466
FXUS62 KFFC 140744
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

 - Isolated areas of Critical Fire Weather are possible across
   eastern Georgia, but RH values are not expected to be as low as
   the past few days.

 - Dry and warm conditions into Saturday, with highs generally in
   the 60s.

 - Widespread rainfall is likely Saturday night through Monday
   morning. The threat for severe weather is low, but non-zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Conditions remain fairly benign through the first part of the short
term today. Upper level northwest flow around the ridge and surface
high pressure moving east-southeast will keep conditions dry with
high clouds building through the day. Have reduced dewpoints for
the afternoon after review of the last few days. Southeast flow
through the day may bring in some weak moisture, though given the
continued dry conditions would not be surprised if we saw a return
of widespread 25% afternoon RH values.

Clouds begin to move in this afternoon, or as early as late morning,
though PoPs don`t begin to enter the area until late tonight. A line
of showers (even a few thunderstorms in central Georgia) is likely
to be moving through during the morning and afternoon Sunday.
Thunderstorm potential is limited, however easterly flow building
along the southern flank of the appalachians will likely develop a
weak wedge further reducing convective potential across much of
north Georgia. Precip onset time does show some uncertainty,
mainly due to model uncertainty in the forward speed of the upper
level shortwave and the surface low. Would likely lean to an
earlier onset of scattered light showers beginning before sunrise
on Sunday with isentropic upglide over the wedge. Any precip
associated with this initial push will likely be limited.

Total rainfall with the line of showers and storms will be greatest
where we can get active convection (central Georgia) and most likely
rainfall amounts currently sit between 0.5" and 1" in the wedge and
0.75" to 1.25" in central Georgia and the highest peaks in Northeast
Georgia. Isolated higher amounts are possible, especially with any
thunderstorm development. The probability of greater than 1.5" of
rainfall remains below 15% for all but the Columbus area of west
central Georgia.

Thunderstorm potential will likely be limited even outside the
wedge. Pre-frontal rain showers are likely to spoil the environment
and cloud cover/early morning timing is likely part of the cause for
the probs of >500 J/Kg of CAPE less than 20 percent. Shear
parameters, as per usual, are best along and south of the wedge
which may still require keeping an eye for an isolated strong storm.
Should the line move through quicker (as they tend to do),
thunderstorms activity will be less likely given the out of phase
diurnal heating (vice versa should the line move slower). Showers
likely stick around the area through Monday morning.

Temps will remain elevated above normal through the period with
highs in the 60s (40s and 50s at higher elevations and within the
strongest portions of the wedge), and low will be moderated with
increasing cloud coverage, holding in the upper 40s Tonight and
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

The extended period begin with the frontal system from the short
term exiting the state. We will still see some left over showers
across the area Sun night, but by daybreak Mon, all the precip
should have moves off the GA/SC coast along with the trailing cold.
front. High pressure begins to build in directly on the heals of
this exiting front and dominates the weather pattern through the
middle of next week.

There is a weak frontal boundary that moves south out of KY/TN Wed
and pushes into N GA Wed night/Thu morning but its is lacking any
decent moisture. We may see an isolated shower or two from this
boundary Thu but most locations will just see increased cloud cover.
This boundary stalls across central GA and ushers in a wave that
ejects out of central TX Thu and across AL/GA Friday. This wave
will give us our best chance of precipitation next week. Right now
this wave looks fairly weak with little instability and not much
deep layer moisture. For now will keep just a 20-30% chance of
precip for day 7 with no thunder.

Temps remain warm next week with high each day in the 60s and 70s.
May even see some lower 80s across central portions of the state Thu
and Friday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR through day today with increasing BKN VFR cigs through the
evening and overnight. Winds SW at 3 to 8kts through tonight,
picking back up early Sunday morning to 5 to 10 kts. SHRA move
into area between the 24 and 30 hr timestep with cigs beginning to
fall towards MVFR concurrently.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  46  57  47 /   0  50 100  70
Atlanta         62  48  61  49 /   0  60 100  60
Blairsville     58  41  53  42 /  10  70 100  40
Cartersville    62  47  60  47 /   0  70 100  40
Columbus        67  51  67  51 /   0  60 100  60
Gainesville     61  45  53  46 /  10  60 100  50
Macon           66  50  67  50 /   0  40 100  70
Rome            66  50  64  48 /  10  70 100  30
Peachtree City  63  48  64  49 /   0  60 100  60
Vidalia         69  50  73  54 /   0  20  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM