or OK. Model consistency form run to run is still quite poor thus any solution could pan out with some models bringing the trough north and eastward swinging it through northern TX into OK. Other models including the GFS and Euro suggest a more zonal faster approach with the latter solution becoming very favorable for the possibility of heavy rainfall and organized severe weather. Regardless, there remains uncertainty among the models and their respective ensembles and AI versions with respect to the timing, track, and strength of a mid level trough and its attendant surface cold front. It likely won`t be until possibly next week that the initial impulse is first sampled and observed by upper-air stations on the West Coast. Once this happens we will likely have a more confident forecast in how this trough and scenario evolves. However, despite this the most recent blended (NBM) guidance signals the best rain and storm (40- 80%) chances for our area in quite some time, with values likely peaking Thursday. After this system moves out of our area expect to see cooler air move into the region on the backside of this system. We could see temperatures return to more seasonable averages with highs in the 70s and lows in mid 40s to near 50. Continue to check back often as these details continue to become clearer in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Stratus are thinning out along the escarpment at TAF issuance time, so another hour of MVFR skies are expected for over I-35 sites while DRT has broken out to VFR. Mixed winds from aloft will keep a few hours of SW wind components across I-35 with late day directions swinging back to true S or SSE. DRT winds will continue to follow typical diurnal trends of SE daytime to E nighttime. A good ridge amplitude continues from TX into the central CONUS, meaning the pressure gradient will be light to moderate, and the there will be more hours of early to late morning cigs for Sunday. Some occasional ceilings from 700 to 900 FT AGL are possible close to daybreak. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Record High Temperatures Day Sun Mon Tue Date 11/16 11/17 11/18 AUS 87/2016 89/2013 84/2017 ATT 87/1938 90/2013 85/1921&1986 SAT 86/1938 89/2013 88/1986&2017 DRT 89/1938 91/190687/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 59 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 63 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...18