Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
759 FXUS64 KEWX 271102 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 602 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 - Mainly isolated streamer shower activity today & Wednesday, then a good chance of rain mainly along and west of the I-35 Corridor Thursday into Friday. - Locally heavy rain possible Thursday and Friday. - Mild to warm conditions continue through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 SW flow pattern aloft over TX has not been productive for our most populated I-35 corridor areas, but tropical moisture from the Pacific has brought some rounds of light elevated precipitation to mainly the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country Monday. A shortwave trough is ejecting NE across N TX leaving relative stability in its wake. Overnight rain chances have already tapered off, and PWat values mostly around 1.5 inches or less should make for minimal convective activity today despite the continuation of a somewhat low stability pattern aloft. NBM PoPs were trimmed back to show a more CONSShort profile with less activity farther inland. Best rain chances for Tuesday should be S/SE of San Antonio toward George West and Cuero. Despite TS Vance loafing around in the eastern Pacific, its moisture and sheared dynamics are not well in line to target our forecast area, with much of the energy giving us a glancing blow to the NW as it has already done with the ejecting shortwave trough. By late Wednesday the persistent pattern should enable a better onshore winds over the West Gulf bring better moisture transport into central counties while our NE counties still get a bit of a drier ESE wind. So in yesterday`s forecast the model signals were for better rain chances Tuesday than Wednesday, and now that appears to have flipped the other way with better rain chances moving farther inland Wednesday afternoon. This is reflected in the GFS PWat values in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range for 00Z Thursday. NBM cloud cover the next couple days show lower cloud coverage than what we experienced on Monday, to the afternoon temperatures may uptick a few degrees with a few more 80 degree maxes today and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 The next significant shortwave shown in the SW flow aloft pattern is well agreed upon by the 18Z and 00Z deterministic runs with perhaps some of this vorticity being sheared away from TS Vance hanging up just of the coast of Mexico. Certainly the QPF connection to Vance is reflected as there is a large area of elevated QPF moving across the Mexican plateau and to the Rio Grande by early Thursday morning. Unfortunately eastern counties will get another round of ESE low level winds from a persistent surface ridge covering much of the Deep South, leaving only some spotty rain chances while deeper moisture collects generally west of I-35. Out over the Edwards Plateau a solid training of elevated rain along with some pockets of deeper convection is expected occupy Thursday through midday Friday, with 90% plus PoPs in for Thursday and Thursday night. The system dumps most of the heavy rains over this higher terrain area and looks to become less concentrated as the focus expands east to the rest of the CWA Friday. Again this NE ejection pulls the best dynamics out of the area before better moisture profiles can get established farther east. Thus our storm total rains for late Wednesday through Friday night show a solid area of 1-2, isolated 4 inch QPF for Val Verde into parts of Edwards and Kinney Counties, then tapering off quickly to below half an inch before getting to the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Prairies where only a few hundredths to maybe a quarter inch of rain is expected. In the wake of the ejecting shortwave, more isolated daytime convection is depicted with the weak pattern aloft Saturday, then becoming more stable as a low amplitude upper ridge starts to build over TX again Sunday. The late week rain chances will lead to about a 2 to 6 degree downtrend in the max temps for those two days. Outside of that, our temperatures will continue to run mild to warm through Monday before our next good cold front arrives possibly Monday night. There could be a convective squall line to accompany that front, but there remains considerable model variability that goes into the model blends. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 It looks like MVFR cigs are delayed for the San Antonio airports and now expected for the 18Z hour. Can`t rule out a brief ceiling drop, but mid to high clouds are dominating the local area thus far. For KDRT, MVFR cigs continue through the morning and lift to VFR category by 20Z. I believe that KAUS could stay VFR throughout the day and evening. Then, later tonight into Wednesday morning, MVFR cigs are forecast for all sites. There are signs for IFR cigs for the I-35 sites overnight, which we will look closely for following updates. As far as the wind flow, stays from the southeast 5 to 10 knots through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 82 62 84 65 / 10 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 61 85 64 / 10 0 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 61 84 64 / 30 0 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 80 62 81 65 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 66 84 66 / 20 20 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 81 62 84 65 / 30 10 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 61 85 64 / 30 0 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 62 85 63 / 20 10 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 64 83 66 / 30 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 80 64 84 67 / 40 10 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17