Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
773 FXUS64 KEWX 202004 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 204 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch has been cancelled for portions of the I-35 and Highway 90 corridors. The Watch continues for the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and along I-35 in Travis and Williamson Counties. The Watch is in effect through late tonight. - Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible over most of the region through this evening. - Rain chances increase late Sunday into Monday as another upper level low pressure system and cold front move in from the west. Some locally heavy rain is still possible for the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 The latest rainfall observations from automated stations and volunteer networks show some fairly widespread 2-3" amounts across western Gillespie into northern Kerr Counties with one report just under 5" near the I-10/Highway 41 intersection. The latest radar trends show an increase in convection across the southern Edwards Plateau with some impressive rainfall rates for this time of year noted in training of convection. Well above normal moisture remains in place with the 12Z DRT sounding recording what is likely a daily record precipitable water value of ~1.84". Concerns for locally heavy rainfall and flooding continue to remain centered over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Incoming hi-res guidance generally favors the above mentioned area as well as a small portion of the I-35 corridor in Travis and Williamson Counties. The ongoing round of showers and storms will gradually move eastward through tonight, with flooding concerns highest where training of storms occurs. As activity moves east of the I-35 corridor, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated. At least a few of the hi-res members also suggest another round of storms Friday morning as the leading edge of a Pacific cold front pushes toward the I-35 corridor. If this second round of storms does develop, heavy rain concerns should be decreased a little given the drier air pushing in behind the front. With the ongoing radar trends and above, we have made some changes to the Flood Watch. We have removed the I-35 counties of Hays, Comal and Bexar and westward along Highway 90 we have removed Medina, Uvalde and Kinney. We did opt to keep Travis and Williamson counties as at least a few hi-res members show some higher precipitation amounts in this region. Rainfall amounts have been lowered a little, with 1-2" and isolated amounts near 5". The focus for the isolated higher amounts still appear to be focused over the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. In addition to the locally heavy rainfall concerns, we could still see a few strong to severe storms from this afternoon into tonight across most of south central Texas. While strong wind gusts and large hail are the main severe weather concerns, a tornado can not be ruled out. Rain chances will be on the decrease from west to east on Friday as the upper level trough axis lifts to our northeast and some drier air in the lower levels behind the Pac front gradually moves in. We did keep some low rain chances in the forecast through most of the day over the coastal plains as moisture levels remain high in this region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Rain chances over the coastal plains continue Saturday morning, with the chance for rain gradually spreading westward into the Rio Grande plains through the rest of the day as a warm front develops. Farther north, drier air in the lower levels should keep rain chances much lower over or non-existent over the Hill Country and portions of I-35. Our attention will then be focused on another upper level storm system set to gradually move in from the west late this weekend into early next week. The system has slowed a bit on the latest runs, so the highest rain chances have also been pushed back into the Sunday evening through Monday afternoon time period. We will need to watch this system for the possibility of locally heavy rainfall given well above normal moisture being in place. The Pacific front associated with this next system should be stronger, so a quicker end to precipitation chances is anticipated from west to east Monday evening. A cooling trend is in store through the remainder of the forecast with highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s to near 70 degrees along with lows in the mid 30s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A complicated forecast is seen this TAF period as a showers and thunderstorms move across the area today into Friday. VCTS are expected around KDRT for the next few hours before the bulk of storm activity shifts east. Timing for storms near the I-35 corridor has been pushed back slightly, with the highest confidence for storms at KAUS. Thunderstorms may shift slightly more north than KSAT/KSSF, but confidence is low and maintained the best timing for activity if this line of storms holds together. A secondary line of storms may form west of I-35 after midnight and move east across terminals near sunrise. Ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR across the majority of the area tonight with some locations expected to reach LIFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 65 81 60 76 / 80 40 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 80 61 76 / 70 40 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 81 61 78 / 60 40 30 30 Burnet Muni Airport 62 77 54 73 / 90 40 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 80 58 76 / 20 10 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 80 58 75 / 80 40 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 65 81 62 78 / 50 30 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 82 61 78 / 60 40 30 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 83 62 79 / 40 40 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 80 64 77 / 50 40 30 40 Stinson Muni Airport 69 82 66 79 / 50 40 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ171>173-183>190-192. && $$ SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM....Platt AVIATION...27