504
FXUS62 KFFC 071750
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Above-normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday ahead
   of a cold front.

 - Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will
   increase ahead of the front tonight into Wednesday, though
   rainfall totals will be limited and not bring substantial
   drought relief.

 - Drier, more Fall-like conditions return late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today brings a day of transition as the pattern begins to shift away
from the persistent easterly flow that has been in place for the last
several days. Upper ridging that has extended up the eastern
seaboard becomes flattened along the Gulf coastal states today as a
large scale trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
the surface high pressure that had been the source of our "in-situ"
wedge-like pattern is shoved well eastward into the Atlantic ahead
of the approaching surface cold front. Other than a few spotty
sprinkles or light rain showers in far north Georgia, most areas
will remain dry today. More breaks in cloud cover this afternoon
will allow temperatures to warm markedly into the low to mid 80s in
north Georgia and even the upper 80s in Middle Georgia, well above
normal.

The cold front pushes into the Tennessee Valley late this evening
and quickly into far northwest Georgia by early Wednesday morning.
Scattered shower coverage will begin to increase across northwest
Georgia by this evening and transition farther southward into
western and north central Georgia during the overnight hours. Only
an isolated, brief thunderstorm is possible given meager
instability, and shower coverage should gradually become more
isolated through sunrise Wednesday. While any rain will be
appreciated given ongoing drought conditions, QPF will remain
limited with this overnight activity, likely a quarter inch or less
for most.

The cold front makes fast southward progress during the day
Wednesday and as such will bifurcate the CWA by afternoon. Given
this quick progression, the best opportunity for additional isolated
to widely scattered convection will be generally south of the I-85
to I-20 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening. Again, QPF will be
fairly limited with only localized amounts over a quarter of an inch
possible. As the arrival of the cooler, drier postfrontal airmass
will largely hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday, highs on
Wednesday will again warm well above normal, ranging from the low
80s north to upper 80s in southern counties. A few spots could even
touch 90 degrees in far southern areas Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Moving into Thursday morning and the start of the extended range,
north and central Georgia will be post-frontal, with weakly
northwesterly flow at the mid-levels working to usher in a
comparatively drier airmass. A deepening mid-level shortwave
trekking across the Southeast is likely to interact with the
lingering baroclinic zone off of the Carolina coast, organizing into
a more defined surface low pressure system into the weekend. Best
moisture and forcing will thus be relegated to coastal Georgia and
along the eastern Gulf, so chances (15-20%) for further showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon will be isolated to our far
southern/southeastern zones.

The aforementioned southern-stream mid-level shortwave looks to
phase with a digging northern-stream counterpart late Friday/early
Saturday, closing off and resulting in highly amplified troughing
spanning much of ECONUS. Resultant deep, strongly northwesterly mid-
level flow will funnel dry, continental air into the Gulf states
from Friday on, effacing any remnant rain chances. Conditions for
the majority of the long term period will be mild and pleasant as a
result, with highs in the 70s to near 80 -- warming just a tick each
day through the weekend -- and morning lows in the upper 40s (!) to
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A few MVFR cigs still prevalent as of 18Z in the ATL area and at
AHN, which will continue to scatter out and improve to VFR over
the next hour or so. ISO to SCT -SHRA possible at ATL area sites
after 06Z Wednesday with most likely time frame 08-12Z Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. These SHRA could briefly lead to MVFR
conditions. AHN and MCN could also see some fog early Wed AM. VFR
conditions expected after the front passes. Winds remain SE 5-8
kts before shifting to SW and then W/NW after the front passes.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in SHRA timing and CIGs Wednesday morning.
High confidence on other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  66  82  59 /   0  20  30  20
Atlanta         83  68  84  63 /  10  20  20  10
Blairsville     75  63  76  56 /  10  50  20  10
Cartersville    84  68  82  62 /  20  40  10  10
Columbus        86  68  87  66 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     79  67  82  60 /  10  30  20  10
Macon           86  67  85  64 /   0   0  20  30
Rome            85  68  84  61 /  30  50  20  10
Peachtree City  84  66  85  62 /  10  10  20  20
Vidalia         87  66  89  65 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Culver