938
FXUS64 KEWX 041028
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible late Thursday into early Friday
across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Rain chances continue for most areas Saturday, then shift into the
Hill Country and along and east of I-35 on Sunday.

- Warmer early next week, with some low rain chances mainly along
  and east of I-35.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

We will continue to monitor convective trends west of the Rio Grande
early this morning. Hi-res guidance suggests some of this activity
could eventually reach the Rio Grande plains of south central Texas.
Otherwise, the latest data suggests some isolated to scattered
showers and storms may develop farther east into portions of the I-
35 corridor and coastal plains early this morning as some weak
shortwave activity moves in from the southwest. Daytime heating
should bring an increase in coverage of convection to the region as
convective temperatures are reached within a moisture-rich
environment. Slow moving cells will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning strikes.

Late Thursday night into early Friday still looks interesting for
some heavy rainfall potential. Several disturbances ahead of an
upper low will approach the Rio Grande while ahead of the low we see
an increase in precipitable water values up to near 2" for a good
portion of south central Texas. Convection developing off the higher
terrain of Mexico will likely have enough support to move eastward
into the Rio Grande plains late Thursday or very early on Friday.
The global models continue to show some of the higher precipitation
amounts over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains
region as this area will be in closer proximity to the stronger
source of lift. As the upper low slowly moves eastward during the
daytime hours on Friday, some additional lift will move across the
region in the southwesterly flow aloft. This will aid in rain
chances expanding eastward across the remainder of south central
Texas, especially during the peak heating hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The above mentioned upper low will finally begin to lift northward
across west Texas on Saturday. Moisture levels will still remain
high across our region and we should see another round of scattered
afternoon/early evening convection on Saturday. A drying trend is in
store on Sunday, with fairly low chances for rain confined to areas
along and east of I-35/I-37.

The subtropical ridge begins to build over Texas as we head into the
middle of next week. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast along
with a slow warming trend. A few afternoon showers and storms may
develop over the coastal plains region, but chances will likely
remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MVFR and IFR cigs are forecast for the local area terminals
through late morning. Cigs lift to VFR and remain for the rest of
this afternoon into the evening. A light southeasterly flow
persists through the forecast period. There are low to medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the I-35 airports
this afternoon and over the Rio Grande this afternoon and evening.
There are low confidence on the time frame for this occur,
however, it will be clearer with hires model outputs ready for
next cycle.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  73  86  73 /  40  30  40  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  73  86  73 /  40  30  40  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  71  85  71 /  40  30  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            84  71  83  71 /  30  20  40  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  72  84  71 /  10  60  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  72  85  72 /  40  30  30  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  72  83  70 /  20  40  60  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  72  86  72 /  40  20  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  72  87  73 /  50  20  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  73  85  73 /  30  30  50  70
Stinson Muni Airport           87  73  85  72 /  20  20  50  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...17