798
FXUS62 KFFC 141738
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Increasing thunderstorm chances through the period.

  - Heat index values over 100 remain likely through the weekend
with some areas potentially seeing values of 105-110 for 4 hrs or
more each day.

  - Watching for modest tropical development along the Florida
Georgia Coastline moving westward into The Gulf.

Starting off the short term with fairly rinse and repeat conditions
Monday. Modest high pressure and mid level ridging keep temperatures
hot with flow generally from the W to SW (For the nerds out there
this feature is nicely visible on a 2PVU surface chart). Dewpoints
in the 70s and temperatures in the mid to even upper 90s will mean
apparent temperatures could reach over 105 for extended periods of
time Monday. A heat advisory has been issued for most of central and
east central Georgia.

Precipitation chances Monday remain suppressed, particularly in
western Georgia where the high is stronger though isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and far
northern CWA. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Conditions change Tuesday as we watch for an area of modest tropical
development off the GA and FL coast. Models are in fairly high
agreement given this feature hasnt even formed yet, though I would
remain skeptical until something does indeed form. Either way, lets
assume that something does form. This feature will move/drift along
the base of the high bringing southeast flow into the CWA. This flow
will be very moist with PWATs 2"+. Near surface convergence from the
SE flow meeting W flow will likely trigger a slow moving (possibly
stationary) line of thunderstorms stretching from NE to the SW. The
exact location of this feature will be in question until the
tropical low becomes more apparent, however current models really
want to set this up along the I85 corridor including the ATL metro.
Though flow isn`t that strong, definitely recommend remaining
vigilant for efficient and slow moving rainmakers in urban areas.
Similar, though more robust, setups have produced notable flooding
in the past.

Heat indices on Tuesday will be dependent on thunderstorm coverage.
Areas that do not receive precipitation/cloud coverage could be hot
and may require further extension of the heat advisory. Be prepared
for Heat indices of 105 to 110 through mid week.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected each afternoon and
evening through the long term, with some uncertainty towards the end
of the week.

  - Watching for tropical development in the Gulf by the middle of
the week.

Forecast:

Models continue to indicate that the middle of the week will be
relatively wet, with eyes on the Gulf coast for development of a
coastal low that will have at least a small chance of developing
some kind of tropical characteristics before moving back onto land
over the Southeast. Dirty subtropical ridge remains in place on
Wednesday aloft with a low level disturbance sliding underneath it
from the east. This disturbance looks to trigger potential
development of the aforementioned surface low that may have a chance
of becoming a tropical or subtropical system as it slow progresses
to the east through Thursday, before general model consensus would
bring it onshore. Notable on Wednesday across some of the guidance
is a convergence zone with enhanced PWATs greater than 2" that lies
directly across northern Georgia, which would have potential for
enhanced precipitation rates. Otherwise, plenty of moisture and
general lift from the disturbance would lead to rain and
thunderstorm chances that are widespread across the CWA.

Some uncertainty that needs to be discussed going into Thursday and
Friday that will likely revolve around the potential development of
the system and the exact track of the low level disturbance,
regardless of development. Further west tracks do indicate the
potential for some -relatively- lower PWATs that could rotate
about the periphery of the system and bring some reduction in rain
chances versus a more scattered or widespread afternoon PoP that
is currently in the forecast. If a tropical system does develop,
there also could be some subsidence that is able to form around
the edges of the system due to the larger scale circulation that
would act to suppress convection to an extent. Either way,
moisture does look to be in place at the surface that would be
sufficient for at least some afternoon storms each day, regardless
of the actual track of the disturbance.

This system dissipates into the weekend as it pushes onshore, but
the moisture it pulled remains behind and settles across the
southeast as the pattern shifts to southwesterly flow around a
southerly displaced Bermuda high. Diurnal rain and thunderstorm
chances should remain through the weekend.

Last, one positive is that as model confidence seems to be
increasing in seeing fairly widespread afternoon rain and storm
coverage Wednesday into Thursday, forecast high temps have been
coming down and bringing heat index values down with them. It still
looks like it will remain warm with heat indices in the triple
digits in many areas, but the probability of seeing heat advisories
continue through the middle of the week is decreasing.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Showers to the west should stay out of the metro and the metro
should be relatively dry through the evening. Winds are currently
NNW to NNE but kept them at NNW for now but should see them switch
over to NE tomorrow and then E into the afternoon as a potential
band of precip affects the area. Currently have a prob30 in as
early as 20z and will likely last into tomorrow evening.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing and coverage.
Medium to high on easterly winds.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  73  93  73 /  20  20  50  40
Atlanta         96  76  94  75 /  10  10  40  40
Blairsville     89  67  88  68 /  20  10  70  50
Cartersville    95  73  95  73 /  10  10  30  30
Columbus        97  76  97  75 /  10  10  40  30
Gainesville     95  73  93  74 /  20  10  50  50
Macon           97  74  94  73 /  20  20  40  20
Rome            94  72  95  73 /  20  10  20  30
Peachtree City  96  73  95  72 /  10  10  40  30
Vidalia         97  73  94  74 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Hernandez