631
FXUS64 KEWX 062335
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low (15-25%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Labor Day


- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
  through much of next week

- Above average temperatures through the week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a large amplitude ridge
stretching from West Texas to MN. A weak disturbance over the
northwestern Gulf is generating showers and thunderstorms from the
TX coast to the Hill Country. Storm coverage over our CWA is
isolated at this time. The mid to upper ridge will continue its
slow shift to the east through the short term period, but still
dominate over Texas. By the start of this period, this evening,
any afternoon convection should be coming to an end leaving the
area dry overnight. The weak disturbance from the Gulf will be
dissipating over the state Monday, but will still generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country.
Temperatures will be above normal. Highs Monday will be about five
degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper ridge will break down over the northern part of
the country, but continue to control the weather over the southern
states. Southeasterly low level flow will keep hot, moist air over
South-Central Texas. There may be some seabreeze convection each
day Tuesday through Thursday over the Coastal Plains, but chances
are low. Most of the area will be hot and dry. Temperatures will
be steady and above normal through the week. The NBM is showing
higher humidity into the week, but it has tended to run moist in
the medium term. The forecast higher dewpoints have not developed.
However, if the higher dewpoints verify we will reach Heat
Advisory criteria over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

TSRA/SHRA has ended for most of the area and calmer VFR conditions
should persist overnight. Residual outflows from earlier storms
should cause some wind shifts and breezy conditions for a few
hours KSAT/KSSF but a weak prevailing SE flow should return after
06Z. Isolated SHRA is possible again after 18Z mainly near KAUS
and KT82/STV VORTAC, but probabilities were too low to note in the
00Z TAF and coverage is expected to be lower than Sunday`s
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  78 100 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  76  99 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  77  99 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  97  77  99 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76 100 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  98  77  99 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  78  99 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 100  78 100 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...Tran