159
FXUS64 KEWX 141914 CCA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

CORRECTED

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Heat Advisory for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains today and
  for Coastal Plains, Williamson, and Travis Counties Tuesday.

- Low rain chances (10-20%) each day through the week, mainly over
  the Coastal Plains.

- Humid morning conditions and above average temperatures continue
  through the the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Mid-level ridging is noted on regional water vapor imagery,
primarily centered over the southeastern CONUS. On the southwestern
periphery of this ridge, a weak upper low will slide westward today
and tomorrow, helping to enhance the seabreeze. This will result in
isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms over the Coastal
Plains today and again Tuesday. Not to be outdone, the added
moisture has been rather notable the last several days with muggy,
nasty mornings in the upper 70s to lower 80s and hot/humid
afternoons and highs in the mid 90s to around 103. Factoring in the
humidity will make it feel like 108-111 for the I-35 Corridor and
Coastal Plains today, but a shift a bit further east in the highest
heat indices is expected tomorrow. Most locations will remain hot
and dry but you may get lucky with a quick downpour this afternoon
or Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Wednesday and Thursday will bring the best shot at rain in some
time, but it`s not a washout by any means. The aforementioned upper
low over the northern Gulf will move inland and then be absorbed by
the mid-level ridge by Thursday. Despite this scenario, some showers
and storms are expected and coverage should be higher than Monday
and Tuesday as moisture works further inland. Beyond Thursday, the
ECMWF and GFS are in disagreement on the long term pattern, with
notable differences with the development of a large scale trough out
west and what may transpire as an inverted trough slides east over
the northern Gulf this upcoming weekend. For now, will stick with
the NBM, but things could certainly become more active towards the
weekend if things line up properly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Most sites have returned to VFR CIGs, expect this to continue
through this evening before MVFR CIGs make a return in the pre
dawn hours 08/09Z for KSSF and KSAT. There is a very low chance
(less than 20 percent) for an isolated shower or storm but have
kept mention out of this TAF package for now. Much like the past
couple days, shower and storm activity may try to progress
westward with the seabreeze but its unclear how far west it gets.
For KAUS VFR CIGs expected throughout the period but there is a
possibility seeing MVFR CIGs overnight however models are not in
agreement so have kept out of TAFs for now. Expect VFR CIGs to
return to all I-35 TAF sites by 13/14Z tomorrow. VFR and gusty SE
winds expected throughout the period for KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 102  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 101  76 100 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77 100  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 101  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 101  75  99 /  10   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77 101  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 102  76 100 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ173-192>194-
209-225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...CJM