885
FXUS64 KEWX 061825
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered rains today.

- Warm and humid weather next week with most areas remaining dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The upper-level low that contributed to last night`s scattered
torrential rains is moving northeast, allowing a conveyor belt of
drier air aloft to work its way over South-Central Texas with the
more favored regions for heavy rain being pushed north and east of
the area. This subsidence should tend to have a suppressive effect
on storm potential in our region today, though the continued
presence of humid near-surface conditions should support isolated
shower activity heading into the evening today. Chances are greatest
east of I-35 (in the 30 to 50 percent range along the Highway 77
corridor) where PWATs are still in the 1.7-1.9 inch range (around
the 90th-95th percentile) and could support a few locally heavier
downpours. There is also a around 20 to 30 percent chance of
isolated showers closer to the upper-level low over the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country through the evening, though overall
moisture content will be lower than yesterday. Given the sensitivity
of some of our soils from recent rains, it will still be worth
monitoring any heavier shower that overlaps with the most saturated
locations for increased runoff.

The core of the upper-level low is expected to move out of Texas
tonight. However, the lack of a front and persistence of the
subtropical jet stream over the state means southerly flow will
likely keep the air humid over the area heading into the week ahead
with mild nights and hot and muggy afternoons. The combination of
moisture and warmth will start to promote higher heat indices
(apparent temperatures). Heat indices are forecast to near or top
100F for many in the area Sunday, with the highest chances of heat
indices reaching the 100-105F range in the Winter Garden and Rio
Grande Plains. Trailing convergence from air funneling up towards
the outgoing upper-level low may lead to a few afternoon showers and
storms mainly east of I-35 on Sunday with chances around 20-30
percent.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Broad but weak subtropical ridging will start to build over Gulf and
our area Monday, and gradually slosh its way west through the
upcoming week. This should keep most areas dry for the week, though
southerly flow should continue to sweep in Gulf air beneath the
ridge and may occasionally spark a few seabreeze showers and storms
in the Coastal Plains each late-afternoon. Without much to clear out
the influx of warm air, elevated temperatures and dew points will
continue to drive up heat indices. Highs are forecast to remain in
the 90s with lows in the 70s, but peak heat indices in the 100-105F
range could become more widespread by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Opted to continue with VSCH at AUS, but will keep mention of
precip out at other sites due to lack of confidence. MVFR ceilings
return tonight after 05Z and fall to IFR by 10Z. Confidence is
high in IFR ceilings developing towards sunrise and then lifting
by mid-morning. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast
at 10-12 kts Sunday, along with VFR ceilings returning by 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  90  76  92 /  20  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  90  77  92 /  20  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  90  75  91 /  10  10   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  75  91 /  30  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  90  76  91 /  30  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  90  75  91 /  20  10   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  90  75  91 /  10  10   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  88  76  90 /  10  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  90  77  91 /  20   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  91  76  92 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...MMM