365
FXUS62 KFFC 021033
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - An unseasonably warm and moist airmass will bring areas of
    morning fog today and increasing rain chances today and
    Saturday.

  - The potential for heavy rainfall and perhaps localized flash
    flooding increases by Sunday and Monday, though uncertainty
    remains regarding the placement of heaviest rainfall.

  - Temperatures trend to more fall-like levels next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Today brings unseasonably warm and moist conditions as deep moisture
continues to surge northward as the midlevel ridge slides eastward
in advance of an incoming shortwave trough. What this translates
into is summery 70s dewpoints and PWATs quickly rebounding into
the anomalous 1.75 - 2.25" range, which would be in excess of the
90th percentile and near daily record maximums for early October.
Initially, this airmass will support areas of low clouds and fog
this morning, particularly across southeastern and eastern
counties, though forward progress will be monitored as it
builds northwestward. If fog extent and density increases
substantially, a Dense Fog Advisory could be warranted for
portions of the area later this morning.

While the trough and associated surface front will remain displaced
to our northwest today, sufficient heating (as highs warm to near 90
for most areas) and resultant instability this afternoon will
produce scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms that will
likely persist to some degree into tonight.

The surface front will make little progress southward on Saturday,
becoming more or less stationary just to the north of the state.
Still, with anomalously high PWATs remaining near climatological
maximums, additional scattered diurnally-enhanced showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall
would be possible given the environment. With that said, the risk
for more widespread heavier rainfall looks to hold off until just
beyond the end of the current short term period when the front
sags a bit farther southward and a shortwave lifts northeastward
across the area on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

By Sat night tropical moisture will be entrenched across the
southeastern U.S with the frontal boundary stalled just north of the
state. The front is expected to stay near the North GA border
through Mon morning before it begins to make its way southward into
S GA/N FL Tue. With this in mind the frontal boundary will act as a
block not allowing the tropical moisture to move out of the region
while moisture continues to flow from the Gulf in the southerly
flow. This will put GA in a prime location to see multiple inches of
precipitation Sun and Mon across the entire area then continuing
across central GA Tue Tue through Thu.

The models have begun to settle in on South/Central GA seeing the
highest precip totals through the middle of next week. Currently
seeing precip totals in the 2 to 4.5 inch range across central GA
and 1.5 to 3 inches across North GA through Day 7. Due to the
limited amount of precipitation we have seen over the past few
weeks, central GA can handle a bit more rain than north GA but 2 to
4.5 inches is still a lot of water in just 3 to 5 days. Will still
need to keep a close eye on the flooding potential across the area.
WPC has issued an Excessive Rain Outlook for the entire area Sat and
Sun and across portions of central GA MOn.  Still not seeing much in
the way of instability across the area but we could still see some
thunderstorms Fri and Sat. SPC only has us under a general risk of
severe which continues to look good through the weekend.

By daybreak Tue the the frontal boundary will be moving south
ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass into North GA. Temps
will beginning to cool as the precip moves in Sat. High temps Sun
expected in the 70s to middle 80s with high Mon through Thu expected
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

IFR cigs are largely prevalent at TAF sites this morning with
patches of MVFR cigs intermingling. Gradual improvement is
expected by 15-17Z with VFR expected through the evening before
additional cigs of at least MVFR are possibly by 10-12Z Saturday.
Sct SHRA and iso TSRA will increase in coverage most appreciably
after 18-20Z and persist into evening. Winds will remain SE to SSE
through the day at 4-8 kts becoming light and vrb to near calm
overnight.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  68  86  65 /  20  20  60  80
Atlanta         87  70  85  69 /  30  20  50  70
Blairsville     83  63  81  62 /  20  20  60  70
Cartersville    89  68  87  67 /  20  20  60  70
Columbus        88  71  87  70 /  40  20  50  60
Gainesville     87  69  84  66 /  10  20  60  80
Macon           89  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  60
Rome            90  67  87  66 /  20  20  60  70
Peachtree City  88  68  86  68 /  30  20  50  60
Vidalia         90  72  86  71 /  60  40  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW