803
FXUS64 KEWX 171652
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A flattened ridge axis over Central TX will warm up our region
nicely while a zonal pattern from North TX into the Central Plains
will contribute to a breezy south wind in the short term. Dry SSW
winds in the upper part of the mixed layer will add to the warming
effect on the western counties leading to a more comprehensive mix
out of the surface dew points into as low as the upper 50s and
minimum RH values falling into the 20s. Thus we should expect areas
near the Rio Grande climb up into the 100-105 range with not much
contribution from the heat index. Farther east, we`ll transition to
less of a separation from Gulf moisture and see highs slightly above
normals but with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s pushing the heat
index into the 100-107 range. While we wouldn`t encourage extended
hours to be spent outdoors, the impacts, at least for people, could
be minimized by the gusty afternoon winds up to 30 mph that could
help with sweat evaporation. The overnight breezes will also continue
to set up a repeat day for much of Wednesday. However, conditions
late in the afternoon into early evening could feel more
uncomfortable, as a shortwave having passed to the north could lead
to lowering winds by 00Z Thursday. So if the doggie is overdue for a
walk, maybe do it this evening once the pavement heat mellows out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

After a passing shortwave to the north has a chance to light up a
complex of storms over the Red River Wednesday evening, some debris
clouds could drift south and bring a bit more compromise to solar
heating for Thursday. Persistent onshore flow over eastern counties
and possibly a little moisture and instability coming south from the
mid levels Thursday afternoon could lead to a few air mass
thunderstorms that should abate in the early evening. Friday could
see a few more storms spread west into the Rio Grande Plains late in
the day. This is because the H5 ridge tracks east in the wake of the
Wednesday shortwave along the Red River and potentially sends any
elevated mid level moisture pockets westward. Central TX will
probably stay dry Friday, and this could happen over all areas
should the H5 ridge axis trend even closer to Central TX.

By Saturday, medium range deterministic solutions show pretty good
agreement on a mid to upper level ridge being well stacked from the
mid Mississippi River valley to the mid-Atlantic coast. Over the
Pacific NW, a broad upper trough is deepening, and in between TX gets
a deep low to mid level onshore wind which should be good for
promoting not only a few more rain opportunities, but a typical mid-
June high temperature, and some afternoon and evening breezes. This
pattern looks to hold for a few days before mid level ridging tries
to expand east toward the middle of next week. There are no
significant tropical teleconnections foreseen in this pattern, but
some stacking of higher PWat values Monday into next Tuesday might
mean all areas of South Central TX would get at another isolated shot
at a summer shower. While this not be the drought relief pattern we
still need, it at least prolongs the near normal June temperatures
that have seemed to elude us over most of the past several years.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail this afternoon into
tonight with mainly only a few clouds. Low clouds then develop from
the overnight into Wednesday morning with MVFR ceilings across the
I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Conditions then improve to
VFR levels at those sites by late morning. KDRT is expected to stay
VFR through the period. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the
south to southeast through the period with peak gusts in the 20 to
25 kt range. The wind speeds should trend the lightest during the
overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  96  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  95  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 103  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  95  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  93  76  93 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  95  77  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Brady