Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
400 FXUS64 KEWX 111759 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons through the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 An upper level high continues to sit over West TX today. Surface high pressure is centered over Central TX making winds across our CWA light and variable. The airmass is drier again today with dewpoints 5-10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The upper ridge will continue to dominate during the short term keeping our weather dry. The surface high will drift toward east. Winds will remain light but become southeasterly tonight. With little change in the pattern temperatures will be about the same as the last day or two tonight through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 The upper ridge will remain dominant through the middle of next week. This will keep all forcing to our west and north, so our weather will stay dry. Yesterday, both the GFS and ECMWF had an interesting inverted trough form over the eastern Gulf and move toward the west during the middle of the week. Today, both models develop a similar feature, but it is farther south. If this pans out any rain would be in Mexico. However, models develop a deep upper trough over Rockies and SW US which absorbs the southern wave and moves it across TX Friday. There is still not much lift with this feature and almost no chance for rain. Maybe only a glimmer of hope. Temperatures through the long term period will be fairly persistent varying only a degree or two day to day. Highs will be above normal and lows near normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR and mostly clear skies are expected for much of the TAF periods. Some mid level CIGs are possible by DRT toward the end of the period. Winds will be light and variable for much of the period near I-35, with maybe a stronger trend toward southerly winds to pick up after daybreak Sunday. A slightly tighter gradient is over DRT, and the daytime SE winds could gust to near 20 knots in the afternoon/early evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Dry conditions over the next week along with low afternoon humidity, especially Sunday, will continue to promote the drying of fuels across the region. Despite relatively weak winds, elevated fire weather conditions are possible the next several days, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor where fuels are more drought stressed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 93 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 93 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...05