Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
041 FXUS64 KEWX 282353 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms along and east of the I-35 corridor today. - Rain chances shift westward Thursday into Friday with locally heavy rain possible for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains. - Mild temperatures persist through the weekend and into early next week before a cold front moves through Tuesday providing another opportunity for rain and cooler temperatures into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Visible satellite imagery shows an enhanced cu field along the middle Texas coast where GOES blended PWAT values of around 1.75" are noted. Some light showers are noted across this region as well as extending farther inland into the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor. Hi-res models tend to favor areas generally along and east of I-35 today for some afternoon into early evening convection. Suspect most of this activity will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Attention will then turn westward into the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau for the overnight hours as the low-level jet begins to increase, helping to provide an uptick in low-level moisture. In addition, a series of mid-level disturbances embedded in southwest flow aloft will move in and aid in the development of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The latest model guidance continues to heavily favor the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country for the highest rain chances on Thursday. The low- level jet appears to be much stronger Thursday night across the above mentioned areas, so rain chances remain high, along with the concern for some locally heavy rainfall. The WPC continues to maintain a Level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rainfall generally west of a Kerrville to Carrizo Springs line, with a level 1 of 4 risk extending to near the U.S. Highway 281 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 A decrease in mid-level shortwave activity is anticipated by Friday afternoon, so a gradual decrease in the intensity of rain should follow. However, we continue to see adequate moisture along with an upper level jet moving in from the west, so rain chances will continue out west and spread eastward across the remainder of south central Texas. The highest rainfall amounts for Thursday and Friday still remain focused across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region, especially Val Verde and Edwards Counties, where rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts up to 4 inches are possible. Amounts will taper significantly as you head east into the I-35 corridor, where around 1/2" are forecast. On Saturday, some lingering moisture and instability will be present over most of the region, but rain chances should generally remain favored mainly north of U.S. Highway 90. With the loss of daytime heating, rain chances drop out of the forecast Saturday evening and overnight. Mid-level ridging builds over the area Sunday in advance of a deepening upper trough over the western U.S., which should yield dry weather for most of the region. The next weather system to impact the region will be dropping southward into the southern U.S. plains states early next week. We do continue to see some timing differences between the operational GFS and ECMWF and for now will show an increase in rain chances for most of the region beginning Monday night with a cold front expected to move through on Tuesday. Both of the above mentioned models do show a line of convection with the passage of the cold front, so another opportunity for rainfall exists for areas likely to miss out on the Thursday and Friday rainfall event. The front is expected to drop temperatures to near or slightly below normal for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR CIGs prevail for the majority of this evening before dropping considerably overnight into IFR and perhaps to LIFR range. Eventually all I-35 terminals should experience some precip chances with confidence in rain remaining highest at KDRT late tonight followed by a gradual spread eastward into the San Antonio metro by late morning Thursday. I-35 sites could also experience a short period of fog but it shouldn`t be particularly dense. Ceilings should improve by the late afternoon hours for all I-35 TAF sites. However, KDRT will continue to experience poor flying conditions with showers likely throughout the entire period along with very low ceilings in the IFR/LIFR range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 79 64 76 / 10 30 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 80 62 77 / 10 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 80 63 77 / 10 30 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 66 74 61 72 / 10 50 30 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 73 64 74 / 50 90 90 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 78 62 75 / 10 30 20 40 Hondo Muni Airport 66 76 62 75 / 30 70 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 80 61 78 / 10 20 20 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 83 63 80 / 10 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 78 64 76 / 20 40 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 68 79 65 77 / 20 40 30 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...CJM