298
FXUS64 KEWX 302359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from this evening through Friday
  evening for most of South Central Texas.

- Some storms tonight and Thursday may also be strong to severe.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then
  decrease heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low over the AZ/NM
border producing southwesterly flow over TX. At the surface there
is a low pressure center near the northwest TX/northeast NM border
with a Pacific front extending from it. Over our CWA the flow is
from the southeast keeping our warm, moist airmass in place. This
morning`s soundings at DRT and FWD show PW above 2 inches which is
in the 90th percentile of the climatological record. The combined
upper low will progress toward the northeast pushing the front
into the northwestern part of our CWA tonight. This will be the
beginning of a wet period. With the high PW air, showers and
thunderstorms will be able to produce locally heavy rain. High
resolution models are showing a line of thunderstorms moving
across our CWA from the northwest to the southeast. In addition to
locally heavy rain some storms could be severe producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail with a tornado also possible. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for all of South Central Texas except the
eastern and southeastern edge counties. The watch is in effect
from this evening until Friday evening. We expect widespread
rainfall totals of 1-4 inches with isolated amounts up to eight
inches. The higher rainfall totals will lead to flash flooding.
The front will exit our CWA Friday morning and stall along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

With the front stalled across Deep South Texas, there will be
continuing chances for rain into the weekend. The excessive PW
values will have moved out of our CWA and rainfall totals will be
more moderate. A few showers may linger into Monday. By Tuesday
the front will have moved away and upper level ridging will move
back over Texas bringing dry weather back. With cloudy skies and
scattered showers the long term period will start off cooler with
highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. From there temperatures will
slowly increase reaching the low to mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Quite the tricky aviation forecast for this package as the main
concerns remain the convection from a line of storms approaching
from the Hill Country overnight and MVFR timing for all TAF
sites. For KAUS have extended the PROB30s for the next few hours
due to recent radar trends. Otherwise the previous aviation
forecast remains on track for the I-35 sites with main windows of
convection likely from the early morning hours into the afternoon
with a bit of a lull and then some more redevelopment towards the
end of the TAF period. Confidence is higher for the first wave
with prevailing TSRA. VCSH and -SHRAs are noted during the lull
as could still see lighter activity with VCSH continuing
throughout the forecast. Additionally, MVFR CIGs expected to
develop by 05/06Z overnight and continue along with visibilities
being reduced from the convection over the terminals. VFR CIGs
should return by the end of the forecast period though wouldn`t
be surprised if MVFR CIGs linger longer. Winds may temporarily
increase with variable flow during any rain and storm activity as
well. Otherwise, outside of any convective influences, S/SE winds
of 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts can be expected. For KDRT expect
convective activity much earlier with PROB30 for 02 to 07Z with
TSRA prevailing noted by 07Z and continuing into sunrise
tomorrow. MVFR CIGs also look likely during this timeframe before
activity moves off to the south and east and VFR CIGs return in
by the afternoon hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  91  73  82 /  70  90  90  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  91  72  82 /  60  90  90  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  91  72  81 /  50  90  90  90
Burnet Muni Airport            73  83  70  79 /  80  90  70  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  90  70  85 /  90  50  30  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  88  72  81 /  70  90  90  90
Hondo Muni Airport             74  85  71  81 /  60  90  80  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  92  71  82 /  50  90  90  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  73  85 /  40  90  90  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  88  73  81 /  50  80  90  90
Stinson Muni Airport           77  90  73  82 /  40  90  90  90

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-183>193-
202>208-217>221-223-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...CJM