632
FXUS62 KFFC 290023
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
823 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026


...New 00Z Aviation Discussion and Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM EDT for
    portions of far north Georgia.

  - The threat for storms will continue tonight with the main
    threats being strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
    frequent lightning across portions of north and eastern
    Georgia.

  - Heat impacts will be felt again across portions of central
    Georgia tomorrow. Heat Advisories may once again be needed as
    heat indices are forecast to be above 105.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A line of strong storms is moving through south-central Tennessee
and is expected to enter far north Georgia within the next hour.
The environment in far north Georgia will be favorable for strong
to severe storms to continue into the forecast area, with SBCAPE
between 3000-4000 J/kg and 0-1 km shear of 20-25 kts. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threat with any severe storms that
develop, along with very frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain. 0-1 SRH values are also around 100 m2/s2, so these storms
could also exhibit some rotation and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
portions of north Georgia for an area north of a rough line from
Rome to Alpharetta to Athens and will be in effect until 1 AM.
With the loss of diurnal instability, uncertainty remains on how
long these storms will hold together. If they persist into early
morning, a downstream expansion of the watch may be warranted.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Folks, it`s warm out there. Heat indices are into the triple digits
across much of north and central Georgia this afternoon with the ATL
airport sitting at a just ~lovely~ 105 F heat index as of this
writing. Temperatures are in the 90s and dewpoints are in the 70s.
The good news up front is that some relief from the heat is on the
way, though it will take a day or two to filter into the area. The
only other things of note is that things likely look a little hazy
up above - wildfire smoke from the Pacific NW is filtering around
the ridge and being carried by the jet over us. Another burst of
this is expected to move in later tonight per "smoke allowing"
convective guidance, though again this should mostly remain well
above us and not impact us on the ground.

Other weather story we are monitoring is convective chances later
tonight. I honestly wish I could say we had a bit more certainty
given we are only a few hours from when storms may push in, but
model guidance remains boom or bust, with more bust than boom. Aloft
we have a shortwave embedded in the jet that has given us a nice jet
streak within the NW flow around the large ridge over the central
CONUS. Front associated with this has already started to fire some
convection in KY and WV that -should- be the main player for us
later tonight. These storms are expected to congeal into a line of
storms that pushes south and eventually southeast, moving into the
area from NC/TN after accelerating ahead of the frontal boundary.
Where the big uncertainty begins is as it approaches the state -
many CAMs completely dissipate the system, in some cases before it
even reaches the border. Others hold it together briefly into the
state but have it quickly fall apart after that. This is certainly
possible, given the system should outrun both forcing and better
shear and run into our area after sunset, meaning surface based
parcels will be more challenging to get going. However, there are
some biases here to consider, especially with over mixing of
moisture, which could be having an outsized impact on the convective
coverage of these models. The other side of the coin is the REFS
(RRFS ensemble), which does show ~40% of members holding storms
together into north Georgia, and keeping even 20-30% chances into
the Atlanta metro.

So, with all that said, the current forecast leans towards that 30-
40% chance of seeing something across northern Georgia. Given we
will still have ~3000 J/kg of instability to work with ahead of
the line well into the overnight hours, storms may remain vigorous
with some isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A Slight Risk
remains in effect for NE GA with a Marginal Risk extending into
the metro and the rest of N GA.

Relatively cooler and drier air is expected to begin filtering into
northern Georgia by early morning tomorrow. The diurnal cycle will
slow down the progression of the front into the area through the
afternoon, so looks like portions of central Georgia will have to
wait another day to get relief from the heat. While heat indices
should "only" reach into the 90s across north Georgia and the metro
on Wednesday, they will go soaring once again into the triple digits
across portions of central Georgia. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed once again, with issuance later tonight after the current
advisories expire. Some afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
across central Georgia during the afternoon ahead of the stalled
outflow boundary from tonight`s system. This could put a damper on
the worst of the heat, especially if coverage is more than
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

By Wed night the cold front that moved into the area in the short
term will still be moving south through the state moving into South
GA/N FL by Thu morning. This boundary stalls near the FL/GA border
but it does usher in some drier air which should keep North and
Central GA precipitation free through Friday night. Temps are not
expected to cool to much Thu/Fri with high temps still expected in
the upper 80s to middle 90s but the Apparent T (feels like temps)
will be much lower.

By Sat the next frontal boundary moving east out of the lower to mid
MS river valley moves into W GA just before daybreak. The main low
pressure center moves east into western KY at the same time. With
the close proximity of the low center to NW GA this frontal boundary
should stay fairly organized as it moves into the region. The
current forecast models show this front stalling across E/SE GA and
the Carolinas through Tues keeping the area in  moist S to SW flow
through day 7. This will keep precip chances elevated through day
7.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions persist across all TAF sites to start the area. A
cu field between 050-060 will diminish in coverage under upper
level clouds. A line of storms is entering far north GA, which
will have the potential to impact the northern TAF sites. Impacts
appear to be most likely at AHN/PDK, where there is a TEMPO for
TSRA in effect from 01-05Z. Strong winds could furthermore
accompany these storms. Uncertainty remains on how well these
storms will hold together, with a PROB30 for TSRA at ATL from
03-06Z. Some elevated cloud cover will persist in the morning,
and will clear in the afternoon as a boundary moves southward
through the state. Outside of TSRA, winds will be W/NW through the
period at 5-10 kts.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing/coverage of overnight TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  94  69  91 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         77  92  71  91 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     68  84  59  83 /  30   0   0   0
Cartersville    75  90  66  88 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        79  96  74  94 /   0  20  10   0
Gainesville     74  91  67  90 /  30   0   0   0
Macon           78  96  72  94 /   0  10  10   0
Rome            74  90  67  87 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  76  92  69  91 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         78  99  74  96 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King