040
FXUS62 KFFC 171057
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Oppressive heat continues through much of the upcoming work
   week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday evening,
   and additional heat headlines are likely thereafter.

 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH are possible in North Georgia
   on Monday.

 - Limited thunderstorm chances are expected through mid-week
   before increasing slightly late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Something a little different may be on tap for Monday as a change of
pace from our previous few days of heat and diurnally driven storms.
There will be some of that - especially the heat - but a more
organized storm structure may progress into north Georgia this
evening into the early overnight hours, bringing with it the chance
for some strong to severe winds. Other areas outside of this could
still see some diurnally driven convection, though coverage isn`t
expected to be any more than isolated chances where a few places
make it to convective T.

Let`s talk heat first. The Heat Advisory remains in place across
basically everywhere outside of the mountains today. Surface
moisture is a bit lower as a pocket of drier air rotates into the
area this afternoon allowing for some afternoon mixing of "drier"
air down to the surface. Emphasis on those quotation marks.
Dewpoints will still be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but that`s
better than the mid to upper 70s we`ve seen at times the past few
days. Lower moisture content means surface temperatures can increase
even further under the dome of high pressure, so expect upper 90s to
lower triple digit air temperatures. This will give us heat indices
well into the triple digits by the afternoon. Most places should
more than exceed 105, and a few isolated locations may breach 110,
though this doesn`t appear it will be long enough or widespread
enough for Extreme Heat Warnings. Still, we`ve seen numerous days of
high heat with little overnight recovery, so place continue to use
caution when working or playing outdoors, and check in on those more
vulnerable neighbors if you can.

Moving to the thunderstorm threat for today, still expect to see a
few diurnally driven storms pop up across the area, especially in
western and central Georgia where moisture content is a bit better.
Most convective guidance hints at this, and the RRFS (which has
seemed to perform decently for coverage in these more saturated
environments) pops isolated storms in the aforementioned locations.
These storms will be capable of brief periods of strong winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The more organized threat
will be later into the evening and early overnight hours. A frontal
boundary will be pushing towards the CWA with moisture convergence
ahead of it bringing PWATs upwards of 2". NW flow aloft over the top
of this will see a little vortmax transition through it which may
aid in storm formation along this frontal boundary during the
afternoon near the TN/KY border. Mean HREF SBCAPE is 2000-2500+ J/kg
into far north Georgia with some decent shear aloft, so these storms
are likely to push south into portions of north Georgia, bringing
some impacts in the form of strong to severe winds. If coverage is
great enough, some cold pool mergers may aid in creating a more
linear system with outflow that could drive additional convection.
SPC has a Slight Risk that extends into far north Georgia for
damaging wind gusts, and a Marginal Risk for the same threat extends
to approximately I-20.

This is where things get a bit more uncertain. Storms will likely
move southward into the slightly drier airmass we have in place.
SBCAPE falls off substantially into Georgia as you move south,
though some elevated instability does remain. Shear also decreases
with southward extend. Storms should begin to fade after sunset.
However, some maintenance may be possible via the cold pool lift and
the elevated instability. So, the tl;dr for this is that storms may
fade quickly after sunset across north Georgia, but how quickly that
happens will determine just how far south they can get. The metro is
in that gray zone of "will they won`t they" hold together to bring
some rain and gusty winds.

Going into Tuesday, the front that brought storms should move
through much of the CWA and bring slightly cooler temperatures to
some locations across north Georgia. Temperatures along and north of
I-85 may "only" make it into the low to mid 90s, but dewpoints will
remain "only" in the upper 60s as drier air filters in behind the
front. It will still be hot, but we may finally be able to drop some
of the Heat Advisories, which is why an extension into Tuesday has
not happened. Moisture may still hang on into portions of eastern
and central Georgia and surface temps will be a bit warmer, so Heat
Advisories may need to be continued in these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Hot and humid. Highs will remain in the 90s through the long term.
The big concern with be the heat index values which will rise into
the triple digits through the work week. Expect apparent
temperatures between 100-105. Luckily, a front is set to take aim at
the area towards the end of the week. While temperatures will remain
in the 90s, the front will help ease Heat Index values out of the
triple digits.

Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon will continue through
the week, though it appears to be lowest on Wednesday and Thursday.
By the time the weekend rolls around, the front will dip far enough
south to give us better chances for afternoon thunderstorms with a
source of lift present in the area. We`ll need to keep an eye on the
developing dynamics through the week to keep an eye on the severe
threat, but as of right now there doesn`t appear to be any sign of a
significant outbreak.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR through TAF period outside of TSRA concerns. Winds will pick
up this afternoon from W to NW at 6-11 kts. Cu field should
develop for afternoon as well. PROB30 has been introduced for
metro TAF sites into the evening for TSRA potential.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence TSRA. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          98  76  96  72 /  10  10   0   0
Atlanta         97  78  94  73 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     90  69  86  65 /  30  30   0   0
Cartersville    98  75  94  69 /  20  30   0   0
Columbus        97  78  97  73 /  20  20   0   0
Gainesville     97  76  94  71 /  20  20   0   0
Macon           97  77  96  73 /  20  10   0   0
Rome            97  75  93  69 /  20  40   0   0
Peachtree City  97  76  94  70 /  20  20   0   0
Vidalia         99  78  98  75 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Lusk