514
FXUS62 KFFC 141102
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Low clouds and patchy fog for the morning commute with reduced
    visibilities (4-5 SM) possible.

  - Southwesterly flow continues with diurnally driven convection
    this afternoon. Strong thunderstorms possible this evening
    with lightning and gusty winds being the main threats.

  - Localized flooding risk increases through the weekend with
    numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Discussion:

Current satellite analysis shows areas of low clouds and over
portions of western and central Georgia pushing into eastern
Georgia. These low clouds will continue into the morning commute
with reduced visibilities (4-5 SM) possible as isolated areas of
patchy fog form in areas where the heaviest rainfall fell
yesterday/ in low lying areas. Should see this patchy fog/low
clouds begin to lift through the late morning. Persistent
southwesterly flow continues today as the area is between a weaker
Bermuda high and the cut off low over the gulf ultimately
funneling warm moist air into Georgia from the gulf. Expecting
showers and thunderstorms to be diurnally driven again this
afternoon and evening with enhancement from the sea breeze over
central Georgia. Hi-res models have been showing the potential for
an area of more organized convection over TN and northern AL
pushing into NW GA this evening just before sunset. This is in
association with the troughing feature pushing just north of the
area before being mainly absorbed into the main flow overnight.
Shear values remain marginal (20-30kt) so not expecting too much
of a severe risk with this potential line but with forecast
soundings showing DCAPE values ~1000 there could be one or two
severe warnings needed if the cluster is able to hold together.
CAPE values today continue to range from 2500-3500 J/kg as the
warm moist air filters into the area. Above average PWATs and the
numerous nature of these showers and thunderstorms will lead to an
increased localized flooding risk in addition to the rainfall
already received over the past two weeks. Looking at a similar
pattern into Sunday as the southwesterly flow continues.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Enhanced moisture will continue across the region under the
    influence of southwesterly flow.

  - Diurnally driven rain chances expected through the extended
    period.

  - High temperatures expected near seasonal norms with with lows
    remaining 3-7 deg above.

Moist southwesterly surface to upper level flow continues through
the extended forecast. This SWLY flow will keep conditions wet and
humid across north and central Georgia. This moist flow will also
keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable waters in the
1.5 and 2.5 inch range through day 7. With all this being said we
will continue with Diurnally driven precip chances (60% - 80%)
across the area each day.

While the threat for organized severe weather will be low, a few
storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and periods of heavy rain. With
saturated soils and efficient rain making storms we could see some
river flooding and some isolated flash flooding as well. Patchy fog
will also be possible during the overnight and early morning hours,
particularly where soils are saturated from previous rainfall and
cloud cover dissipates.

Because of the continued precip chances daytime highs will be mainly
in the 80s to lower 90s each day with night time lows in the
upper 60s to middle 70s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

LIFR conditions continue this morning but should begin to
lift/dissipate by 14z to mid level MVFR. By 18z should see low end
VFR ceilings ahead of evening showers and thunderstorms. Best
timing on the TSRA is beginning between 20-22z and ending between
00-02z. Overnight should see skies scatter out before IFR ceilings
again tomorrow morning. Southwest winds generally under 10 kts are
expected to prevail through the period.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection and IFR tomorrow morning.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  69  86  70 /  60  50  70  20
Atlanta         86  70  86  71 /  70  60  70  30
Blairsville     82  64  81  64 /  70  70  90  30
Cartersville    87  68  86  69 /  70  60  70  30
Columbus        88  71  89  71 /  60  40  70  30
Gainesville     84  70  84  69 /  80  60  80  30
Macon           88  70  89  71 /  70  30  70  30
Rome            86  68  86  69 /  70  70  70  30
Peachtree City  86  68  86  69 /  70  50  70  30
Vidalia         89  72  91  74 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Hernandez